AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
I am not going to quibble over a 90 day window when we are talking about years of delays. And for a premium service, delayed opening is probably preferable than opening in haste.
AoD
Toronto Union Pearson Express | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | MMM Group Limited
I am not going to quibble over a 90 day window when we are talking about years of delays. And for a premium service, delayed opening is probably preferable than opening in haste.
AoD
TOareaFan
Superstar
I was not quibbling, it was meant as a compliment.....I think it is a very good way to project for long term projects....pinning actual dates just opens up controversy when there need not be one.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Oh I can think of several case studies of that - e.g. the then new Hong Kong International Airport. It was a disaster.
AoD
TOareaFan
Superstar
June 6 also happens to be D Day.....and since a Saturday launch is likely designed to be a first day on a less busy day of week there are likely gonna be some empty seats.....would be a nice PR move to allow Military Vets to ride for free on launch day (IMO)
News Release
Union Pearson Express to Launch June 6
April 22, 2015
New Service Will Strengthen the Economy, Ease Congestion, Foster Tourism and Create Jobs
Union Pearson Express (UP Express) will go into service June 6, giving people a fast, reliable option for travelling between Toronto Pearson International Airport and the city's downtown core.
Premier Kathleen Wynne made the announcement today while taking part in the inaugural ride on the dedicated express train. The service will launch in time to serve visitors to the 2015 Pan Am and Parapan Am Games.
The government is investing more than $130 billion over 10 years in public infrastructure, the largest infrastructure investment in Ontario's history.
UP Express is one of $16 billion worth of projects underway to modernize transit infrastructure in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.
Through Moving Ontario Forward, the government is investing an additional $31.5 billion over 10 years to build transit, transportation and other priority infrastructure inside and outside the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, supporting over 20,000 jobs per year on average in construction and related industries.
On April 16 the government announced it is able to enhance funding for Moving Ontario Forward because it is acting on recommendations from Ed Clark's review of government assets. This will unlock $4 billion, every dollar of which would be set aside for transit and transportation infrastructure.
With the launch of UP Express, Toronto will join the ranks of global cities with a seamless airport-to-downtown connection -- enhancing the region's competitive advantage, reducing gridlock and promoting tourism. The trip between Canada's two busiest transportation hubs will take just 25 minutes, and trains will depart every 15 minutes.
Making the largest infrastructure investment in Ontario's history is part of the government's plan to build Ontario up. The four-part plan includes investing in people's talents and skills, building new public infrastructure like roads and transit, creating a dynamic, supportive environment where business thrives, and building a secure retirement savings plan.
QUICK FACTS
UP Express is forecast to carry 2.35 million passengers a year by 2018.
Toronto Pearson and Union Station are expected to serve 190 million travellers a year by 2031 — almost twice the current annual traffic.
UP Express is expected to remove 1.2 million car trips from roads across the region in its first year of operation alone.
The $16 billion worth of transit expansion and improvement projects underway in the GTHA includes UP Express, Eglinton Crosstown LRT, York VIVA Bus Rapid Transit and Union Station Revitalization.
Union Pearson Express to Launch June 6
April 22, 2015
New Service Will Strengthen the Economy, Ease Congestion, Foster Tourism and Create Jobs
Union Pearson Express (UP Express) will go into service June 6, giving people a fast, reliable option for travelling between Toronto Pearson International Airport and the city's downtown core.
Premier Kathleen Wynne made the announcement today while taking part in the inaugural ride on the dedicated express train. The service will launch in time to serve visitors to the 2015 Pan Am and Parapan Am Games.
The government is investing more than $130 billion over 10 years in public infrastructure, the largest infrastructure investment in Ontario's history.
UP Express is one of $16 billion worth of projects underway to modernize transit infrastructure in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.
Through Moving Ontario Forward, the government is investing an additional $31.5 billion over 10 years to build transit, transportation and other priority infrastructure inside and outside the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, supporting over 20,000 jobs per year on average in construction and related industries.
On April 16 the government announced it is able to enhance funding for Moving Ontario Forward because it is acting on recommendations from Ed Clark's review of government assets. This will unlock $4 billion, every dollar of which would be set aside for transit and transportation infrastructure.
With the launch of UP Express, Toronto will join the ranks of global cities with a seamless airport-to-downtown connection -- enhancing the region's competitive advantage, reducing gridlock and promoting tourism. The trip between Canada's two busiest transportation hubs will take just 25 minutes, and trains will depart every 15 minutes.
Making the largest infrastructure investment in Ontario's history is part of the government's plan to build Ontario up. The four-part plan includes investing in people's talents and skills, building new public infrastructure like roads and transit, creating a dynamic, supportive environment where business thrives, and building a secure retirement savings plan.
QUICK FACTS
UP Express is forecast to carry 2.35 million passengers a year by 2018.
Toronto Pearson and Union Station are expected to serve 190 million travellers a year by 2031 — almost twice the current annual traffic.
UP Express is expected to remove 1.2 million car trips from roads across the region in its first year of operation alone.
The $16 billion worth of transit expansion and improvement projects underway in the GTHA includes UP Express, Eglinton Crosstown LRT, York VIVA Bus Rapid Transit and Union Station Revitalization.
christiesplits
Senior Member
Good God, is there any provincial agency of ministry that writes more fluff than Metrolinx? I support UPX and still can't stand their mawkish press releases.
mdrejhon
Senior Member
Don't forget the classic "novelty surge" (aka, the surge of users at the introduction of a fancy new service).
Better to have 80%+ full trains rather than standing people, so they really had to choose a quiet day. Then later make a big splash of popularity claims when 80% full trains become too packed during peak. The curve of daily Pearson traffic and surges from big planes, will cause near-empty trains and packed trains, so both naysayers and Metrolinx will be fighting for years -- mark my words. (But at the end of the day, it should eventually become profitable at average seat revenue). Tourists who pay $27.50 to be standees will be vocal with negative social networking. Metrolinx seems aware of this. Better to target nearly full, rather than risk overfilling the trains too early.
I am pretty sure, however, sales of $6 Presto cards at Pearson, will probably be accounted as part of UPX's revenue, inflating a $19 seat sale to a $25 seat sale (or $22 average revenue per roundtrip tourist). This is probably a very reasonable accounting rule, as long as cost of presto ongoing operating/manufacturing overhead (e.g. $1) is subtracted ($5 presto "profit") since, obviously, captive audience will prefer to pay $25 to get a Presto, over a $27.50 non-Presto, and it also gives tourists an extra incentive to use the other transportation services (TTC, GO) at Union or to pre-fill it for a return trip so they decide to take UPX back instead of a taxi. Repeat tourist visitors will sometimes remember to bring their Presto, and have a considerable incentive to use UPX again (even if they catch a taxi at Union to go to a second destination near downtown, like Liberty or Exhibition Place -- which will eventually have RER options, too and reduce the need for a taxi too).
Under this rule, I'd guesstimate $23 per passenger average revenue (combination of $19 residents, $19+Presto purchases for visitors, and $27.50 non-Presto). Operating cost is mentioned at $68-$70M per annum, and I expect UPX to surpass projections to about 3 million people within 5 years. This covers operating revenue. Assumng average of 150 seats per train (60 per car, 120 for two-car, 180 for three-car), each full train without standees pulls an average of $3450 revenue. Including standees which would sometimes happen during A380/747 landing events, this might be more. But let's use $3450 per train as a "maximum possible average" with the current fleet. UPX runs 15 mins from 5am to 1am, with 140 trips, yielding a theoretical maximum of non-standee $483,000 revenue per day. If you could do this 365 days a year, you get $176 million annually for 365 days! So $68M versus $176M.
So you only need to utilize 68/176ths capacity to break even.... 38%.
Therefore, UPX is profitable if trains are more than 38% full on average
I point out Metrolinx forecast about 2 to 2.5 million people within 5 years, while theoretical UPX capacity would be 7.7 million people. That's only 30%, but Metrolinx may be using slightly different numbers (e.g. using a higher predicted average revenue per passenger, I predict lower because of the Presto bundled purchases + prefills for return trip). I predict 3 million people in less than 5 years, partly thanks to Presto prefills, and I would not be surprised to see it exceed 3 million especially given Pearson's expected slight acceleration in growth brought upon by UPX, as I know I would now sometimes use Pearson instead of Billy Bishop for short trips like Ottawa, now that UPX exists. I'm sure many others agree too. So I'd forecast slightly lower average revenue per person, but higher passenger traffic within 5 years, based on common-sense stuff. It's always good to lowball the projections for a controversial route, and that has been done frequently (by precedent).
So they can afford a few empty trains in between full trains. That doesn't even include standees during 747/A380 surges. This doesn't even include an upgrade to an all-3-car fleet (which would be worthwhile to absorb surge 747/A380 moments, even if the extra cars run empty-ish offpeak). An all-3-car fleet would be $3680/train (or $4500 with standees), or about $1M per day at 7.5 minute headways, if they were inclined to do so (operating costs would go up, but would not double). This doesn't even include the potential ability to ramp service up to 12 minute intervals during events (e.g. Pan Am), if they use all trains they have.
Although I'd prefer slotting fast-accelerating all-stop GO RER trains between the UPX trains instead to make more efficient use of the corridor capacity. From a people-moving volume perspective, UPX is a waste of corridor capacity (compared to, say, a frequent bi-level GO RER train). However, on an operating profit perspective, I think UPX actually will do better than Toronto's population expects.
Whether this is good or bad is always a debate, but many seem to falsely think UPX is going to be a loss-making endeavour -- considering the captive airport audience with worse "cheap" public transit alternatives to downtown, than similiar expensive-train cities like London/Tokyo/HongKong. Many of those cities have cheaper appealing train alternatives (e.g. a single subway line) while at Pearson there's only a bus under an ugly arrivals viaduct that takes more than an hour to Union with a Kipling transfer. In addition to the typical precedent of lowballing of projections of a controversial transit projects worldwide, this is another reason precisely why I think UPX will be incredibly popular with Pearson travellers, and passengers will exceed Metrolinx projections significantly.
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AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Don't forget they are the ones who brought you the promo video portraying UPX as the Second Coming.
AoD
christiesplits
Senior Member
Yes, that was atrocious. Their copy on the website is similarly nauseating:
"Here are a few details on one of the most ambitious – and important – transportation projects in the province’s history"
"The Union Pearson Express is about more than transporting passengers swiftly and efficiently, or relieving traffic congestion and commuter headaches. It’s about who we are as a city and as a province."
http://www.upexpress.com/en/our_story/our_story.aspx
smallspy
Senior Member
Traditionally, Saturday is the busiest travel day of the week. The quietest days are Tuesday and Wednesday, so if they wanted to ease into it picking one of those two (or perhaps Sunday, which is usually a fair amount quieter than a Saturday) would have made a lot more sense.
Dan
Toronto, Ont.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Look like they might have killed the video and kept the words. If this is the most ambitious and important project in our history, we'd be so doomed. And if this project somehow creates our sense of self - I think we are in need more psychotherapists, not trains.
It's diesel surface rail from the downtown core to the airport on a mostly pre-existing corridor. Many cities have that - and many other cities went far beyond that. Get over it already.
AoD
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TOareaFan
Superstar
Not for business travellers.....there is reason so many downtown business class hotels (in lots of cities) offer big discounts on weekends....their core customers are traditionally M-F travellers.
Similarly UPe will have a core target audience of airport-DT business travellers (not exclusive I know - don't want to open that can of worms)....so the airport itself may be busy but I don't think it should surprise anyone that they have launched on a Saturday to ease into operations.
nfitz
Superstar
For airports? I thought it was Fridays and Sunday evenings, and to a lesser extent Monday mornings. I thought Saturday was between those, and Tuesday/Wednesday.
ehlow
Senior Member
I'm actually excited that something is finishing, a transit project is actually going to finish & open. It's not part of the TTC or GO networks obviously, but it is a new transit line, right? When was the last time that happened, 2001 with the Sheppard line? The next time this will happen is (hopefully) end of 2017.
Adjei
Senior Member
What about the Mississauga Transitway and York Region Rapidways?