drum118
Superstar
It boils down to a funding issue and how long due you want to have people on the payroll not doing what they are supposed to be doing in the first place.I've come to believe that's not even the problem, at least not anymore, it's just the excuse now.
It's one thing when your starting up an operation and for the first few 3-4 years there after. With the two year requirement, plus additional training periods, yup that can definitely hamper things. But they've had over 6 years to get enough personal now. The problem is either poor planning, or they're just being stingy(talking about GO/the province here for they're the ones that control the purse strings). It's shouldn't be all that hard to hire a suffice number of personal well in advance of future service increases. Personal leaving does complicate things but that's why you have to go over and above your anticipated requirements. But more likely they're just using a lack of crews as an excuse to delay future service increases for budgetary reasons. It's coming right down to the wire for a sufficient number of crews just for the Milton & UPX service nevermind anything after that, least not right away. Too early to tell at this point how many they'll be able to train for service increases thereafter.
If trains are going to run every 15 minutes in off peak time in 10 years, you are going to need X crews to do it and a easy number to come up with. You then look at the peak service level to see how many more trains will be on line to get X crews needed 5 days a week. You look at your retirement list to see how many could retire over the 10 year cycle to see how many crews that will have to be replace. You now know the X number of crews that will be require within 10 years to develop a hiring and training process to full fill the needs.
The unknown lost of crews is very hard to plan for and one reason for the spare board. Something I forgot is the spare board and it requires 10-15% of all crews and that must be added to X crew numbers.
Over the next 10 years, funding must be in place for the new X crews, new rolling stock, track expansion and upgrade, with the list going on to the point there is less money to cover it to the point you got to cut back on something. What becomes a hard choice with service being number 1 cut.
Lack of service has always been GO position over the years because running fees to CN and CP, but not the case for most of the system today.