Toronto 2030

[Long Island Mike]

It's impossible to make predictions even two years down the road, but it's a fun little game.

So, with that out of the way, my predictions are:

- that downtown Toronto will become more worldly, vibrant and expensive. The central city will be where the bulk of capital investment (except transit) will flow.
- that the outer 416 will continue to stagnate and grow poorer (although poverty will be relative to the gains in wealth in the central city). Some of the hardest hit areas will see American ghetto levels of social deprivation (eg. 1/3 of the kids with type II diabetes, neighbourhoods where hardly any adult holds a permanent job).
- parts of the inner 905 will begin to stagnate; the outer 905 will remain stable.
- the tallest building will still be FCP
- still no DRL (why bother? Transit is built because you want to stimulate real estate investment, and the downtown booms regardless)
- still no Stanley cup for the Leafs
- still no decent liquor laws
- we will probably not get any new cultural institutions, but one of our smaller ones might catapult into the bigger leagues
- there might be "suburban nostalgia", with more well-heeled hipsters buying early 1960s bungalows in Southern Scarborough vacated by baby boomers who are starting to move to nursing homes. The hipsters will throw retro 1960s parties in sunken living rooms and reconvert old strip malls into "nouveau Googie" bars.
- Suburban working class immigrants who attend Pentacostal churches will thwart progressive social policies. Multiculturalism and immigrant values will actually align with social conservatism. Social liberalism will be defined by the values of a post-racial, educated class of urbanites. I think this already exists, but progressives will actually explicitly distance themselves from the concept of multiculturalism by 2030 whereas social conservatives will genuinely embrace multiculrualism rather than just pay lip service to it.
- High density downtown living will be in huge demand, and all the developable lots will have been built upon putting enormous pressure on developing the surrounding low rise Victorian neighbourhoods. Fierce NIMBYism will ensue, and we might actually have the creation of historic districts. Housing prices in these areas will skyrocket (I'm basing this on what is happening in Vancouver, currently). Like Vancouver, we will have to build new supply in creative ways, such as laneway housing and secondary suites, but due to the onerousness of the regulations and trying to appease local NIMBYs, it will be built in little incremements at a snail's pace, and will never be enough to meet demand.
- HOV lanes will be converted to HOT (high occupany toll) lanes; it was inevitable, because even these were getting jammed 24/7, so the premium-ness of the lanes was being lost. The provincial government will sell the tolling rights to some private company in a shady deal and this will cost the premier an election based on the scandal that will result.
- the TTC will carry 600 million riders; the cost of a Metropass will be $200. A single ride will be $5.

Merry X-mas!

HD: Interesting thoughts in your prediction post-I especially noted the US city ghetto thought...
One thing that Toronto never suffered from was "White Flight" to the suburbs like in many US Cities...

I feel that Toronto's high cost of living has priced many lower-income residents out similar to how
things are in the NYC area...I hope that Toronto never suffers from the urban ills that many US cities have...
Are the remaining low-income poverty areas places that residents can not afford to move primarily the
problem there?

I also agree with Den and I do think that the Toronto and Hamilton area is becoming one major metropolitan
area similar to how Baltimore,MD and Washington,DC have become-the two cities are almost the same distance
apart-about 40 or so miles-and the areas in between both city pairs are major growth areas...

LI MIKE

 

[Hipster Duck]

HD: Interesting thoughts in your prediction post-I especially noted the US city ghetto thought...
One thing that Toronto never suffered from was "White Flight" to the suburbs like in many US Cities...

Mike,

I think the difference between the poorest Canadians and the poorest Americans - at least those who live in the ghetto - is that Canadians will always be at a much lower risk of dying from gun violence, and that they at least have health coverage. Beyond that, I think that a kid growing up in the poorest housing project in Toronto would lead a very similar life to a kid growing up in the poorest housing project in Chicago. That would include things like having a horrendous diet consisting mostly of fast foods and junk foods, not knowing a single adult that holds a respectable job, having a high likelihood of dropping out of a miserable high school and becoming structurally unemployable for life, growing up fatherless with no strong male role models, developing substance abuse addictions, etc. Despite what you might have heard, being poor in Canada is no walk in the park. It's not quite as bleak as being poor in the United States, but it's getting there and it gets worse every year.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

HD: Interesting thoughts in your prediction post-I especially noted the US city ghetto thought...
One thing that Toronto never suffered from was "White Flight" to the suburbs like in many US Cities...

I feel that Toronto's high cost of living has priced many lower-income residents out similar to how
things are in the NYC area...I hope that Toronto never suffers from the urban ills that many US cities have...
Are the remaining low-income poverty areas places that residents can not afford to move primarily the
problem there?

I also agree with Den and I do think that the Toronto and Hamilton area is becoming one major metropolitan
area similar to how Baltimore,MD and Washington,DC have become-the two cities are almost the same distance
apart-about 40 or so miles-and the areas in between both city pairs are major growth areas...

LI MIKE

Toronto even during Miller did not have enough ambition. So what if others laugh at us. If we want to become Paris, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc. Then we should be all in.

 

[TrickyRicky]

"So what if others laugh at us. If we want to become Paris, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc. Then we should be all in."

If you actually go to many of these centres as well as those more in Toronto's league here in North America you will find the mood at the moment decidely more dire. We may be operating here in some kind of self-delusional bubble but our constant complaining belies the activity on the ground. If Toronto is presently in some kind of funk, which it may very well be in, pity the development and urban geeks in our sister cities throughout the Western world.

To the other comments here I would add that many of the troubles experienced by the inner 416 from a socio-economic perspective will spread into select 905 communities. In a nod to Glen's emphasis on taxation I feel that in a perverse way residential taxation will somewhat counteract the natural flow of low income residents to the 905. In Toronto proper we are seeing a rapid concentration of property tax revenue in the inner city. With the inner city footing an ever larger share of the tax bill, taxes will continue to decrease the closer you get to steeles. Since 905 tax rates are high and rapidly rising you will start to get a phenomenon where the tax gap at steeles will become a mighty cliff with low residential taxation to the south and very high taxation to the north.

Also, in 2030 Hamilton will be the exact same as it is now.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I agree. I think more people will come back or move into the city and stay. The suburbs are out of reach for an increasing amount of people.

 

[toto]

I think the inner suburbs are going to surprise everyone in the next decade or two, in that they will become desirable places to live. Look at Scarborough west of Warden, North York Along Sheppard of south Etobicoke. These areas are already becoming populated with people turning mid 20th century bungalows into 2 storey Dwell magazine eco homes and the likes. Why? Inexpensive 40' x 130' lots within a 20 minute drive of Downtown, strip malls with good eateries and services within walking distance. Many as diverse as retail along Dundas west or the Danforth. Once public transit improves along major thoroughfares, and the main roads become developed with higher density, the inner burbs will become as livable as many inner core neighbourhoods.

 

[AKS]

Why? Inexpensive 40' x 130' lots within a 20 minute drive of Downtown, strip malls with good eateries and services within walking distance.

This isn't quite true. The plazas aren't very busy. To name a few around my parents area, Eglinton Square, The lot north of ES, Victoria Terrace, plazas along east of Victoria Park, Parkway Mall, strips of plazas along Victoria Park. They're not that busy like STC, Eatons, Yorkdale, Fairview, etc. I haven't been to Shops on Don Mills in a long time so I don't know how busy or not it gets. As for good eateries, I only recall seeing fast foods in the area. Some of the plazas are pretty far walking distances too. Pretty spread out IMO. I considered the area a suburb because it takes time to get to places without taking a bus. Walking to plazas within 30-40 min is like a chore. However, there's a lot of places I pass by downtown within 30-40 min and time goes by faster. There's more people walking. When I used to walk to school or the plaza, the street would be pretty dead that I seem like the odd ball who walks. Most are taking the bus.

 

[Tewder]

As much of the older city becomes unattainable many will leave, creating urban nodes outside of the city or further expanding existing ones. This is already happening. The older city will always house the cultural elites but the real creative classes will seek more fertile grounds. This same pattern has already been witnessed in other cities. A stronger system of regional transit will only facilitate this decentralization, along with the existence of already extremely undervalued urban areas near Toronto. Hamilton will benefit enormously of course, which potentially would only be about a half hour's train ride away from Toronto's west end, given upgraded services.

 

[TrickyRicky]

You could be right Toto but I think the jury is still out. There will definately be areas in the outer 416 that will turn themselves around, but on balance I think the future will still see a concentration of low-income in the region of Toronto North of the 401. The counter-balance will be the manner in which everything south of 401 will increasingly be sending money to subsidize this region creating that cost of living gap with the 905 neighbourhoods at the fringe. I feel that many of the 905 communities will stratify with eventually high concentrations of low-income and poverty in the Eastern 905 and Oshawa as well as in Peel region in select parts of Mississauga and Brampton. By contrast areas such as Oakville, the Yonge corridor, Markham and the ex-urbs will continue to prosper. I am also curious to see how the last bastions of low-income areas south of the 401 will fair? The new eglington cross-town cuts through many of these areas. Will they too become populated by young urbanites unable to afford areas like the Junction or Leaside or Vaughn road or East York that 15 years ago were considered too dodgy to consider living in?

 

[toto]

My mother lives in the Wexford area of Scarborough, has been there since the early 60's. I visit her regularly and the area is changing. This summer many of the homes in the area that were for sale, went for 10 - 15% over asking. Similar to what was happening in East York a few years ago. I also noticed an increase in second storey additions. I am even noticing a fair bit of solar panels on roof tops. I have found Sushi, shwarama, pho and thai food in the area as good as anything in the core. The strip malls near her place along Lawrence Ave, are extremely busy. Sure it's not Queen west or the Danforth, but it isn't Mississauga either. There is a fair bit of life in these areas and while much of it revolves around needing a car, once the density increases the foot traffic will as well. I not going to write these areas off.

Toronto in 2030 will be more of what it is now. Rich areas, pockets of poverty and everything in between. The key to maintaining the balance will be affordable housing, great local and regional transit and a variety of stable, employment opportunities.

 

[Long Island Mike]

Mike,

I think the difference between the poorest Canadians and the poorest Americans - at least those who live in the ghetto - is that Canadians will always be at a much lower risk of dying from gun violence, and that they at least have health coverage. Beyond that, I think that a kid growing up in the poorest housing project in Toronto would lead a very similar life to a kid growing up in the poorest housing project in Chicago. That would include things like having a horrendous diet consisting mostly of fast foods and junk foods, not knowing a single adult that holds a respectable job, having a high likelihood of dropping out of a miserable high school and becoming structurally unemployable for life, growing up fatherless with no strong male role models, developing substance abuse addictions, etc. Despite what you might have heard, being poor in Canada is no walk in the park. It's not quite as bleak as being poor in the United States, but it's getting there and it gets worse every year.

HD: Thanks for the eye-opening reply-I appreciate your bluntness on this subject...
It amazes me that some of the same urban problems affecting US cities has become Toronto problems also...
minus the US health care and gun violence ills...I understand that being poor in Canada is no "bargain" but
the health care safety net has to help to some extent...something that the US SHOULD have...LI MIKE

 

[Jonny5]

HD: Thanks for the eye-opening reply-I appreciate your bluntness on this subject...
It amazes me that some of the same urban problems affecting US cities has become Toronto problems also...
minus the US health care and gun violence ills...I understand that being poor in Canada is no "bargain" but
the health care safety net has to help to some extent...something that the US SHOULD have...LI MIKE

An important nuance is that the poorest have it pretty good in Toronto compared to some other Canadian cities.
Being Native Canadian child and living in a city is often a pretty rough life. Unlike the US (I think!) there are some Canadian cities with very high Native populations. There are 65,000 Native Canadians in Winnipeg, about 10% of the population, and they are on average very low income earners. The institutionalized racism in that city is shocking from an outsiders point of view.

Also many small cities in Quebec and the Maritimes have chronic unemployment due to sudden loss of manufacturing or exporting jobs and they are having many more big city social and crime problems but without the big city social services to handle them.

 

[Chuck]

Property values are higher around subways and LRT due to convenience, and once the other desirability factors that come with rapid transit come into effect, only the wealthy can afford to live near them.

Fortunately, that is not entirely true. Subways in particular were generally built in areas that were already among the wealthiest in the city - North Toronto wasn't exactly hurting before the Yonge line was built. Certain stations are in historically lower income areas, and it would be correct to say that that land values haven't exactly skyrocketed around Victoria Park station and points east.

Similarly, streetcars are so widespread in Toronto that the streetcar itself will not automatically result in raised land values. Regent Park has excellent streetcar service but was historically a rough neighbourhood. The same might have been said about Parkdale, pockets of St. Clair West, Chinatown, etc only a few years ago.

Consider New York, which has more subways than we can even hope for. In that city, it is so normal and natural to have subway service at your door that the subway is no longer effective at raising land values. Brooklyn and The Bronx are served by hundreds of subway stations, but they aren't exactly wealthy neighbourhoods.

Bottom line: If Toronto ever built enough new subway lines and streetcar lines to adequately serve the city, it would be so common to have a subway station in your neighbourhood that new lines would no longer drive up land values over the long term, save for a small blip immediately upon completion.

 

[TrickyRicky]

I think you raise an important point Chuck. We can virtually count on mass public transit to remain poor in the GTA for the coming decades. That virtually guarantees that proximity to the centre and proximity to mass transit will tend to improve property values over time. Conversely, proximity to road and highway connections which now support value of property will tend to support that value less over time as the "connectivity" is reduced by ever increasing traffic congestion.

 

[adma]

Fortunately, that is not entirely true. Subways in particular were generally built in areas that were already among the wealthiest in the city - North Toronto wasn't exactly hurting before the Yonge line was built. Certain stations are in historically lower income areas, and it would be correct to say that that land values haven't exactly skyrocketed around Victoria Park station and points east.

Well, it depends on what you mean. After all, the presence of Victoria Park station *was* a spur for Crescent Town and other apartment colonies thereabouts. But what happened to said colonies over the years is another matter entirely...