Toronto 2030

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Winnpeg, Calgary, Edmonton were all the same size. Winnipeg dropped the ball IMO. Calgary will reach 2.2 million people soon I think but thats it.

 

[StCatharinesCitizen]

For Alberta's oil sands to remain cost effective the price of oil must remain high. As i said earlier, should the price of oil hit the 90s level you will see Alberta's economy get hit hard. It's happened before and for anyone to think it can't happen again is ridiculous.
Saudi and several other oil reserves around the world have a cost advantage on Alberta.
Speak to many in the know and they'll tell you the biggest mistake Alberta has done is rely too heavily on oil revenue and not diversify its economy.

OPEC continues to hold the price of oil high and I highly doubt it will ever drop to 1990 levels. They continue to use global warming as an excuse to keep the oil prices high. Although they are making more money with higher oil prices, it puts a good image on them with the environmentalist because they are "deterring" people from consuming oil even though demand continues to rise. Demand will only fall if other (cheaper) alternatives to oil are found. As for now, this is not going to happen in the forseeable future since green technologies are only beginning to advance and continue to stay at a higher price than oil consuming technologies (gas vs. electricity). If the demand stays high, the suppliers will continue to supply, the demand needs to change (meaning consumers are the ones who need to make changes ex. hybrid, electric, solar) which isn't yet financially viable. Calgary will absolutely prosper from its reliance on the oil sands and it will diversify its economy with this income. The future of Canada lies not in the West, but in a wholey diversified economy, meaning that Toronto will not dominate Canadas GDP, but rather it will be spread throughout economic centres in every province. This can already be seen in Regina, Saskatoon, Vancouver/Victoria, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and the Windsor-Quebec City corridor (includes GTA, Niagara Region, Southern Ontario, Ottawa-Gatineau and Montreal-Quebec City). Canadas economic prosperity is spreading throughout the country rather than basing itself in just Ontario, Quebec and BC. Although this can't be said for the Eastern Provinces...

 

[Thanos]

this can't be said for the Eastern Provinces...

What do you mean by this? Are you referring to the Atlantic provinces. Because Newfoundland is doing fine despite its government mismanaging everything and anything. And Halifax is set to boom with the navy contracts. PEI is too small to really matter truth be told. It's more of Canada's vacation province. And New Brunswick is moving along fine.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

What do you mean by this? Are you referring to the Atlantic provinces. Because Newfoundland is doing fine despite its government mismanaging everything and anything. And Halifax is set to boom with the navy contracts. PEI is too small to really matter truth be told. It's more of Canada's vacation province. And New Brunswick is moving along fine.

He's talking about the fact Ontario and Quebec are in a nasty defecit.. Alberta and BC have defecits, but not nearly as bad

 

[kkgg7]

Canada’s financial capital is on track to become one of the largest global banking centers—overtaking London in the number of banking jobs by 2017, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Toronto’s financial district—known as Bay Street after the thoroughfare that cuts through its middle—has 320,000 financial -services jobs to London’s 400,000. But Toronto is expected to add about 100,000 banking jobs between now and 2020, while London is expected to lose a further 30,000 jobs over the same period, on top of the 60,000 positions lost in London during the first two years of the recent financial crisis.

http://www.gfmag.com/archives/146-january-2012/11539-toronto-to-overtake-london-as-a-hub-for-bankers.html#axzz1n61wtlOV

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Canada’s financial capital is on track to become one of the largest global banking centers—overtaking London in the number of banking jobs by 2017, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Toronto’s financial district—known as Bay Street after the thoroughfare that cuts through its middle—has 320,000 financial -services jobs to London’s 400,000. But Toronto is expected to add about 100,000 banking jobs between now and 2020, while London is expected to lose a further 30,000 jobs over the same period, on top of the 60,000 positions lost in London during the first two years of the recent financial crisis.

http://www.gfmag.com/archives/146-january-2012/11539-toronto-to-overtake-london-as-a-hub-for-bankers.html#axzz1n61wtlOV

Good. Some Good News for Toronto.

 

[Jonny5]

Canada’s financial capital is on track to become one of the largest global banking centers—overtaking London in the number of banking jobs by 2017, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Toronto’s financial district—known as Bay Street after the thoroughfare that cuts through its middle—has 320,000 financial -services jobs to London’s 400,000. But Toronto is expected to add about 100,000 banking jobs between now and 2020, while London is expected to lose a further 30,000 jobs over the same period, on top of the 60,000 positions lost in London during the first two years of the recent financial crisis.

Those numbers seem wildly off base. CIBC, BMO, TD, Scotia and RBC all combined have fewer than 320,000 employees across the entire world.

EDIT: Also, London only claims to have 325,000 financial sector jobs. I think someone at Moody's has confused jobs in downtown Toronto with financial sector jobs in downtown Toronto. So the 10 people behind the counter at Subway in BCE place are counting as financial sector jobs. I would love to be proved wrong, but these numbers sound bizarre.

EDIT 2: I shoud add that this is especially odd to here this week when BMO and McLean Budden laid off a lot of very experienced and well paid staff and RBC was put on credit review for a downgrade and rumours are swirling they are going to gut the Dexia staff when they take over. It has been a very bad week on Bay Street.

 

[kkgg7]

Good. Some Good News for Toronto.

Canadian banks are too timid. No Canadian bank is truly international so far and they are way too conservative (possibly due to right regulation).

Many people gloat that Canadians banks survived the financial crisis much better - it is a good think but it is also a double edged sword. A bank has to take risks to obtain high reward, as long as it is not excessively high and with the right risk control. For example, JP Morgan did far better than other American banks. On the other hand Canadian banks are too risk averse. For example, they don't grant loan (including mortgage) longer than 5 years even to customers with the best credit, therefore forgoing a large lucrative market.

The fact that Canadian banks did better during the financial crisis is a good thing, but people tend to exaggerate the prudence here. It is like if you investment 100% of your asset in fixed income asset with AAA rating, of course you are unlikely to lose in bad times than those who invest 60% in equity. But you don't get the high earnings in good years either. There should be a good balance and I don't think Canadian banks are doing the best their potential allows them to. They are too comfortable in the dominance in the local market. (some have overseas business, but nowhere near truly international banks such as HSBC)

 

[Jonny5]

Canadian banks are too timid. No Canadian bank is truly international so far and they are way too conservative (possibly due to right regulation).

The reasons they appear to have been timid are complex. When financial services were deregulated in the 80's it took a long time for the industry to consolidate. You may not believe this, but when I opened my first bank account in the 80's I had 13 different financial institutions to choose from, and that's just in walking distance from my house (for those interested, it was Victoria and Gray Trust). There was a long period of mergers, between banks and trusts, banks and insurance companies and banks and brokerages. Until the 80's you could not operate in any more than one of those businesses so there was a time after deregulation where there were mergers happening almost every week. By the 90's it had settled into the Big 5 (+2) we now know. There was simply no time to worry about expanding outwards, there were massive changes happening inside the country that took 10 years to shake out. Now Scotia did venture into South America in the 90's, but they were burned badly and it rattled a lot of the other banks back in Canada convincing them not to go abroad. CIBC just sucked at everything and was in no position to expand. TD, BMO and RBC did make plays in the US and they have done ok for themselves. I would like more risk taking in theory, but I'm not sure this is a good time to "risk-on".

 

[Lenser]

Calgary will plateau in importance within 30 years and then decline. Sorry but their power and importance is mostly derived from an outdated and finite technology and resource.

What's to stop Calgary from using all of that wealth from resources to seed for other industries and business opportunities - in short, to diversify? It's what most successful cities do when they reach a certain stage of prosperity. Once you're substantially diversified, you're at least somewhat insulated should the bottom drop out of your historical power base.

 

[kkgg7]

Those numbers seem wildly off base. CIBC, BMO, TD, Scotia and RBC all combined have fewer than 320,000 employees across the entire world.

EDIT: Also, London only claims to have 325,000 financial sector jobs. I think someone at Moody's has confused jobs in downtown Toronto with financial sector jobs in downtown Toronto. So the 10 people behind the counter at Subway in BCE place are counting as financial sector jobs. I would love to be proved wrong, but these numbers sound bizarre.

EDIT 2: I shoud add that this is especially odd to here this week when BMO and McLean Budden laid off a lot of very experienced and well paid staff and RBC was put on credit review for a downgrade and rumours are swirling they are going to gut the Dexia staff when they take over. It has been a very bad week on Bay Street.

I think it was about "financial services", not just banks. Insurance companies such as Manulife, Canada Life should count, as do pension funds, asset management firms. There are many other independent boutique firms outside the big 5 banks, right?

 

[Jonny5]

I think it was about "financial services", not just banks. Insurance companies such as Manulife, Canada Life should count, as do pension funds, asset management firms. There are many other independent boutique firms outside the big 5 banks, right?

For sure it includes all of those, I just can't wrap my head around there being 300,000 people at those firms in Toronto. I wonder if they are really talking about the GTA and the references to Bay Street are just for editorial flare. I also don't like these results if they include retail banking as Toronto is oversaturated with bank branches. Other cities I have travelled to don't have anywhere near the number that we do. TD must have 30 branches within a 10 minute walk of King and Bay.

What financial firms are still up in NYCC these days? I know Teacher's, Invesco, Franklin and Transamerica are there. Anyone else? Aviva appears to have relocated to Scarborough.

 

[innsertnamehere]

My official list;


Tall Buildings

Toronto got it's first super tall in 2016, after it being announced in 2012. It is BAC 2, and stands in at 324m. the lead tenant is CIBC, which decided to consolidate its office's scattered across the city. FCP is the 6th tallest building in the city. toronto's tallest building is 386m. It's a Condo built in yorkville at the tail end of the cities extended condo boom, that never really ends, but rather just slowly putters down to a more regular pace of about 15,000 units yearly.


Sports

The pan-american games are (somewhat surprisingly) pulled off without a hitch, leading to a strong olympic 2024 bid. Toronto goes on to win the bid for the 2024 olympics. A new permanent stadium for 75,000 people is built in the portlands for it, and despite the NFL saying it will not put a team there after the games, toronto still gets a team in 2026. The leafs Finally win The stanley cup in 2027, but not after a massive riot akin to the vancouver riots of 2010 in 2023, which is a huge embarrassment for the city, especially 1 year before holding the olympics.

municipal borders

Some of the surrounding municipalities around the city are amalgamated, which include missisauga, vaughn, richmond hill, and markham. Pickering-whitby-ajax become one singular municipality.

Transit

Toronto finally completes the Eglington line, as a partial above ground partial below ground LRT in 2022. The DRL is constructed for the Olympic games, but is not finished until the summer after, leading to the Olympics being a disaster transit wise. In 2030 the pickering airport officially begins construction, despite heavy resistance from the locals. in some weird series of events, a couple of historic farm houses are left in the middle of the airport (in between runways) for "historic preservation". the airport will open (apparently) in 2034. The finch line is finished in 2024. Sheppard is extended as a subway, after much (much, much, much) political strife, in 2026. A high speed rail link that cruises at 265km/h is completed in 2029, running in a route of toronto-kingston-ottawa-montreal.

Politics

Mayor rob ford runs for office in 2014, but gets less than 5% of the vote, the lowest ever for a city mayor running for re-election in canada. All mayors are left wing for the next 4 terms, as too many are scared of letting in another disastrous mayor such as ford. Missisauga Mayor McCallion is re-elected in 2014, only to pass away in office in 2015. a prompt re-election is called, and a new visionary mayor is elected that turns the city away from its old suburban ways, and finally turns it into a fully fledged city. (only to have it annexed by Toronto in 2027)

The provincial government somehow manages to get away with suing the smoking industry for 50 billion dollars, (due to stress caused on healthcare) which it then uses to pay of its now 21 billion dollar debt, fund the Sheppard subway, the HSR link, and to make significant investments in the education and healthcare systems. london also happens to finally get a highway.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

For sure it includes all of those, I just can't wrap my head around there being 300,000 people at those firms in Toronto. I wonder if they are really talking about the GTA and the references to Bay Street are just for editorial flare. I also don't like these results if they include retail banking as Toronto is oversaturated with bank branches. Other cities I have travelled to don't have anywhere near the number that we do. TD must have 30 branches within a 10 minute walk of King and Bay.

What financial firms are still up in NYCC these days? I know Teacher's, Invesco, Franklin and Transamerica are there. Anyone else? Aviva appears to have relocated to Scarborough.

I wish NYCC was bigger, it should have been. It would be great to have more traffic upthere.

 

[yin_yang]

2020: ryerson is the lead tenant in an innovative mixed-use high-rise, replacing imperial pub and such on dundas just east of victoria. 200m. high-speed elevators on the exoskeleton as well as in the core to accommodate the traffic. condos, offices, classrooms and retail.