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Rob Ford's Toronto

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Riverdale Rink Rat said:
I'm totally enjoying the 2% increase is 'just inflation cost-of-living, don't cha know', vibe. YOY Nov 2012 CPI was +0.8%.
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That's cherry picking isn't it? January 2012 inflation was 2.5% over January 2011. January 2011 inflation was 2.3% over January 2010. January 2010 inflation was 1.9% over January 2009. Whose to say what the 2013 inflation rate over 2012 will be? 2% is certainly a reasonable estimate.
 
How is it cherry-picking?

nfitz said:
That's cherry picking isn't it? January 2012 inflation was 2.5% over January 2011. January 2011 inflation was 2.3% over January 2010. January 2010 inflation was 1.9% over January 2009. Whose to say what the 2013 inflation rate over 2012 will be? 2% is certainly a reasonable estimate.
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Nfitz, it's the latest data available. 2pc is only a reasonable estimate because it's the BoC target range's median. Given growth slowing and the CAD still strong, I'd say it's more than reasonable to expect inflation to stay at the bottom of their target range, especially as they continue to pretend to have a tightening bias.

But it's a quibble. Even if you use 2pc, they're still using the COLA argument they used to crucify others for using.
 
Riverdale Rink Rat said:
Nfitz, it's the latest data available.
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It's cherry picking as it doesn't appear representative of long-term CPI increases. It's the lowest year-over-year increase we've seen for a couple of years ... though even past lows (and negative rates) in the last decade haven't stuck around for long.

At the same time, tax rates are falling relative to assessed property values. In 2001 the rate was 0.700544%. By 2004 it had fell to 0.5929546% and by 2011 it was 0.5619218%. Last year was 0.5501981% and if I understand 2013.EX27.3 correctly, it's down to 0.5337653% this year.

I assume that 2% represents the mean tax increase a residential property would pay. Those whose assessed house prices have increased faster than average would pay more, and those who have increased slower would pay less. It would be interesting to see what the median increase is, rather than the mean.
 
nfitz said:
I assume that 2% represents the mean tax increase a residential property would pay. Those whose assessed house prices have increased faster than average would pay more, and those who have increased slower would pay less. It would be interesting to see what the median increase is, rather than the mean.
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I'm betting the median is higher, but maybe not. Condos have stagnated, but the sweet spot has been 'entry level' detached, where prices have skyrocketed. If the top end has also stagnated, you could have a situation where the 'upper middle class', especially new buyers, get hosed, but the top end doesn't feel as much pain.
 
Riverdale Rink Rat said:
I'm betting the median is higher, but maybe not. Condos have stagnated, but the sweet spot has been 'entry level' detached, where prices have skyrocketed. If the top end has also stagnated, you could have a situation where the 'upper middle class', especially new buyers, get hosed, but the top end doesn't feel as much pain.
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You need to separate the tax RATE from the tax bill. The 2% Council has just approved is the increase in the tax RATE (the mill rate) NOT the amount an individual property owner will pay. If your property evaluation has gone up by the same % as the average residential property in Toronto your tax will go up by 2% but most people's property evaluations go up (or down) by more (or less) than the average.
 
nfitz said:
I assume that 2% represents the mean tax increase a residential property would pay. Those whose assessed house prices have increased faster than average would pay more, and those who have increased slower would pay less. It would be interesting to see what the median increase is, rather than the mean.
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2% represents the increase in the target for revenue raised through property taxes. In other words, the line in the buget that says "Income from property taxes" will be 2% higher this year than last year.

Since the assessment base has grown through the addition of new properties, the mean tax increase will be less than 2%.

New properties keep actual tax bills down, but they have no affect on the need for annual so-called "tax hikes".

Any homeowners on here with their old tax bills filed away? It would be interesting to hear what a real-world example of tax bills on a property has looked like over the past decade.
 
Budget going up today with various motions passing and failing.

$3.1 million added to budget for fire department. I've read on Twitter that Ford supported that.

$1.163 million for student nutrition program also passed. Ford was against that.
 
DSC said:
You need to separate the tax RATE from the tax bill. The 2% Council has just approved is the increase in the tax RATE (the mill rate) NOT the amount an individual property owner will pay. If your property evaluation has gone up by the same % as the average residential property in Toronto your tax will go up by 2% but most people's property evaluations go up (or down) by more (or less) than the average.
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Nope. 2% represents the increase in the target for revenue raised through property taxes. City council first determines how much money they wish to raise through property taxes. This is then used to calculate the mil rate. Hence how even though we have had tax increases pretty much every year, the mill rate has continued to decrease every year.
 
DSC said:
You need to separate the tax RATE from the tax bill. The 2% Council has just approved is the increase in the tax RATE (the mill rate) NOT the amount an individual property owner will pay. If your property evaluation has gone up by the same % as the average residential property in Toronto your tax will go up by 2% but most people's property evaluations go up (or down) by more (or less) than the average.
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Of course you need to separate the tax RATE from the tax BILL. You do not do so properly. Here's a decent Star synopsis of what's happened:

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/cit...-toronto-budget-calls-for-2-per-cent-tax-hike

So, the residential tax RATE, i.e. the residential mill rate, is actually going down, as Nfitz points out. However, the assessed value of residential properties for 2012 has gone up by more than 2% in aggregate, so the amount of extra property tax revenue Toronto homeowners will pay will be 2% above 2012.

Nfitz and I understand how the system works. We're speculating about which quartile of home owners will be hit hardest by the correct statement you make in your last line. Given an average price for a dwelling in Toronto of $474k as per the Star, I believe 'entry-level' detached is above that mean, and the prices there have risen much more than for smaller condos. I've seen houses that went for $500k a couple of years ago go for $750k -- much more than the average rise in value. Therefore, I think that is the group that will pay more than the average 2% rate hike, and maybe substantially more as the evaluators get hold of their new purchase price.

However, if the top end stagnated, it's possible ALL the new more-than-two-percent valuations come in this quartile, meaning both the lower end condos and the Forest Hill mansions hose the guys in-between.
 
Hahaha, one big happy family;)

Onehappyfamily_zps8397cbe1.jpg


Mayor Rob Ford and council enemy Adam Vaughan spotted dining together in Little Italy
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/cit...ughan-spotted-dining-together-in-little-italy
 
Riverdale Rink Rat said:
So, the residential tax RATE, i.e. the residential mill rate, is actually going down, as Nfitz points out. However, the assessed value of residential properties for 2012 has gone up by more than 2% in aggregate, so the amount of extra property tax revenue Toronto homeowners will pay will be 2% above 2012.
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That's not quite how it works. As I understand it, there is a 2% budgetary increase in total residential taxes. But on top of that there is the effect of the commercial-to-residential shift, which boosts the average increase to 2.5%.

Total assessment growth was 24%, phased in over 4 years. So the mill rate goes down about 3.5% (2.5%-6%). Your property tax increase is less than average if your assessment rose less than 24% since 2008.

But to get an actual tax decrease this year, your assessment would have to be rising less than 14% (the 3.5% mill rate decrease, times 4 years of phase-in).
 
k10ery said:
That's not quite how it works. As I understand it, there is a 2% budgetary increase in total residential taxes. But on top of that there is the effect of the commercial-to-residential shift, which boosts the average increase to 2.5%.

Total assessment growth was 24%, phased in over 4 years. So the mill rate goes down about 3.5% (2.5%-6%). Your property tax increase is less than average if your assessment rose less than 24% since 2008.

But to get an actual tax decrease this year, your assessment would have to be rising less than 14% (the 3.5% mill rate decrease, times 4 years of phase-in).
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The commercial-to-residential shift is because in the 905 the commercial rate is lower than the 416 commercial rate. They are trying to even it out a bit, to entice more commercial buildings.
 
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