Roads: Keep the Gardiner, fix it, or get rid of it? (2005-2014)

[TheTigerMaster]

Now more then ever if I could get 8 billion in a sale I would sell. 8 billion = DRL.

I seriously doubt that we will ever sell the Gardiner, or any other major piece of infrastructure because of the political climate. Torontonians have proven to be fairly averse to selling municipal infrastructure in the past.

The most likely way I see the city raising money for the DRL via the Gardiner Expressway would be to tear it down (which would be pretty damn expensive) and use the eventual savings to pay for the construction of the DRL.

Or we could just sell the thing, which would be the quickest way. But as I mentioned above, this is highly unlikely to happen in a city like Toronto.

Or if Council had sense, they would bring back that tiny Vehicle Registation Tax and raise taxes a little to build more rapid transit, including the DRL. Toronto already pays the lowest property tax in the GTA.

 

[sixrings]

I seriously doubt that we will ever sell the Gardiner, or any other major piece of infrastructure because of the political climate. Torontonians have proven to be fairly averse to selling municipal infrastructure in the past.

The most likely way I see the city raising money for the DRL via the Gardiner Expressway would be to tear it down (which would be pretty damn expensive) and use the eventual savings to pay for the construction of the DRL.

Or we could just sell the thing, which would be the quickest way. But as I mentioned above, this is highly unlikely to happen in a city like Toronto.

Or if Council had sense, they would bring back that tiny Vehicle Registation Tax and raise taxes a little to build more rapid transit, including the DRL. Toronto already pays the lowest property tax in the GTA.

If the numbers show that the yonge line is going to be crushed and a DRL is NEEDED then they are going to have to find the money somewhere. The VRT is not going to do it alone. Maybe they could rip it down and then toll it but the savings of not repairing it every year is not going to equal anything close to what it will cost to get the DRL built.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If the numbers show that the yonge line is going to be crushed and a DRL is NEEDED then they are going to have to find the money somewhere. The VRT is not going to do it alone. Maybe they could rip it down and then toll it but the savings of not repairing it every year is not going to equal anything close to what it will cost to get the DRL built.

Hence why I suggested increasing taxes.

As a side note, it is sad that the Gardiner is getting so much attention. The DRL is as urgent, if not more urgent than the Gardiner situation. Council would be working to create a plan fund both projects within the next year if they had any sense. Of course the DRL will likely be pushed aside yet again, this time by the Gardiner.

 

[sixrings]

my guess is if it was either TAX everyone or sell the Gardiner then this road is as good as gone.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

my guess is if it was either TAX everyone or sell the Gardiner then this road is as good as gone.

This is what I love about Toronto. The city is too liberal to sell to private sector but too conservative to taise taxes beyond any meaningful amount. So nothing gets done.

At the end of the day I see three possibilities:
1. Gardiner torn down
2. Taxes raised to maintain (unlikely)
3. Sold to private sector (also unlikely)

But if it came down to maintaing the Gardiner, raising taxes would easily win over selling it in council.

 

[Dan416]

Why are they only looking at the peak numbers? Why not look at the numbers on a daily basis for all modes, and all reasons, not just work.

 

[sixrings]

I would agree with you if the selling price was 1 or 2 billion.... but at 8 billion I cant see how there can be much opposition... Its a dollar for dollar trade for a DRL...

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I would agree with you if the selling price was 1 or 2 billion.... but at 8 billion I cant see how there can be much opposition... Its a dollar for dollar trade for a DRL...

I can't think of any time Torontonians supported the idea of selling to the private sector on something anywhere close to the scale of this. The idea is usually met with enormous opposition by everyone in the city but people on the far Right. Historically we have favoured raising taxes to generate funds.

We also have to consider that the private sector would likely apply huge tolls, especially since there isn't rapid transit in place to compete. And this is a one time payment. Taxes provide constant source of income to the city.

I really don't see how selling the Gardiner would be better than raising taxes, especially since people in Toronto are overwhelmingly in favour of raising taxes for transportation (75% of people support).

 

[rbt]

Why are they only looking at the peak numbers? Why not look at the numbers on a daily basis for all modes, and all reasons, not just work.

90% of the cost goes into building and maintaining it for peak capacity. This is true for most infrastructure (most obvious is electrical where you literally build power plants that are necessary for 40 hours per year; the 4 really hot days).

That lanes, trains, sidewalks, etc. are empty at 3am doesn't reduce their budget footprint very much.

This is the main reason that spreading the load works so well. Taking 10% off peak and putting it onto the margins can make a huge difference in cost despite carrying the same total volume.

 

[TOareaFan]

Where did this $8B figure come from? And the 50 year lease? Remember, in an open market bidding process, the 407 sold for just over $3B on a 99 year lease with virtually no controls on toll rates. $8B for a shorter road on a 50 year lease with likely toll limits (that is what most people complain about with regards to the 407 sale) is not likely.

There is a third option in addition to a sale or raise taxes and that is road tolls collected by the government. Set them at a number that raises twice the amount of the Gardiner repair/maintenance annual amount. Half goes to the road and half to regional transit improvements (or a formula like that).

 

[sixrings]

the 8 billion figure is a Adam Vaughan figure. I think its under a 99 year lease... I also don't think there were any stipulations on toll rates.
highway 407 was leased in 1999. So what is 3 billion 1999 $s in 2013? Maybe its comparable. I don't know. Maybe they figure the monopoly of owning the only major road into and out of Toronto is worth a premium.

 

[TOareaFan]

the 8 billion figure is a Adam Vaughan figure. I think its under a 99 year lease... I also don't think there were any stipulations on toll rates.
highway 407 was leased in 1999. So what is 3 billion 1999 $s in 2013? Maybe its comparable. I don't know. Maybe they figure the monopoly of owning the only major road into and out of Toronto is worth a premium.

I don't think the value of these projects is subject to inflation (the cost to build them is). The value would be determined by discounting the projected net annual cashflows by a target rate of return. It is true we live in a lower interest rate world but the Impact of that is not likely to make the shorter Gardiner (with less trips) worth more than twice what 407 was worth.

 

[ssiguy2]

The sad thing is that Toronto is already building the entire eastern section of a DRL but at $30 a trip, no one can afford to take it.

Again, sell it for a cheap price and the private company can charge whatever the hell they like with the proviso that the eastern section from Yonge to the DVP is torn down and completely cleaned up. Instead of a cash drain they will actually see a cash cow by allowing devlopment along the torn down section and getting the property taxes from it. It would also greatly enhance the Waterfront and it's accessibility.

Use the funds from the sale to electrify the UP Link and make it part of the standard Metro system. By having stops near Humber they could cancel that section of TC {as they would have regular TTC fare Metro service} and use that $900 million to extend it using the current rail corridor to Pape and then tunnel to Danforth. Problem solved.

 

[LNahid2000]

The sad thing is that Toronto is already building the entire eastern section of a DRL but at $30 a trip, no one can afford to take it.

You mean western section?

 

[Glen]

Glad to notice I am not the only one looking at those numbers and shaking my head. It would seem to be a study that selected a portion of the people going into the downtown each day and used that selection to say "see, its not that important a road". Yet the anecdotal evidence is that it is full of cars all of the time....how come?

They need less 'collective imagination' and more collective wisdom. Noticeably absent is the outbound figures. Outbound flows (AM) are nearly equal to inbound, and growing much faster. Also, the population growth downtown has far exceeded employment growth. Pointing to the additional 38,288 people since 2006 that have moved into the downtown, while missing the point that this has added to the Gardiner's utility, not lessened it, is laughable.