I think Eglinton will show people that the LRT is fantastic transit infrastructure.
Scarborough/the east side of the city doesn't need two subway lines. If the SSE goes ahead, then I can see Sheppard going on the back burner. Converting it to an LRT line could make sense in that situation. I doubt that will happen though.
The most sensible solution if Scarborough has to have a subway would have been to leave the Scarborough LRT in place (which would've opened now) and allowed for a focus on extending Sheppard. The City Council compromise plan of having the Eglinton Line go to SSE (with some of it above ground) and a couple of Sheppard extension stops could've set the table for a full extension now. Unfortunately that was rejected by Ford, who had no interest in compromise.
The 7 stop LRT could've been the start of continuous and sensible transit expansion in Scarborough. Instead, we're stuck with decades of madness.
LRT has its issues as well, and being low floor is not really an asset for Scarborough (it certainly would be on routes like the waterfront LRT, but that's better served by Flexity Outlooks). In terms of the most economically sensible solution for Line 3, an upgrade to Mark III vehicles would be the best solution.
Whatever is going to be built will be built after the dry gets to Sheppard. When that happens we will find out how few people are going to want to use the Sheppard subway to get to yonge. One because once you get to yonge you will be fighting for a seat. Two because the drl will have less stops making it faster. When those two things become a reality the Sheppard subway will become even more a ghost town. At that point people are just going to want transit to get them to the drl. Lrt does that cheaper and can be built faster. Then the talk of the conversion will happen. We aren't going to build a full subway on Sheppard while build a lower capacity Ontario Drl. None of it makes sense.
I wouldn't be so certain of that, the Bayview, Bessarion and Leslie areas are densifying, and a lot can happen in 20 years. Maybe we'll finally see some bus routes serving the Willowdale Community, further increasing Leslie's use. If Bayview's ridership can get to 15K PPD, Bessarion's to 5-10K PPD, and Leslie's to 10-15K PPD (meaning Don Mills will likely see 50-55K PPD), I can see the line still serving at least 50K passengers per day even with the Relief Line and the crowding at Sheppard Station. We'd have to consider new reverse commutes from Sheppard Yonge Station to Don Mills station, potentially driving the ridership of the line up to 60K PPD. A new line doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in ridership, especially when you're considering the fact that the new line won't be around for at least 20 years. This is especially true with gas prices only going to increase in the coming years and the fact that the corridor will eventually have to accept being a transit-focussed one, regardless of whether it happens in 5 years or 15 years. The corridor might even be a good pilot zone for flex-transit testing in the region. Again, I think the corridor needs to remain as it is, at least until we see where Relief Line North ends up going.
Honestly, I'd rather see those 2 billion dollars for a subway conversion and use those to help extend the line west to Sheppard West. Having the subway extend west opens up a lot of potential uses for those living in North York, Markham, Richmond Hill, Scarborough, and Vaughan. It's definitely not the most sensible solution now, but it could, along with zoning changes, allow the density of Yonge St. through North York Centre to expand laterally, something that city officials have wanted for decades. It could also open up new routings to U of T, GO, Eglinton West, the airport, and Yorkdale, Spadina, St Clair West, even Bloor West, especially for those living on the Sheppard Corridor. Take someone living at Don Mills Station heading to U of T, their options would be to:
- Catch a Sheppard train, for 16 minutes, transfer to Line 1 at Sheppard West, and head south for another 20 minutes to Queens Park, for a 35-40 minute journey
- Catch a Sheppard Train for 8 minutes, transfer to line 1 at Sheppard Yonge, and head south for 20 minutes to Bloor Yonge, transfer there, head west on Line 2 for 3 minutes, transfer at St. George, head south for 3 minutes, for a total journey time of between 36 and 55 minutes, depending on transfer times (during rush hour, you're very likely to be closer to the 55 minute mark simply because of the crowding at Bloor Yonge and St. George). This is the most stressful journey.
- Catch a sheppard train for 8 minutes, then a Line 1 train for 35 minutes to Queen's Park station, for a total trip time of between 45 and 50 minutes
- Catch a relief Line train to Osgoode, taking about 45 minutes, plus transferring north on Line one, adding 3 minutes for a total trip time of about 50 minutes.
And that's just one journey, there are many many commutes that could benefit from adding that connection. It would mean all 3 north-south routes would be connected by one line. Eglinton will also do this but to a lesser extent because of crowding that will likely ensue along the line within 10 years.
