Toronto 2030

[taal]

For sure it includes all of those, I just can't wrap my head around there being 300,000 people at those firms in Toronto. I wonder if they are really talking about the GTA and the references to Bay Street are just for editorial flare. I also don't like these results if they include retail banking as Toronto is oversaturated with bank branches. Other cities I have travelled to don't have anywhere near the number that we do. TD must have 30 branches within a 10 minute walk of King and Bay.

What financial firms are still up in NYCC these days? I know Teacher's, Invesco, Franklin and Transamerica are there. Anyone else? Aviva appears to have relocated to Scarborough.

I'm not sure but other then the lack of development, NYCC has very low vacancy rates, comparable to the core. So the buildings are definitely full with something.

 

[SunriseChampion]

First of all, to say that the energy based economy in Calgary is finite due to resources, that is completely bogus. .

No it's not. But it sure is bogus to claim that a finite resource is um...infinite. Or what the hell did you end up going on about? It doesn't matter if the oil will last another 40 years or another 100...it's a finite resource. It doesn't self-replicate as far as i know and it's on its way out (or should very well be anyway...once the boomer generation dies off).

And anyway, how long will it last if China continues to grow its domestic consumer market like the beast it is? And if usage shifts from oil to renewable sources of energy, lowering demand and therefore prices, where does that leave your petro-economy? I could go on but you have big scary numbers to hit me with so I won't.

 

[Register123]

Does anyone actual have a source that shows the diversity of different Canadian cities economies. I wonder if Toronto's or Vancouver's really is that much more diversified than Calgary's. And Calgary has survived the oil busts of the late seventies and eighties so I don't think it will ever stop growing or become a ghost town. Even if oil slumps to 40/barrel it is still worth mining the oil sands, ie. still profitable. And we are more likely to see oil stay at 2-3 times that price for some time to come.

 

[Thanos]

And Calgary has survived the oil busts of the late seventies and eighties so I don't think it will ever stop growing or become a ghost town.

Well the oil bust of the 80s gave Calgary vacancy rates of about 20% and unemployment at more then 10%. No one is suggesting Calgary will turn into a ghost town however, to think it will have a huge (and i mean huge) economic impact should oil prices drop to $40-50 is not out of the question.

Even if oil slumps to 40/barrel it is still worth mining the oil sands, ie. still profitable. And we are more likely to see oil stay at 2-3 times that price for some time to come.

Well no, if oil drops to that range for a prolonged period (more then half a year) expect production to be considerably reduced. And the oil execs were singing the same tune in the 70s. Kinda reminds me of real estate agents saying Canada is not in bubble territory.

 

[Register123]

Well the oil bust of the 80s gave Calgary vacancy rates of about 20% and unemployment at more then 10%. No one is suggesting Calgary will turn into a ghost town however, to think it will have a huge (and i mean huge) economic impact should oil prices drop to $40-50 is not out of the question.



Well no, if oil drops to that range for a prolonged period (more then half a year) expect production to be considerably reduced. And the oil execs were singing the same tune in the 70s. Kinda reminds me of real estate agents saying Canada is not in bubble territory.

Toronto has seen unemployment rates just as high as well as vacancy rates even though it supposedly has a more diverse economy so I don't see the difference. Seems as tough most cities see ups and downs but if a cities ups are as big as their downs (as Calgary's are) it's neither here nor there.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

Well the oil bust of the 80s gave Calgary vacancy rates of about 20% and unemployment at more then 10%. No one is suggesting Calgary will turn into a ghost town however, to think it will have a huge (and i mean huge) economic impact should oil prices drop to $40-50 is not out of the question.

Well no, if oil drops to that range for a prolonged period (more then half a year) expect production to be considerably reduced. And the oil execs were singing the same tune in the 70s. Kinda reminds me of real estate agents saying Canada is not in bubble territory.

Calgary is in considerably better shape for low oil than it was in 1980, after the RE overbuild in the '70s. Right now, nat gas is down 80% over the past two years and there hasn't been a problem with head office employment. Calgary has been a big part of the innovation in drilling that has tapped tight gas, shale oil, etc. I don't think we need to worry that there will be another bust (which is not to say there couldn't be much slower growth, as in the rest of the world.)

 

[davin12]

Interesting thread i get many information about future of Toronto

 

[TrickyRicky]

Anyone that thinks that Calgary isn't going to lead the nation in growth over the next generation is fooling themselves. That said, as I mentioned previously I find Calgary and Toronto to be more synergistic than in direct competition.

Toronto needs to look to compete internationally, not domestically. Calgary isn't even the dominant city in it's province let alone regionally in western Canada. It also isn't a dominant energy centre vis-a-vis bigger players like Houston. From a business perspective it's Vancouver I feel that is in more direct competition with Calgary. I'm not saying that Vancouver is not an amazing city but for young people there are very few prospects because of high costs of living. And I see global warming making B.C. as beautiful as it is, becoming less of a draw as a retirement destination for Canadians. Just look at this winter as an indication of the future. Alberta is comparably attractive for young Western Canadians. I could see Calgary in the future solidly becoming our nations third city.

P.S. If Ford runs against a left-of-centre candidate from downtown I would put my money on him retaining the mayor's seat.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

Calgary isn't even the dominant city in it's province let alone regionally in western Canada. It also isn't a dominant energy centre vis-a-vis bigger players like Houston.

Lots of other reasonable comments in your post, but you cast all of them into disrepute by this silliness. Calgary has been the dominant city in Alberta since the early to mid-'70s. Most provincial policy, all provincial business, and most non-governmental leadership has come from Calgary for 30+ years. It's like saying Toronto isn't Ottawa, because the feds are in Ottawa.

And to say 'Calgary isn't Houston' is to compare Calgary to the global capital of the energy business. It's like saying 'Toronto isn't London' on a financial basis -- except Calgary is probably New York to Houston's London when it comes to energy. Can you name another city in the energy business with the same profile? Denver? Don't make me laugh. Dallas? -- completely taken over by Houston. Maybe London from an energy financials perspective is in the same class... maybe. Aberdeen is a backwater, so is Oslo, so is Moscow. I can't even come up with a name from Asia.

 

[kkgg7]

I'm not sure but other then the lack of development, NYCC has very low vacancy rates, comparable to the core. So the buildings are definitely full with something.

the difference is that, it takes only a few of the big buildings in the core to match the total office space in NYCC.

 

[Hipster Duck]

Anyone that thinks that Calgary isn't going to lead the nation in growth over the next generation is fooling themselves. That said, as I mentioned previously I find Calgary and Toronto to be more synergistic than in direct competition.

Toronto needs to look to compete internationally, not domestically.

+1

There are cities that look inward - being regional centres and places of importance nationally - and cities that look outward - being places where the nation projects itself to the world, but may not be so important (relatively) within the nation. Chicago is an example of the former, and New York an example of the latter. If you go to an event for the "creative class" in Chicago, you'll most likely meet transplants from Tennessee and Michigan and Arizona. If you go to a similar event in New York, you'll meet a much larger share of Israelis, Japanese and French.

In a country like Canada, which is regionally fractured both by geography and language, it is kind of futile to play the regional centre game. At best, Toronto can only be the regional centre for 12 million Southern Ontarians - still a large area, but hardly an undisputed centre for the 21 million other Canadians who may more naturally gravitate to Montreal, Calgary or Vancouver. There's also the truism that Canadians don't like us, so why should we make them? Let's be the outward looking city and sever our ties to the rest of the country.