Toronto 2030

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Wow - all this doom and gloom here! I'm actually still a student and the general trend that almost my entire generation displays is a hate for the suburbs and a love for downtown(s). I'm not talking about just downtown Toronto - I'm talking about quaint, urban areas that are liveable, walkable, and breathable. This entire generation has grown up in the suburbs - in stark contrast to their parents who hail from the much denser cities, the quieter suburbs of yesterday, the farms, etc. The suburbs nowadays aren't the suburbs they used to be - they are a meaner, scarier place. Just looking at my hometown of Mississauga, you can see that it has grown unsustainably at a rapid pace. The 3 or 4 lane arterials are clogged with cars, driving home from work is now a nightmare. Even my parents (dedicated suburbanites) are starting to complain at the frenzied pace of the suburbs. There is absolutely nothing about the outer areas of the GTA that is attractive anymore. Have a drive down the northern stretch of Mavis near Heartland in Mississauga during rush hour one day. You have to be crazy to live/shop/work there. Before, suburbs used to be a break from the hustle and bustle of downtown and an opportunity to experience a bit of nature. Now, they are neither quieter than downtown (in fact, I'd argue that they are busier in terms of car traffic and pollution), nor can they be compared with anything natural. You get neither the convenience of urban areas or the experience of the country life.

I think people will gravitate towards downtown(s) such as Toronto, Mississauga City Centre, etc.; however a few things will have to occur for these downtown areas to remain so desirable.

1) Gas prices will have to remain high, and no viable, cheap electric car will have to be produced.
2) Efficient, reliable public transit will have to be built i.e. the return of Transit City (of which there is some faint hope) and the DRL (which the province seems to be seriously considering!)
3) Downtown's amenities (shopping, entertainment, parks, etc.) will have to continuously expand and remain attractive.
4) Toronto will have to be the centre of employment in the GTHA.
5) A new mayor will HAVE to be elected after Ford's term ends.

There are so many great things happening right now in Toronto, even with the current regime, that I'm quite surprised at the negativity here! Everyone here mentions that public transit will only get worse. Last time I checked, the Eglinton LRT is under contruction, GO service is improving, TTC ridership increasing, and the ARL is under contruction. Just have a glance at Christopher Hume's analysis in today's Star. Toronto, folks, will only become bigger and better! Let's be optimistic about the future. The posters here (theoretically fans of urbanism) should know better and be proud of the city they live in.

I'm a student myself, third year at the University of Toronto. I graduate in 2013. I used to have your optimism but with the delays to Transit city, and this was before Ford, became jaded. Right now I live in Oakville with my parents. Of course this makes me a hypocritical loser, but I had plans to move downtown right after school. I want to stay here but as Toronto become increasingly divided and polarized, with no real transit plan in the future, I'm not sure if I want to stay.

 

[abcde]

I'm a student myself, third year at the University of Toronto. I graduate in 2013. I used to have your optimism but with the delays to Transit city, and this was before Ford, became jaded. Right now I live in Oakville with my parents. Of course this makes me a hypocritical loser, but I had plans to move downtown right after school. I want to stay here but as Toronto become increasingly divided and polarized, with no real transit plan in the future, I'm not sure if I want to stay.

May I ask what you're studying?

Compared to for example Mississauga, Scarborough, Brampton, etc., Oakville is still one of those quaint and quiet suburbs (especially the central part with the mini-downtown). It has a ton of greenspace, is not burdened with too much residents, has enough amenities, and so on. I assume you must live relatively close to a good GO connection downtown? Not only will downtown Toronto become a better place to live, but the areas outside of Toronto around solid transit service will become more desirable as well (think Port Credit, Streetsville, Oakville centre).

As for the division - it's always been there. Yes, income inequality is getting worse but whose fault is that exactly? Our society as a whole needs to change the way we think in order to do something about the growing disparities. Enough with the union busting and jealousy. I can only imagine the corporate boards laughing as low-income workers take aim at unionized city workers let's say. When those city workers lose their slightly better paying jobs because of jealousy and resentment, that only serves to further hurt every other low-income worker (the ex-city workers' incomes fall, they decrease their spending, business profits fall, companies have an excuse to lay off more workers/lower wages even further). We're trapped in this vicious cycle at the very moment. Why can't those low income workers say: "How do we fight for our rights? Why can't we join a union? Why is my company paying the CEO and other executives millions of dollars, why has the stock price tripled over the last decade while our pension benefits have been cut, our wages lowered, and our friends let go?" It pains me to see people (my friends and family included) do this to each other and I always try to explain this concept to them. Some of them understand, however some of them are so far gone with corporate ideals that it's just.... sad.

As for political divisions - Rob Ford is doing a fantastic job eradicating the majority of divisions. Most people in the GTA are now anti-Ford, especially the younger generation. Anyhow, a healthy society needs a healthy amount of debate and disagreement - that's what makes us interesting ; )

Merry Christmas everyone on UT!

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

May I ask what you're studying?

Compared to for example Mississauga, Scarborough, Brampton, etc., Oakville is still one of those quaint and quiet suburbs (especially the central part with the mini-downtown). It has a ton of greenspace, is not burdened with too much residents, has enough amenities, and so on. I assume you must live relatively close to a good GO connection downtown? Not only will downtown Toronto become a better place to live, but the areas outside of Toronto around solid transit service will become more desirable as well (think Port Credit, Streetsville, Oakville centre).

As for the division - it's always been there. Yes, income inequality is getting worse but whose fault is that exactly? Our society as a whole needs to change the way we think in order to do something about the growing disparities. Enough with the union busting and jealousy. I can only imagine the corporate boards laughing as low-income workers take aim at unionized city workers let's say. When those city workers lose their slightly better paying jobs because of jealousy and resentment, that only serves to further hurt every other low-income worker (the ex-city workers' incomes fall, they decrease their spending, business profits fall, companies have an excuse to lay off more workers/lower wages even further). We're trapped in this vicious cycle at the very moment. Why can't those low income workers say: "How do we fight for our rights? Why can't we join a union? Why is my company paying the CEO and other executives millions of dollars, why has the stock price tripled over the last decade while our pension benefits have been cut, our wages lowered, and our friends let go?" It pains me to see people (my friends and family included) do this to each other and I always try to explain this concept to them. Some of them understand, however some of them are so far gone with corporate ideals that it's just.... sad.

As for political divisions - Rob Ford is doing a fantastic job eradicating the majority of divisions. Most people in the GTA are now anti-Ford, especially the younger generation. Anyhow, a healthy society needs a healthy amount of debate and disagreement - that's what makes us interesting ; )

Merry Christmas everyone on UT!

Right now. A BA Honors in Political Science. After that I have no clue/ I feel that Oakville while improving is still for older people and not kids like me. I hope it gets better in the years to come. And I do live near Bronte GO, where they are still building 4000 sqft McMansions. West Oakville, East Burlington is still building new homes.

I agree about the public service as well. The same people say don't be jealous of sucess, don't hate on the high income yet are complaining about others just because they work for the public service. Ridiculous.
If I may ask, are you in school as well?

Merry Christmas to you as well.

 

[Hipster Duck]

It's impossible to make predictions even two years down the road, but it's a fun little game.

So, with that out of the way, my predictions are:

- that downtown Toronto will become more worldly, vibrant and expensive. The central city will be where the bulk of capital investment (except transit) will flow.
- that the outer 416 will continue to stagnate and grow poorer (although poverty will be relative to the gains in wealth in the central city). Some of the hardest hit areas will see American ghetto levels of social deprivation (eg. 1/3 of the kids with type II diabetes, neighbourhoods where hardly any adult holds a permanent job).
- parts of the inner 905 will begin to stagnate; the outer 905 will remain stable.
- the tallest building will still be FCP
- still no DRL (why bother? Transit is built because you want to stimulate real estate investment, and the downtown booms regardless)
- still no Stanley cup for the Leafs
- still no decent liquor laws
- we will probably not get any new cultural institutions, but one of our smaller ones might catapult into the bigger leagues
- there might be "suburban nostalgia", with more well-heeled hipsters buying early 1960s bungalows in Southern Scarborough vacated by baby boomers who are starting to move to nursing homes. The hipsters will throw retro 1960s parties in sunken living rooms and reconvert old strip malls into "nouveau Googie" bars.
- Suburban working class immigrants who attend Pentacostal churches will thwart progressive social policies. Multiculturalism and immigrant values will actually align with social conservatism. Social liberalism will be defined by the values of a post-racial, educated class of urbanites. I think this already exists, but progressives will actually explicitly distance themselves from the concept of multiculturalism by 2030 whereas social conservatives will genuinely embrace multiculrualism rather than just pay lip service to it.
- High density downtown living will be in huge demand, and all the developable lots will have been built upon putting enormous pressure on developing the surrounding low rise Victorian neighbourhoods. Fierce NIMBYism will ensue, and we might actually have the creation of historic districts. Housing prices in these areas will skyrocket (I'm basing this on what is happening in Vancouver, currently). Like Vancouver, we will have to build new supply in creative ways, such as laneway housing and secondary suites, but due to the onerousness of the regulations and trying to appease local NIMBYs, it will be built in little incremements at a snail's pace, and will never be enough to meet demand.
- HOV lanes will be converted to HOT (high occupany toll) lanes; it was inevitable, because even these were getting jammed 24/7, so the premium-ness of the lanes was being lost. The provincial government will sell the tolling rights to some private company in a shady deal and this will cost the premier an election based on the scandal that will result.
- the TTC will carry 600 million riders; the cost of a Metropass will be $200. A single ride will be $5.

Merry X-mas!

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

It's impossible to make predictions even two years down the road, but it's a fun little game.

So, with that out of the way, my predictions are:

- that downtown Toronto will become more worldly, vibrant and expensive. The central city will be where the bulk of capital investment (except transit) will flow.
- that the outer 416 will continue to stagnate and grow poorer (although poverty will be relative to the gains in wealth in the central city). Some of the hardest hit areas will see American ghetto levels of social deprivation (eg. 1/3 of the kids with type II diabetes, neighbourhoods where hardly any adult holds a permanent job).
- parts of the inner 905 will begin to stagnate; the outer 905 will remain stable.
- the tallest building will still be FCP
- still no DRL (why bother? Transit is built because you want to stimulate real estate investment, and the downtown booms regardless)
- still no Stanley cup for the Leafs
- still no decent liquor laws
- we will probably not get any new cultural institutions, but one of our smaller ones might catapult into the bigger leagues
- there might be "suburban nostalgia", with more well-heeled hipsters buying early 1960s bungalows in Southern Scarborough vacated by baby boomers who are starting to move to nursing homes. The hipsters will throw retro 1960s parties in sunken living rooms and reconvert old strip malls into "nouveau Googie" bars.
- Suburban working class immigrants who attend Pentacostal churches will thwart progressive social policies. Multiculturalism and immigrant values will actually align with social conservatism. Social liberalism will be defined by the values of a post-racial, educated class of urbanites. I think this already exists, but progressives will actually explicitly distance themselves from the concept of multiculturalism by 2030 whereas social conservatives will genuinely embrace multiculrualism rather than just pay lip service to it.
- High density downtown living will be in huge demand, and all the developable lots will have been built upon putting enormous pressure on developing the surrounding low rise Victorian neighbourhoods. Fierce NIMBYism will ensue, and we might actually have the creation of historic districts. Housing prices in these areas will skyrocket (I'm basing this on what is happening in Vancouver, currently). Like Vancouver, we will have to build new supply in creative ways, such as laneway housing and secondary suites, but due to the onerousness of the regulations and trying to appease local NIMBYs, it will be built in little incremements at a snail's pace, and will never be enough to meet demand.
- HOV lanes will be converted to HOT (high occupany toll) lanes; it was inevitable, because even these were getting jammed 24/7, so the premium-ness of the lanes was being lost. The provincial government will sell the tolling rights to some private company in a shady deal and this will cost the premier an election based on the scandal that will result.
- the TTC will carry 600 million riders; the cost of a Metropass will be $200. A single ride will be $5.

Merry X-mas!

Very nice and even!!! I agree with the tolls, and sadly agree about the DRL. I think York and East York will be hardest hit with poverty.

Great Post hispter duck.

 

[adma]

Very nice and even!!! I agree with the tolls, and sadly agree about the DRL. I think York and East York will be hardest hit with poverty.

Not East York--the southern part's too aligned with east end Toronto, Leaside's too WASPY, and Thorncliffe's Thorncliffe....

I'd also wonder where someplace like Hamilton'll stand in 2030, in a "what Toronto was" way

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Not East York--the southern part's too aligned with east end Toronto, Leaside's too WASPY, and Thorncliffe's Thorncliffe....

I'd also wonder where someplace like Hamilton'll stand in 2030, in a "what Toronto was" way

Good Points. East York is a good position there. Lower Hamilton will bottom out soon. The population will drop to 200,000.

 

[adma]

Good Points. East York is a good position there. Lower Hamilton will bottom out soon. The population will drop to 200,000.

My point re old Hamilton pertained more to its potential Toronto-refugee gentrification, i.e. not so much bottoming out as potentially bouncing back...

 

[CITY_LOVER]

Let me chime in here to say that I completely agree with TrickyRicky re: his points on smaller central and southern Ontario cities most likely seeing relative decline in the future (if you want to see small cities with strong future potential, it'll be places like Barrie & Guelph as they're close enough to the GTA to reap the corresponding economic and other benefits).

I also agree with abcde and Hipster Duck on their points for the GTA (some of us really think alike, eh?). Yes, yes, I know, it's not surprising that many here will think on the same wavelength...

Finally, I feel that Hamilton will only benefit (like Adma states) as time goes by as more and more GTA residents who will want to flee will prefer to settle there (especially if their place of work is in Missi., Oakville, etc.). For them, the commute from Hamilton will be worth it. Which demographic do I foresee doing this? Well, as you may have guessed, I see people with Western-European origins migrating, just like how they will choose Barrie and other such places (as much of the 905 like Markham, Richmond Hill, Missi. and Brampton continue to get more and more non-Western-European, a demographic that for the most part is not integrating). Hamilton will increasingly feel like some of the inner-city nabes such as the Junction, Ossington, High Park, Roncesvalles, etc. (areas that are inner-city, gentrifying and thriving with mostly a white demographic).

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

My point re old Hamilton pertained more to its potential Toronto-refugee gentrification, i.e. not so much bottoming out as potentially bouncing back...

That is also true. Many will leave Toronto as it is too expensive. Hamilton, Bomanville, Halton Hills, will get benefit from this.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Let me chime in here to say that I completely agree with TrickyRicky re: his points on smaller central and southern Ontario cities most likely seeing relative decline in the future (if you want to see small cities with strong future potential, it'll be places like Barrie & Guelph as they're close enough to the GTA to reap the corresponding economic and other benefits).

I also agree with abcde and Hipster Duck on their points for the GTA (some of us really think alike, eh?). Yes, yes, I know, it's not surprising that many here will think on the same wavelength...

Finally, I feel that Hamilton will only benefit (like Adma states) as time goes by as more and more GTA residents who will want to flee will prefer to settle there (especially if their place of work is in Missi., Oakville, etc.). For them, the commute from Hamilton will be worth it. Which demographic do I foresee doing this? Well, as you may have guessed, I see people with Western-European origins migrating, just like how they will choose Barrie and other such places (as much of the 905 like Markham, Richmond Hill, Missi. and Brampton continue to get more and more non-Western-European, a demographic that for the most part is not integrating). Hamilton will increasingly feel like some of the inner-city nabes such as the Junction, Ossington, High Park, Roncesvalles, etc. (areas that are inner-city, gentrifying and thriving with mostly a white demographic).

Hamilton is in a great position imo, I think that the growth the GTA the two areas will merge for real.

 

[abcde]

Right now. A BA Honors in Political Science. After that I have no clue/ I feel that Oakville while improving is still for older people and not kids like me. I hope it gets better in the years to come. And I do live near Bronte GO, where they are still building 4000 sqft McMansions. West Oakville, East Burlington is still building new homes.

Political Science - nice! Perhaps you might choose to get involved with a political party? I met a lot of poli sci grads during the last election campaign who have gone on to work with parties or took on various government roles.
As for the McMansions, attitudes are shifting very slowly, but they are changing. Even Oakville is seeing some high-rise development with for example the recent Rain condos.

I agree about the public service as well. The same people say don't be jealous of sucess, don't hate on the high income yet are complaining about others just because they work for the public service. Ridiculous.
If I may ask, are you in school as well?

A little hypocritical, isn't it?
And I am still in school at the moment. Grade 12 :$ Not quite sure what to do yet either...

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Political Science - nice! Perhaps you might choose to get involved with a political party? I met a lot of poli sci grads during the last election campaign who have gone on to work with parties or took on various government roles.
As for the McMansions, attitudes are shifting very slowly, but they are changing. Even Oakville is seeing some high-rise development with for example the recent Rain condos.

Oakville has some very nice condos going up, Right near Oakville Go as well, Creating a urban commuter situtaiton that will be better in the long run. The only way I will even buy a mcmansion is if I have 6 kids.

A little hypocritical, isn't it?
And I am still in school at the moment. Grade 12 :$ Not quite sure what to do yet either...

Agreed! Those unions teach our kids and pick up our garbage. Show a little respect.

I remeber Grade 12, it was the last time I enjoyed education. Now its essay after essay. I might work for the public service or join a party, or even become a managment consultant. Where do you live? The city?

 

[abcde]

Where do you live? The city?

Nope, still here in Mississauga. More specifically, on the border of Lorne Park and Port Credit, so it's pretty pleasant - no complaints!

Getting back on topic:
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1106923--hume-10-reasons-to-feel-optimistic-about-toronto

All is not lost. Despite Rob Ford, the city will survive. Damage has been done but still there are reasons for optimism. Here are 10:

The Waterfront: Once famously described by an uninformed Toronto councillor as a “boondoggle,” waterfront revitalization has now become the galvanizing force behind a renewed sense of civic engagement. Torontonians are paying attention to a process that has been unfolding for more than decade. Suddenly, things can’t happen fast enough.

Regent Park: The remaking of this post-war social housing project is a remarkable chapter in the history of the Toronto Community Housing Corp. What’s happening along Dundas St. E., where an aquatic facility, cultural centre and condos are under construction, will transform the city as well as the neighbourhood.

The New Corporate Architecture: Not only is Toronto building office towers once again, it’s building them better than ever. All the recently completed high-rises — Telus, PwC and RBC/Dexia — are exquisitely designed and have (or expect to have) LEED (Gold) certification.

Occupy Toronto: As occupations go, this was among the most polite ever mounted. It brought out the best in almost everyone, except grumpy neighbours and dog-walkers. Even the police behaved well. And when it did end, the Ontario Sod Growers Association and Landscape Ontario resodded the park for free. Not only that; they did it in days.

CBC Radio: While commercial radio lapses into cultural and political banality, the public broadcaster has become the voice of Toronto. Contrary to the rules of a horribly dumbed-down industry, it courts complexity and embraces the cosmopolitan.

Queen Street: The homogeneity of Big Retail aside, this remains the urban lifeblood of Toronto. Queen has the robustness to withstand the onslaught of the Shoppers Drug Marts, HMVs, Club Monacos, McDonalds, Tim Hortons, and all the other dreary peddlers of cheap and easy sameness.

Humber College: At its Lakeshore College, the school is carving an unexpectedly exciting urban scaled campus out of the unpromising context of south Etobicoke. In one case, an old car dealership was reinvented, brilliantly, as the Centre for Justice Leadership.

Centre for Addiction and Mental Health: Though incomplete, the rebuilding of its site at Queen and Ossington is a shining example of how planning and architecture must follow new attitudes or risk irrelevance. An enlightened project for both the CAMH and the city.

Rouge Park: Future Torontonians will thank the federal government for its decision to declare this 10,000-acre site an urban national park. As time goes by, the wisdom of the move first announced in the throne speech last June, will grow ever more obvious.

Union Station: The busiest transit hub in the country, let alone the city, Union Station is finally getting the attention it needs. Plans go back at least to the Lastman era, but now the remake is underway. Thousands of commuters will be thrilled.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Nope, still here in Mississauga. More specifically, on the border of Lorne Park and Port Credit, so it's pretty pleasant - no complaints!

Getting back on topic:
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1106923--hume-10-reasons-to-feel-optimistic-about-toronto

I guess maybe it's not so bad after all. The waterfront is coming along nicely, and CBC Toronto is has been the voice of many.

I'll PM you for the rest of our other convo.