SmartTrack (Proposed)

[Palma]

It must be emphasized that all these numbers, including from City Planning, are preliminary. They're not the final results; they merely give an idea of where this is headed.

That said, read the description of what Metrolinx modelled in their projection, and compare it to the plan City Planning is expected to endorse, and worked with Metrolinx to formulate. Both plans are very similar. Metrolinx projects only 24,000 daily ridership. If so, this is very bad news for Tory. There's not a chance in hell of that being approved.

Its amazing that 24,ooo daily projection is bad news then how is it possible scarborough is getting a subway (supposedly) with their low ridership numbers? But then again, these reports always seem to show the numbers that will support the final outcome the author of report wanted

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The description doesn't give enough information to come to the conclusion that both plans are very similar.

Less stations could mean simply using existing stations, or 2-3 less stations than Smart Track was proposing. We don't know which it is according to the description from the article. 5-10 minute frequency isn't the same as 5 minute frequencies either. And then you also have to consider the fares, which are also different.

I addressed the fare difference here:

http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/threads/smarttrack-proposed.21038/page-130#post-1072420

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Its amazing that 24,ooo daily projection is bad news then how is it possible scarborough is getting a subway (supposedly) with their low ridership numbers? But then again, these reports always seem to show the numbers that will support the final outcome the author of report wanted

Umm... No. Peak hour ridership on SSE is 14,000 pphpd. It's daily ridership will certainly exceed 24,000 per day.

 

[Palma]

^ I can't believe that just the replacement of the heavy-rail Eglinton leg with LRT can cause the ridership to drop from 315,000 to 24,000.

There must be other, very substantial differences between those two models.

Plus if Toronto is putting up billions why would it be GO fares? Plus I do not see the other municipalities that has GO being asked to contribute money towards projects so why is Toronto. If the ST was eventually built as planned to go into Markham, would Markham be asked to put in money.

Plus is the fare will be between TTC and GO fares (as article states), if the DRL was built it would be TTC fares so I still do not understand why the fares for this is different especially since Toronto is putting up over 2B for it.

 

[WislaHD]

Its amazing that 24,ooo daily projection is bad news then how is it possible scarborough is getting a subway (supposedly) with their low ridership numbers? But then again, these reports always seem to show the numbers that will support the final outcome the author of report wanted

Umm... No. Peak hour ridership on SSE is 14,000 pphpd. It's daily ridership will certainly exceed 24,000 per day.

For reference, the Scarborough RT carried 38,810 daily riders on average in 2014.

So the current SmartTrack plan doesn't even compete with the SRT...

 

[BurlOak]

^ I can't believe that just the replacement of the heavy-rail Eglinton leg with LRT can cause the ridership to drop from 315,000 to 24,000.

There must be other, very substantial differences between those two models.

It would be interesting to see the projections for Eglinton West itself. I imagine all the numbers listed are for peak location - which is Union.

It does seem to suggest that GO fares are very cost prohibitive for riders, and riders really prefer faster transit and less transfers. All things that an elevated Eglitnon West line with TTC fares would address.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The description doesn't give enough information to come to the conclusion that both plans are very similar.

Less stations could mean simply using existing stations, or 2-3 less stations than Smart Track was proposing. We don't know which it is according to the description from the article. 5-10 minute frequency isn't the same as 5 minute frequencies either. And then you also have to consider the fares, which are also different.

There is some ambiguity in the descriptions, yes. But not enough so that it should cause a dramatic change in usage:

Here's the description from today's article:
The unreleased Metrolinx projection, meanwhile, paints a very different picture. It shows daily ridership in the range of 12,000. This assumes a change from heavy to light rail along Eglinton Avenue West, fewer stations, a GO fare and trains every five to 10 minutes.

And from Friday:
Although details have not been finalized, Metrolinx staff are expected to recommend adding only four or five new stations along the Kitchener and Stouffville corridors, and an LRT – instead of heavy rail – along Eglinton Avenue West to Pearson airport. The plan originally called for three stations along that stretch, but with an LRT, staff are looking at between six and 17 stations.

And later in that same article:

With ridership modelling showing that the initial proposal to run trains every 15 minutes would not attract a sufficient number of passengers, officials are looking at running trains at least every 10 minutes, and as often as nearly every five minutes in some areas, during peak periods.

• Both assume LRT on Eglinton
• Both have fewer stations. It's not clear what exactly "fewer stations" means in the context of Metrolinx's newest projection. But fewer stations does presumably mean less ridership. So if Metrolinx did indeed come up with 12,000 daily riderships with about 20 stations, that's even worse than 12,000 with "four or five new stations"
• Descriptions of the frequencies are similar. "at least every 10 minutes, and as often as nearly every five minutes" vs. "trains every five to 10 minutes.". Of course, a train every 5 mins can have very different ridership patterns than a train every 9 minutes. We'll have to wait to see.
• Finally, there is the difference between GO fares and TTC fares. TTC fares are expected to carry 2x to 2.5x as many people as the 12,000 people it would carry on GO fares. So 24,000 to 30,000 under TTC fare, roughly.

Remember, City Staff worked on Metrolinx to create the ECLRT + RER with five to 10 min frequencies concept (the newest concept). The two groups aren't working in isolation. The two descriptions are so similar that I think it's plenty reasonable to say that these are probably the same things being described.

 

[WislaHD]

Upgrades to union station alone might cost around $3 Billion.

Western spur was $5 Billion.

Upgrades to RER infrastructure within Toronto would be billions more (new rights of ways, track widening, tunnels, expropoation).

Upgrades to RER infrastructure outside of Toronto might be needed as well.

This plan will likely be rejected because it was outrageously expensive. This plan is also is likely not competitive with the Relief Line on a capital cost/rider basis.

This is laughable.

Politicians could come up with better transit plans if they visited UT.

 

[rbt]

If SmartTrack is built as Tory described in his campaign is unmodified (25 stations, 55 km, 5 min frequencies) they expect 315,000 riders per day if train comes every 5 minutes, which is fantastic.

But that version is not what city planning is evaluating anymore, due to its high costs.

I think this quote in the article sums it up:

"A Metrolinx spokeswoman said it was premature to discuss its ridership projections."​

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I think this quote in the article sums it up:

"A Metrolinx spokeswoman said it was premature to discuss its ridership projections."​

Likewise, City Planning's numbers are preliminary. Both will change. This simply gives us a peek at what is in store.

 

[Tuscani01]

The Star has a story on the report now, with more information:

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/01/18/u-of-t-study-bullish-on-smarttrack-ridership.html

“There appears to be a very significant latent demand for transit service in the corridor that manifests itself once the transit service becomes sufficiently attractive,”

 

[ssiguy2]

If MX has the nerve to say that ST will only get 24,000 passengers a day on a 20 km line serving the inner city and downtown core then god knows the DRL is a waste of money as well.

Much of the downtown portion is parallel to the King streetcar but according to this everyone will keep using the King car because they like to stand up for half an hour to go 6 blocks. The tens of thousands of new residents in Corktown/Waterfront/Portland/Liberty Village obviously won't consider taking a subway according to this data.

You can love ST or hate it but 24,000 is so patently absurd. That would make it the lowest ridership subway line in the entire Americas despite going thru the core of NA's second most populace and densely populated urban core on the continent with the 3rd highest per capita ridership level in NA. This would give this entire 20km subway line in the downtown less ridership than the 6km stubway that goes no where.

How a MD/Union/Ken subway route running every 5 minutes at peak with standard fare could get less than 150,000 riders a day would be beyond me.

Like I said, you may hate everything about ST {and Tory for that matter} but saying it would only get 24k riders a day is just MX doing some pathological lying to try to kill the plan.

 

[rbt]

300,000 per day? Holy hell, if that were true, then SmartTrack would have completely overwhelmed Union Station!

It's not as bad as it sounds because a heafty chunk of that ridership would be off-peak. Still looking at an additional 35kpph arriving at Union during AM peak.

 

[ShonTron]

Putting Eric Miller in charge of a SmartTrack study is like expecting a fair judicial proceeding in Manitowoc, Wisconsin.

Here he is in 2014, giving SmartTrack an "A+", while dismissing criticisms as "politically motivated."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...-but-experts-find-faults-in-funding-1.2806075

And in Toronto Star op-ed, shilling for SmartTrack, says that "analysis to date indicates high ridership and cost-recovery potential that is expected to be confirmed by more detailed post-election studies; and it is modelled on successful international best practice.
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/comm..._system_we_need_and_commit_to_funding_it.html

Here he is in 2015, after getting the contract to study SmartTrack:
http://www.news.utoronto.ca/can-expert-solve-torontos-transit-woes

I'm a little cynical.

 

[WislaHD]

If MX has the nerve to say that ST will only get 24,000 passengers a day on a 20 km line serving the inner city and downtown core then god knows the DRL is a waste of money as well.

Much of the downtown portion is parallel to the King streetcar but according to this everyone will keep using the King car because they like to stand up for half an hour to go 6 blocks. The tens of thousands of new residents in Corktown/Waterfront/Portland/Liberty Village obviously won't consider taking a subway according to this data.

You can love ST or hate it but 24,000 is so patently absurd. That would make it the lowest ridership subway line in the entire Americas despite going thru the core of NA's second most populace and densely populated urban core on the continent with the 3rd highest per capita ridership level in NA. This would give this entire 20km subway line in the downtown less ridership than the 6km stubway that goes no where.

How a MD/Union/Ken subway route running every 5 minutes at peak with standard fare could get less than 150,000 riders a day would be beyond me.

Like I said, you may hate everything about ST {and Tory for that matter} but saying it would only get 24k riders a day is just MX doing some pathological lying to try to kill the plan.

Who is using the MD/Union/Ken SmartTrack?

That route does not connect with many major bus routes that the alignment to Unionville does. People from the SSE have little incentive to transfer at Kennedy rather than continue on Line 2, especially if there is no fare integration. Markham and northern Scarborough are using GO-RER in 2031, not SmartTrack. There is no longer incentive for counter-peak flow to employment hubs in Markham/Mississauga. The line does not connect with any north-south streetcar or bus routes on the east end, meaning those people will continue to head to Line 2 or relevant streetcars. The people of Corktown/Waterfront/Portland/Liberty Village require local transit more so than cross-town transit (and the 504 will likely be more efficient than the MX report indicates if the transit mall plans for King Street announced yesterday pan out). The Unilever site remains undeveloped. And finally, most people's destination is not Union Station, it is the stretch between King and Dundas.

It actually seems pretty reasonable once you give it more thought. Who are these 24,000 SmartTrack riders anyway? I am curious to find out where they *are* coming from.