Perhaps, the cost of being available for business (Labour cost and labour availability and general overhead) vs cash returns? I think you see this on other areas as well, shorter operational hours with many better than decent pubs and restaurants. And not just in Toronto either, or this continent for that matter. But it does impact a sense of neighbourhood and lifestyle.
Its worthwhile speculation, and no doubt, some businesses by way of evolution in retail underway before, and accelerated through the pandemic have seen some decline in bricks and mortar volumes. The stats I track, from commercial rent to median hourly wage though don't suggest a broad-based spiral in costs.
While I can envision some pressure on business from sales sliding online, one would think this would be lower in hospitality-based business, generally, even one with a relative uptick in deliveries (unless you run a ghost kitchen, a bricks and mortar coffee shop still supplies the coffee and pastry your order on Uber Eats or such.
Additionally much of what hospitality based businesses do is provide, specifically, an out-of-home experience. Given that Toronto's population has risen by 300,000+ in recent years (City proper), and that retail square footage hasn't exploded, one would think there's inherent pressure to be bringing in $$ at every viable hour.
Has there just been a seismic shift in only 5 or 10 years away from late night activity out-of-home?
Has the decline in clubbing, late-night movies, or overnight work been so substantial as to erode demand below a minimum threshold? I don't know.
I have a suspicion that executive thinking on return (profit) per visit plays a role. But I am suspicious of whether this thinking plays out well. In movie theatres, there was a move to fewer venues
to consolidate costs and arguably improve product selection for the customer. But this reduced the geographic convenience and profile of cinemas, while also making them more expensive to keep open at all hours (a 6 screen cinema can be operated by 3 staff, but an 18-screen cinema requires six, generally, and that means you need much higher volumes to open the door.
The same line of thinking led to eliminating time-of-day discounts, where now, with many cinemas you pay the same for a ticket at 2pm on a Monday and 7pm on a Saturday. The result has been far fewer weekday, daytime customers, and Tuesday night customers, as those who were price sensitive (retired, students, unemployed etc.) disproportionately used those off-peak pricing periods. Those customers made the cinema money because the chains sold them concession at full price at any time. That's where the $$ are in that industry.
Now many cinemas don't run weekday matinees, which in turn reduces business profile, shifts movie going online etc.
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Back to Coffee Shops............I wonder if the same phenomenon isn't at play in some respects. The ticket price issue doesn't exist; there may be some cross-over though from fewer other late night shopping/dining/entertainment options and this has something of a multiplier effect. Does a customer who might have in the past gone out late not bother because there are too few options to think it would be at all fun?
Do fewer open retail businesses also contract the late night labour supply enough to also erode the late night customer base?