Layton has a chance. While the conditions aren't nearly as favourable, he could get a bit of what I'll call the "Rae Boost." Obviously not enough for a government, but good for a significant increase in seat numbers. Many Liberals are disgruntled, and Layton has at least a chance of attracting these floaters. Most of them have likely voted Liberal consistently with the exception of 84 and possibly 88. That could mean that they'd go for a protest option, like the NDP, rather than an alternative government like the Conservatives since they might still consider themselves Liberals at heart. Ontario in 1990 had a somewhat similar situation. Voters were angry with the Liberals for Meech and the early election call, but were tilting left rather than right. There are huge differences, however. Rae came off as extremely polished, professional, articulate and intelligent. Essentially first-minister material. I think many people viewed Peterson as arrogant, and Rae made an excellent, more humble substitute. First, the bad news. Unfortunately, Layton doesn't share most of these characteristics. He has an unfortunate penchant for stunts and hyperbole, and many see him as a radical. Canada is far more diverse than Ontario, and even the province will never elect someone identified as being from Toronto. Even Rae was from the suburbs (York Centre). Layton is clearly a Downtown Toronto man, and that likely cost them some of those Saskatchewan seats. Ontario also doesn't have a region with nearly a quarter of the population that will never deliver more than one or two NDP seats. Most importantly of all, in 1990 the Tories were not a factor at all. They had an unimpressive rural extremist for a leader that didn't project any of the values that Ontarians supported. His name was Mike Harris. Sure enough, they came a distant third. By contrast, the federal Conservatives are much more of a factor than the NDP. In fact, they are the most likely next government. Obviously, left-leaning voters, particularly traditional Liberals, will vote strategically to avoid a Harper Conservative majority government. They will remember the vote-split in 1988 delivering Brian Mulroney his second majority.
What Layton needs to do is establish personal credibility. He needs to be a man that is moderate, reasonable and articulate but also has a certain charisma that prevents him from fading into the background like Alexa McDonough and Audrey McLaughlin did. Many think that Rae won the 1990 debate, and he was an unquestionably good orator. Layton didn't manage that in 2004. He doesn't need to play to his base. There's no way they're going to jump ship now. What he needs is to go after the Liberal disgruntled by scandal and also the (Progressive) Conservative disgruntled by extremism but unwilling to touch the scandal-ravaged Grits. Rae established his credibility by being a partner in government rather than sniping from the outside. He gave Peterson some of the 85-87 government's most popular policies. If Layton can continue to show himself rising above the fray, that'll definitely help. He can't do things like denouncing the Clarity Bill that will get him labelled a radical and even stir divisions within his own party, as was demonstrated by Blaikie's public opposition. He has some significant assets. He's functionally bilingual, he's certainly intelligent, and I think most people think he's pretty honest, too. That's far from a bad combination.
You need to think in terms of seat pickups, though. Where can he win his seats? The NDP is incredibly weak among immigrant communities. They'd have a hard time turning that around in one campaign, but they can give it a try. That could help them win many more seats in urban areas. The Maritimes obviously won't be as receptive to Layton as they were to McDonough and they don't have a strong NDP tradition, but his policies are certainly attractive to people in that region. He can build on McDonough's base, perhaps with a even-more-sweetened equalization deal. A real good strategy for Quebec would be to push hard for EI reform. Interestingly, that's a huge issue there that doesn't even make it onto the radar in English Canada. The federalist party that will "fix" EI could be a saleable product. Northern Ontario might deliver a couple of seats, as could some cities like Hamilton and Oshawa. Many Toronto area seats have Liberal majorities so strong that it would take a sweep of 1984 proportions to dislodge them. The NDP isn't a factor in most of the 905. There are still some great opportunities, though. Layton didn't deliver the downtown seats everyone expected last time. That situation may not repeat itself. Obviously Liberal support is lower than it was in 2004. More importantly, the NDP campaign teams were somewhat cocky last time and expected easy victories in Trinity-Spadina, Beaches-East York, Parkdale-High Park and some other ridings. It didn't work out that way, and this time they can be counted on to fight much harder. Still, the NDP can't win many seats in Toronto without breaking into the immigrant communities which are the bedrock of Liberal support. Most interestingly, though, the NDP could benefit from a reverse vote split. In many ridings, right-leaning Liberals and immigrants angry about same-sex could bleed off to the Conservatives. The NDP could come up the middle in a number of cases. Finally, some strong Toronto-area Liberals might not run again next time. The prairies are probably pretty much a write-off. I doubt they'll get back any of their Saskatchewan seats, and they don't have too much room to grow in Manitoba, either. Even more lucrative than Ontario, though, could be BC which is filled with 3- and even 4-way races. While Liberal support rose significantly in that province last time, the polls suggest that it has dropped back down again. This will give them more comfortable wins in places like Burnaby-Doublas and could deliver several Conservative Vancouver-area seats and others like some of the island ridings, Dewdney-Alouette and Jim Gouk's riding (the name escapes me). Liberals like Keith Martin could fall, too. Altogether, a well-run campaign with the strong individual candidates that the NDP is known for, coupled with some lucky breaks could deliver the NDP dozens of new seats. Remember that the first-past-the-post system may keep a party in the doldrums for a long time, but once a certain threshold is past they could see an explosion in the number of seats they win.
My two cents worth, I guess.
