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The Urban Jungle
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Rob Ford - Why the Supervillian?

Fresh Start said:
Strange, I'd characterize myself as being the Howard Stern of Toronto urban issues.

Simon, perhaps citing affluent Oakville (and for that matter Vaughan) was a bad example, but go check out REALTOR.ca and cross-referrence the GTA in general to Toronto. These are house listings up on their site as of this posting:
Click to expand...

You can find both cheap and expensive homes in every city in the GTA, but in terms of average house price the suburban cities aren't any cheaper than Toronto.

It is very true that you get more house for your money the further out you go. It would be interesting to see the average price per square foot. I'm sure Toronto would be at the top of that list, but that doesn't mean the 905 is more affordable, only that one aspect of real estate (lot size) is cheaper. When looking for a home people value many things other than lot size. It is afterall a cliche that what matters in real estate is location, location, location.

A Ford supporter like yourself should trust in the free market. All the prices are set by supply and demand. If in Toronto $400,000 gets you 2000 square feet and in Brampton it gets you 4000 square feet, that means that buyers value proximity to work and culture, better transit, and older neighbourhoods enough to pay twice as much per square foot.
 
SimonP said:
You can find both cheap and expensive homes in every city in the GTA, but in terms of average house price the suburban cities aren't any cheaper than Toronto.

It is very true that you get more house for your money the further out you go. It would be interesting to see the average price per square foot. I'm sure Toronto would be at the top of that list, but that doesn't mean the 905 is more affordable, only that one aspect of real estate (lot size) is cheaper. When looking for a home people value many things other than lot size. It is afterall a cliche that what matters in real estate is location, location, location.

A Ford supporter like yourself should trust in the free market. All the prices are set by supply and demand. If in Toronto $400,000 gets you 2000 square feet and in Brampton it gets you 4000 square feet, that means that buyers value proximity to work and culture, better transit, and older neighbourhoods enough to pay twice as much per square foot.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with what you're saying, I was just countering nfitz's point about property taxes being that much higher in the 905 area by contrast to in the city when I find them to be pretty neutral. The key thing people are missing here is home affordability - one might be able to mortgage out a bungalow or condo in Toronto now, but is their lifestyle sustainable? How long til they're forced to lease it out or worse foreclosure? Some people are prone to sacrifice living in Toronto and just commute for work if the cost of living in general in the suburbs is more managable. Like you said, people value many things other than lot size.
 
I certainly didn't. I have to say, anyone who have the gall to say that has absolutely no qualms about chest-beating of the worst kind whatsoever. Just like this whole thing about being the sole possessor of the one and only truth.

Oh, and look what I've found, from Kenneth Johnson's book Busting Bureaucracy - excerpt from the chapter "Effects of Bureaucracy on Customers and Employees"
http://www.busting-bureaucracy.com/excerpts/effects.html

• Mistakes and failures are denied, covered up or ignored.
• Responsibility for mistakes and failure tends to be denied, and where possible, blame is shifted to others.
Click to expand...

Clearly, these effects are not restricted to public organizations and their workers.

AoD
 
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Outspoken councillor Rob Ford ahead in race for Toronto mayor: poll

From the Globe and Mail:

Anna Mehler Paperny

Outspoken councillor Rob Ford leads a new poll that evinces a splintered electoral race with two clear front-runners and an indecisive electorate.

A new Globeandmail/CTV/CP24/Nanos poll puts Mr. Ford in first place – but just barely, and well within the margin of error.

The poll shows that 17.8 per cent of 1,000 Torontonians said they would vote for Mr. Ford if the election was held immediately, giving him a tiny lead over former deputy premier and energy and infrastructure minister George Smitherman, with 15.9 per cent.

Almost 40 per cent of those would-be voters are still undecided – but this poll cements a two-horse race between Mr. Ford and Mr. Smitherman, a long-time front-runner after he left his provincial post to run.

Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone garnered a 10.1 per cent result; 9 per cent of those polled said they’d vote for Rocco Rossi if the vote were held immediately. Councillor Giorgio Mammoliti got 2.5 per cent; Women’s Post publisher Sarah Thomson earned 5.8 per cent of votes.

The telephone poll of 1,000 randomly selected Torontonians, all of whom said they were likely to vote Oct. 25, was conducted between June 7 and 11 and is accurate within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Mr. Ford made his candidacy official in late March, months after most of his rivals said they were running. He has already had to do his share of damage control, notably when he was challenged on remarks made in 2006 in opposition to the city’s funding for people living with HIV/AIDS.

But in a campaign without an incumbent, Mr. Ford appears to have tapped into the concerns of a financially anxious electorate on the heels of the deepest recession in decades.

“It’s only a poll,†Mr. Ford said late Sunday afternoon, but “our message is resonating with people. People are sick and tired of spending down at City Hall. And when I’m mayor, I’m going to get control of the spending. That’s the first and foremost priority.â€

“This is my platform,†he said. “I’m going to get elected on this platform and … if councillors are going to go against what the people want them to do, they’re going to have to answer to them.â€

“While this poll has been rumoured for weeks, it's a wake up call,†said Stefan Baranski, spokesman for George Smitherman’s campaign.

“We believe George Smitherman is the best candidate to lead the City of Toronto. He has the experience, the ideas and the passion to get Toronto working again. It's clear we need to do a better job of sharing his vision with voters, and that is exactly what we will be doing. This is shaping up to be a two-horse race, and with Mr. Ford now as the front-runner, we expect he will face the scrutiny his views and record deserve.â€

Although the poll places Mr. Ford and Mr. Smitherman at the fore, the most significant number is 38.9 – the percentage of the 1,000 people polled who plan on voting but have no idea which candidate they would choose.

That level of indecision isn't unusual this early in a municipal race, said pollster Nik Nanos. But it means the campaign is still anyone's to win, or lose.

“Second choice is important,†pollster Nik Nanos said, “when candidates start making mistakes.â€
Click to expand...

There's a bit of chill in the air.

classpath_hell.jpg
 
That's an interesting poll. Compared to The Star's last poll, it has Ford and Smitehrman down substantially (more than 10 points), Pantalone up, Thomson way down, and Rossi way down, and Mammoliti still getting nothing.

The only thing that really scares me about numbers like these is the possibility a candidate could win with ~20% of the vote.
 
Some people are prone to sacrifice living in Toronto and just commute for work if the cost of living in general in the suburbs is more managable.
Click to expand...

Statements like this continue to amuse me. The choice is not about managable ( a code word for affordable I guess ) the choice is about choosing not to live in "Toronto" because they don't want to, no sacrifice involved at all. Those who choose to live in the city are exercising a choice as am I, there is no right or wrong, just a choice. Not everyone has to commute downtown.
 
GraphicMatt said:
That's an interesting poll. Compared to The Star's last poll, it has Ford and Smitehrman down substantially (more than 10 points), Pantalone up, Thomson way down, and Rossi way down, and Mammoliti still getting nothing.

The only thing that really scares me about numbers like these is the possibility a candidate could win with ~20% of the vote.
Click to expand...

So I was wrong about this - the Environics poll in May reported percentages with undecided voters removed. Adjusted for that, the new polls show the following gains/losses (approx): Smitherman (-8), Ford (+2), Thomson (-4), Rossi (+1), Pantalone (+7), Mammoliti (Even)
 
I continue to think the Environics poll is a bit sketchy, another comparison is the Star poll from a month ago:

From that we get:
Ford +2
Smitherman -8
Pantalone +3
Rossi -1
Thomson +3
Mamolitti +0

The big story is that Smitherman continues to hemorrhage votes. Not a shock after his transit policy was so badly received, and it's also following the Barbara Hall pattern. Can he recover? It will be very hard. Torontonians obviously aren't buying what he's selling. It's difficult to think of what he can do to turn things around.

I optimistically think that by October the 70% of Toronto voters opposed to Ford will have rallied around one of the remaining candidates. The big question is who it will be. I don't think Rossi has much hope, has been dead in the water for awhile now despite a lot of advertising. Progressives won't rally to him and he's already lost the bags, bottles, and bicycles crowd to Ford. As a Joe supporter, and someone who's been helping out on his campaign, I might be biased, but I do think he is well positioned to grow. He has the progressives and Dippers as a solid base and centrists might not have much of a choice but to vote for him if they don't want Mayor Ford. Thomson is the big unknown. She has a platform and style that is appealing, but the thin resume and gaffe filled campaign might be impossible to overcome.
 
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Fresh Start said:
Why “nutters� Why not conscientious citizens who’ve felt powerless for years but only now with the opportunity to elect in a regime change can air out grievances and expect political response after a drought of inaction?
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Sure ... but it also brings out the nutters. Go through the OTHER mayoral candidates. I think some are actually certifiable. I'm not exaggerating here.

Fresh Start said:
And why are you trying to deceive us? It does cost more to live in Toronto: http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/407339. Punch in the average cost a house in the GTA ($300,000), then punch in the average for Toronto (which the City puts at $407,000). One’s home in the GTA costing over $100k less than one bought within the 416’s borders will fetch around the same property tax bill annually:

Mississauga
Enter assessment (what your home is worth):
$ 300,000 × City tax rate =
(no comma)
2007 taxes: $2215.56
2008 taxes: $2307.52
This is an increase of $91.95, or %4.15

Brampton
Enter assessment (what your home is worth):
$ 300,000 × City tax rate =
(no comma)
2007 taxes: $2794.26
2008 taxes: $2943.80
This is an increase of $149.54, or %5.35

Oakville
Enter assessment (what your home is worth):
$ 300,000 × City tax rate =
(no comma)
2007 taxes: $2230.01
2008 taxes: $2318.01
This is an increase of $88.00, or %3.95

Toronto
Enter assessment (what your home is worth):
$ 400,000 × City tax rate =
(no comma)
2007 taxes: $2355.37
2008 taxes: $2443.70
This is an increase of $88.33, or %3.75
Click to expand...
Umm ... didn't you just demonstrate that Toronto's tax increase is the lowest? Even using your average house values, which as pointed out by others are not correct? And I'm really not seeing much difference in total taxes ... the 2008 average of the 4 cities you listed (averaging your number) is $2,503; Toronto is then below the average.

I note you managed to avoid all the particularily high cities, such as Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Georgina, or Oshawa ... where the 2008 tax on a $300,000 house is $4,535. Though to be fair, the average house price in Oshawa is closer to $220,000 in 2008 ... but even a $200,000 house pays $3,023 in tax!

While Toronto is not necessarily the cheapest city (though is certainly close), it is very far from the highest taxed city, and (for residents at least) is far below average and a lot closer to the low-end than the high-end!

Fresh Start said:
I’m beginning to suspect that you are a plutocrat
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ROTFLMAO ... no ... one person, one vote. I'd expand the current voting restrictions to let all Torontonians vote actually!

What I'm really against are people who come here, and present things that are just false. Be it the myth of high Toronto crime rates, high Toronto taxation rates, or whatever myth they are pedalling, for whatever bizarre reason.
 
SimonP said:
I continue to think the Environics poll is a bit sketchy, another comparison is the Star poll from a month ago:

From that we get:
Ford +2
Smitherman -8
Pantalone +3
Rossi -1
Thomson +3
Mamolitti +0
Click to expand...

And with that in mind, Ford has yet to crest the 30% mark in decided voters, i.e. the plateau I've observed before is still holding, more or less.

I'm wondering about the high-heeled Forest Hill/Rosedale class--even if they're "conservative", they're not exactly Ford conservative, and with Rossi thus far underwhelming, they must be particularly torn re whom to support...
 
Fresh Start said:
Nah, I think I'll stick with just being myself thank you. My handle's Fresh Start because I actively encourage people to see things from a fresh, new perspective and to reevaluable how the system's being run, whether it's working for them and how to correct it. There will always be those who'll try to silence the truth-seekers in the society because they don't want to be awoken from their false consciousnesses. I don't mean to offend but rather to encourage healthy topical debate. At times I purposefully post errors but that's just to gauge how attentive my audience is.
Click to expand...

Fresh Start: if your kind of "fresh, new perspective" is on behalf of those McMansion types who're frustrated at having to deal with tree bylaws, heritage bylaws, etc, may I ask...what are you doing in Urban Toronto in the first place? It's almost like dealing with Kirby Inwood within a feminist/gender studies forum...
 
Fresh Start said:
Nah, I think I'll stick with just being myself thank you. My handle's Fresh Start because I actively encourage people to see things from a fresh, new perspective and to reevaluable how the system's being run, whether it's working for them and how to correct it. There will always be those who'll try to silence the truth-seekers in the society because they don't want to be awoken from their false consciousnesses. I don't mean to offend but rather to encourage healthy topical debate. At times I purposefully post errors but that's just to gauge how attentive my audience is.
Click to expand...

What's so fresh and new about a conservative perspective?

Anyway, the presumption that is written into your statement is one in which everyone who does not see things your way is somehow wrong, and must be convinced to see what you view as the truth - or at least some supposed search for it (not that you've bothered to actually state any of the truths you claim to seek). Your political opinions are not truths. Furthermore, the insinuation that anyone debating your positions is aiming to silence you suggests that you have a fundamental distrust of the process of democracy and the free exchange of ideas and opinions - regardless of your otherwise weak defence of "healthy" debate.

As for your claim that you purposefully post errors, that just shows the depth if intellectual dishonesty that some people are willing to stoop to. Let's face it, you make mistakes. To hide behind some silly claim that you do so in order to gauge the how attentive your audience is comes off as nothing more than monumentally arrogant.
 
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