Politics: Tim Hudak's Plan for Ontario if he becomes Premier

[SJD_Toronto]

So will Hudak get shut out in Toronto or will Holyday retain his seat?

Holiday will most likely be re-elected. I'm thinking the Tories could pick up a few Toronto seats like Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North and Scarborough-Rouge River. The Tories will have to really fight for seats in Etobcoke and Scarborough though.

 

[nfitz]

Show us where he has said that he would cancel Eglinton.

Straight from the Ontario PC website:

http://ontariopc.com/files/cities-white-paper.pdf



Burying the Eglinton Crosstown as much as possible. That's not cancelling it.

It's not building it either. There's no commitment in there to actually build it anytime soon. That contract they have to sign soon is $4 billion. He's made the Downtown Relief line the first priority, and also commited to GO Expansion. He's clearly committed $2 billion a year. In the 4-year mandate then, he's got $8 billion to spend. He can't use half of Eglinton, a billion on the Scarborough Extension, and then have the $6.2 billion that the TTC has estimated to build from Dundas West to Pape, build the Scarborough subway extension (current provincial committment is $1.48 billion), and fund GO expansion on $2 billion a year.

I'm not saying that they'd never build Eglinton, nor did they. I'm saying that it's not their priority. Presumably the existing tunnel segments - and perhaps even the entire $497-million would be preserved for a future project.

 

[ehlow]

He has said this on several occasions since early 2012 when he thought the government could fall. Most previously before the election in talking to the Globe and Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...crap-lrts-as-ontario-premier/article15113241/ where he is reported to have pledged that he would "cancel a raft of suburban LRTs in favour of extending Toronto’s subway system." He has had ample opportunity in that 2-year period to say he wouldn't stop Eglinton. He has not done this.

He would definitely cancel Finch & Sheppard, and he clearly wants underground transit, not at-grade, which is what that article says. He could clearly either shorten or modify Eglinton so that there is no at-grade segment. That's not the same as cancelling.

He said that Toronto get's ONE big project. Vaguely like the DRL? An east-west line that connects to the Bloor line (I'm sure he meant Bloor-Danforth ... but I doubt he's ever ridden that far on it ...), south of Bloor, to relieve the Yonge Line. He mentions Pape as a possibility at one end, and leaves the western end open. He says TTC has done preliminary numbers on it. This sounds vaguely like the Downtown Relief Line? This sounds exactly like the Downtown Relief Line. In what way is this vague?

Ha ha.. yes I know. I was making fun of the fact that he said "Scarborough to Etobicoke" and doesn't seem to know much about the DRL.

The Sheppard LRT and Finch West LRT are also already funded. Do you think he'll build that too?

No, I think they will be cancelled. Eglinton on the other hand has a large underground section which is already being built. I believe he would probably keep the underground part.

The Eglinton Line is NOT well underway. It's a $4.5 billion project, and only $0.5 billion has been tendered for the tunnels. The big contract doesn't go out until AFTER the election. And for the $497 million of tunnelling, it's for 3 large segments. The first (west) segment is now being tunneled. They've barely started scratching the surface for the portal of the second segment (east), and the middle segment is untouched. They could likely terminate the existing contracts with penalties, and simply end up with a short piece of tunnel in the west, that could then be preserved for a future project.

Your deluding yourself. Why are you so desperately trying to convince us that he is going to do something, when his own words say the opposite?

"desperately trying to convince us"? Yes I'm so desperate. I'm just trying to understand where you're coming from. You keep saying that he has clearly stated he would cancel Eglinton. I'm trying to figure out where you've read or seen this. The youtube clip you posted doesn't say that. The Globe & Mail article you posted doesn't say he'd cancel Eglinton.

You've stated repeatedly now that it's very clear that Hudak has said he'd cancel Eglinton. I'd like to see that if it's true.

I have given a link to a whitepaper that clearly states he wants Eglinton to be underground as much as possible. That does not sound like he wants to cancel it to me. How is that deluded? I'm giving an exact quote from their party and source:

http://ontariopc.com/files/cities-white-paper.pdf

We support a full, effective subway system for
Scarborough – including the Bloor-Danforth extension,
burying the Eglinton Crosstown as much as possible and
extending the Sheppard subway stump to Scarborough
City Centre.

 

[nfitz]

Holiday will most likely be re-elected. I'm thinking the Tories could pick up a few Toronto seats like Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North and Scarborough-Rouge River.

Holyday barely won in a tight race, in a by-election. By-elections always tilt against the government. That alone puts his seat at risk. Toss in that the Tories actually have a platform now ... and one that is clearly very anti-Toronto, anti-Teacher, and anti-public sector worker ... and I expect the race will be tighter. Given there's literally no change to the candidates from the last election, I'd think some of the Green and NDP voters would shift towards the Liberals as they know their candidate has no hope (though perhaps Ford Nation will be voting Green? . I expect it will be closer than the by-election. Holyday has a good chance ... but I don't think it's a sure thing.

 

[picard102]

What is more important?
LRT's that will add to capacity issues?
Or the DRL that would alleviate current capacity issues and allow more growth via things like LRT's?

I'm not saying they should cancel Eglinton, it's been stunted enough by the Liberals, but if we're being realistic about the province's financial situation, which is needed more?

 

[nfitz]

He would definitely cancel Finch & Sheppard, and he clearly wants underground transit, not at-grade, which is what that article says. He could clearly either shorten or modify Eglinton so that there is no at-grade segment. That's not the same as cancelling.

But Finch and Sheppard are also fully funded, in the exact same agreement that fully funds Eglinton. You can't argue that Eglinton is safe because it's fully funded, if you don't think Finch and Sheppard are.

Ha ha.. yes I know. I was making fun of the fact that he said "Scarborough to Etobicoke" and doesn't seem to know much about the DRL.

Fair enough ... I got the impression he didn't quite know where the Etobicoke and Scarborough borders were ... but wanted to make sure he name dropped them.

No, I think they will be cancelled. Eglinton on the other hand has a large underground section which is already being built. I believe he would probably keep the underground part.

It's being built, but the underground tunnel that is being built, is only about 10% of the cost of the project.

"desperately trying to convince us"? Yes I'm so desperate. I'm just trying to understand where you're coming from.

Fair comment.

You keep saying that he has clearly stated he would cancel Eglinton. I'm trying to figure out where you've read or seen this.

It said he'd cancel ALL the LRT.

I have given a link to a whitepaper that clearly states he wants Eglinton to be underground as much as possible. That does not sound like he wants to cancel it to me. How is that deluded? I'm giving an exact quote from their party and source:

http://ontariopc.com/files/cities-white-paper.pdf

Maybe cancel isn't the best word. Defer ... not build now ... not prioritize.

A white-paper is not an election platform. The white-paper prioritizes the DRL, and then also discusses Eglinton Crosstown and the Scarborough subway. The election platform (today's announcement) says one big project for Toronto, and says that is the DRL. I'll concede that they'd be building the Eglinton line eventually. But certainly not soon.

 

[mpd618]

I'm not saying they should cancel Eglinton, it's been stunted enough by the Liberals, but if we're being realistic about the province's financial situation, which is needed more?

This is a really odd question to be asking, given that the context is a Hudak government which would be spending lots of money on expanding highways in the GTHA. Why should worthy and necessary transit projects be pitted against each other?

 

[Hopkins123]

Holiday will most likely be re-elected. I'm thinking the Tories could pick up a few Toronto seats like Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North and Scarborough-Rouge River. The Tories will have to really fight for seats in Etobcoke and Scarborough though.

The ridings in Toronto the Tories are most competitive in based on the last general election results are:

Don Valley West (Wynne's riding)
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke Centre
Scarborough-Agincourt
Scarborough East-Pickering
Scarborough-Guildwood
York Centre

Scarborough-Rouge River is more of a Liberal vs. NDP battle

 

[King of Kensington]

And yet they got crushed in all of them.

 

[Solid Snake]

But he has made it very clear that he is elected that Eglinton is dead. He has repeatedly over the years said he would cancel the LRT lines.

And he spoke again today. He was crystal clear. He said Toronto get's one big project, and that would be a downtown express line, running east west, south of Bloor, and connecting to the Bloor line. It's pretty clearly the Downtown Relief Line that he'll fund, and not the Eglinton line.

Why do people keep insisting that Hudak is suddenly going to break his promises and drop $4 billion on the Eglinton line, when he has made it very clear that he won't be doing that?

If you don't believe me, go to YouTube, and listen to the very words he said today:

He'll kill Sheppard and Finch to bury Eglinton

 

[Solid Snake]

So will Hudak get shut out in Toronto or will Holyday retain his seat?

Holiday will retain his seat and he will win more seats within the city

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

There was a bunch of Hudak transit plans for Eglinton LRT in the Sheppard thread. I will continue it here.





They cannot defer the entire project because they would lose too much credibility in Toronto. Going from Mount Dennis to Yonge would be a possibility, but a real bad one - because it would make tunnelling the East more difficult with the extraction location no longer being available. Going to Don Mills is a more likely option, but it would require some (very welcome) changes to the West Don/Leslie area.

But I think this announcement today was only for the DRL, which would begin when the budget is balanced. I am not sure exactly what this means, but presumably it would be designed enough that its construction would be imminent and an election issue for 2018.

I think there will have to be another announcement on what will happen with Eglinton - because of the PC history with Eglinton, and the fact that it is causing so much traffic disruption now that it is on peoples minds. I would guess that Hudak will have to propose something a bit different from what is currently happening, just to show that he can do better than the Liberals. (I also think that the Scarborough subway will come up during the campaign).

Eglinton West in particular. I think that they have to built something Eglinton West because they canceled it the first time. Building all of Eglinton underground from the Airport to Kennedy is an easy vote winner in Etobicoke Center.


My question is why would he refer to the Crosstown as a DRL?

 

[rbt]

He'll kill Sheppard and Finch to bury Eglinton

That's awfully optimistic for what you think a majority conservative government would do. If Eglinton did remain as a project, it would almost certainly be deferred until after Hudak's 1st term to a (2025 opening date) and perhaps not even restart construction in a truncated format until the end of his second term (2030 opening). Borrowing limits would force the SRT fix and his own promises to go first; unless you think they would defer their election promises to finish Eglinton?

That said, this election will probably not result in a majority government for any party. They will need to work with another party to get a budget passed.

I can see lots of things the Liberals might demand (preserve green belt or full-day kindergarten; implement 15 minute GO service) but traditionally the opposition almost always votes against the budget regardless of content.

That means Conservatives will require NDP support to get a budget passed. I struggle to find many things the NDP could demand that the Conservatives would agree to particularly with them head-butting over major items like union jobs, subway versus LRT, etc. At the federal level they had a bit of common ground, I don't see that at the provincial level.

Frankly, I think a Conservative minority government would be very short lived and not accomplish much of anything (3% trim from all departments, mostly management?). Unless the NDP get clobbered for forcing this election, Conservatives may not get support for even a single budget; but if NDP does get clobbered (leading to unexpected Liberal votes) then how do the Conservatives take a minority government in the first place?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

He should change Eglinton over to a subway if that's how he feels. He wants to complete Sheppard and the Bloor Danforth Extension.

 

[rbt]

He should change Eglinton over to a subway if that's how he feels.

I don't think so, not with Toronto Rocket or T1 rolling stock and the current tunnel configuration.