PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[kEiThZ]

Before the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates in June, the Liberals were leading in polls and seat counts. You have to understand, interest rates hikes, hurts everyone, including Liberal voters.

I get that this is the new narrative going around among Liberal partisans. But it's a somewhat revisionist one. For one, the LPC's own fiscal policy contributed to the need to raise interest rates substantially. The BoC is still pleading with the government to restrain spending to let them cut rates. Next, the Liberals ramped immigration to record levels and argued for years that it was deflationary (because of wage suppression) until rents and home prices started going to the moon. They eventually admitted immigration is inflationary. So don't blame the Bank of Canada for two massive inflationary levers under the government's control that they have yanked on, to massive inflationary effect.

In any event, given current immigration rates and federal deficit spending, inflation will not be coming down fast enough for the BoC to lower interest rate back to pre-COVID levels, in time for the next election. So the Liberals should be prepared to fight an election where a lot of people are at least renewing into 4% mortgages and car loans are going for 6%.

 

[Northern Light]

The Globe and Mail Editorial Board is out with a takedown of the Federal Liberals on the Immigration file; and its entirely sound and in line with what UT'ers have been reading here for some time.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...tion-is-fraying-the-consensus-on-immigration/ (no paywall at time of posting)

I will extract a couple of key bits.

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Their recommendations are entirely on point:

The complete elimination of off-campus work would be a radical move; and one that's further than I would have advocated for originally; but given the housing crisis, may have become reasonable, if rather punishing to foreign students.

Not mentioned above though, this move will (as it must) collapse foreign student numbers in Canada; that in turn will hit many post-secondary institutions very hard, many of which, in Ontario are already teetering financially. The Ontario government is going to have to step up in a big way; the politics on this one will be interesting as we're talking far in excess of 1B, and possibly as great as 4B in additional supports of that sector within 3 years.

 

[Northern Light]

To add to the (righteous) pile-on from above Canada's big banks out bashing the Feds on immigration as well. (this is a lobby with just a bit of influence, who has enormously benefited from recently policies until the last 12 months.....but I digress)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...lation-trap-needs-to-reduce-immigration-bank/ (this one is behind the paywall)

From the above:

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Amen!

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240,000 net new residents annualized.

 

[Brands]

At what point does the Bank of Canada, start focusing on the economy. Mortgage are up renewals in a couple of years, and that alone will trigger a severe recession, with all the defaults of mortgage loans.
The Bank of Canada's job is not to cause a recession and that is exactly what they are doing.

Again, Inflation and interest rates is not a Canada only problem, it is a global problem. Interest rates are actually higher in the US.

Immigration is a scapegoat for Canada's housing problems. That is not they problem. We need a targeted approach. If we reduced immigration to zero percent in Canada, we are still going to see house prices increase.

Our problems are local. It takes way too long to build homes in Canada period. That is the result of many factors.

We need immigration is Canada to help with our labor shortages and aging population. Statistics Canada said that by 2030, 22.5% percent of Canada's population will be 65 or older. That is a huge percentage of our tax base, that will be gone.

We need to rein in international students and temporary foreign workers in Canada, and crack down on asylum seekers entering Canada by plane. These groups represent over 2 million people entering Canada a year.

Also, I am concerned that the Bank of Canada is hurting the fight against climate change. And with the likely election of Donald Trump south on the border this year, we really to refocus our effort on fighting climate change.

 

[Northern Light]

Immigration is a scapegoat for Canada's housing problems. That is not they problem.

Disagree entirely and suggest you provide evidence and citations in support of what I see as an extreme position that is contrary to the evidence.

Our problems are local. It takes way too long to build homes in Canada period. That is the result of many factors.

There are no more construction workers in key occupations available, notably high-mast crane operators and drywall installers though there are shortages in other trades as well.

Even in a low interest environment there is a finite amount of capital to finance new housing as well.

This issue is not resolvable in any material way w/o vast cuts to the number of new entrants to the country.

This is not about economic-class immigrants for the most part; its primarily about foreign students and temporary foreign workers.

No country in the developed world has tried to sustain these levels of population growth since the Baby Boom; and none through immigration since the early 20th Century.

We need immigration is Canada to help with our labor shortages and aging population. Statistics Canada said that by 2030, 22.5% percent of Canada's population will be 65 or older. That is a huge percentage of our tax base, that will be gone.

Most Scandinavian countries have rightly shifted the retirement age to between 68-72 as is proper.

This addresses a considerable amount of the issue.

It does not fix it entirely as there are professions where people 65+ are not able to continue working in significant numbers. However, largely this move suffices. Life expectancy when the 65 was chosen as the retirement age was early 70s; today its early 80s; the math doesn't work.

To be clear, people in their late 60s in most jobs can continue working, and should. Being retired for 15+ years is simply not reasonable.

We need to rein in international students and temporary foreign workers in Canada, and crack down on asylum seekers entering Canada by plane. These groups represent over 2 million people entering Canada a year.

Exactly, and when people are discussing the immigration problem, they mean the above, for the most part, not the economic-class immigrants under the points system who obtain permanent residence and subsequently citizenship.

 

[kEiThZ]

At what point does the Bank of Canada, start focusing on the economy. Mortgage are up renewals in a couple of years, and that alone will trigger a severe recession, with all the defaults of mortgage loans.
The Bank of Canada's job is not to cause a recession and that is exactly what they are doing.

The Bank of Canada's mandate is to keep inflation at 2%. Even if that means allowing recessions to happen. This is a normal part of the business cycle. The Bank of Canada doen't have any mandates to fight climate change or avoid recessions.

 

[Brands]

When you exclude mortgage interest from the CPI, the inflation rate is 2.4%, right at the Bank of Canada's 1-3% target. The Bank of Canada is the largest source of
inflation in Canada. Why are they putting so many people through this much pain?

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

I have noticed that the “Century Initiative” has been mentioned quite a lot in the past 2-3 weeks with regards to immigration. Other than this group wanting to boost Canada’s population to 100 million do others have any other insight on the group?

A quick Wikipedia search brings up:

co-founded by Mark Wiseman and Dominic Barton, who also led the Advisory Council on Economic Growth under three-term Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.[4][5]The Initiative is supported by former ConservativePrime Minister Brian Mulroney[6] and by influential Liberal Party advisors including advisors to former Minister of Finance Bill Morneau.[7][8] The Century Initiative has been listed on Canada's lobbyist registry since 2021 and has organized meetings with the immigration minister's office, the minister's parliamentary secretary, and Conservative and NDP members of parliament.

Multiple founders and affiliates of the organization have been employed by McKinsey & Company, a multinational consulting firm.[15] Due to this, the Century Initiative has been connected to a scandal over McKinsey consulting expenses by Justin Trudeau's government, in which whistleblowers have highlighted McKinsey's large and growing influence over Canadian immigration policy.[9][22][23][24][25]

Dominic Barton, co-founded Century Initiative when he was the head of McKinsey & Company.[15] Barton also served as the Trudeau government’s ambassador to China from 2019 to 2021, and left the position during the embroiling national security issue.[26]

Aleema Jamal, the inaugural executive director of the foundation, was also previously employed by McKinsey.[15]

In 2016, four of the organization's five volunteers were employed by McKinsey.[15] Also that year, one third of the initiative's manpower was employed or formerly employed by McKinsey & Company.[15]

As of January 2023, the Century Initiative has a current McKinsey executive on its board of executives.[9]

Connections to BlackRock​

The Century Initiative Board of Directors is chaired by co-founder Mark Wiseman, who was the Global Head of Active Equities of BlackRockand ran Blackrock's Alternative Investment division at the time that the Initiative was founded.[27][28] BlackRock owns $35 billion in real estate and thus will benefit from a real-estate bubble.[29]

BlackRock's Alternative Investment division includes the firm's international real estate investment portfolio[30] and is reported to be actively purchasing single family homes.[31] The Century Initiative's other co-founder, Dominic Barton, is married to Geraldine Buckingham, BlackRock's Asia Pacific chief, which has previously generated conflict-of-interest concerns.[32]

I’m surprised this is not making bigger headlines (or maybe there’s an investigative piece happening as we speak) or facing scrutiny that the Liberal’s immigration policies are to essentially to boost real estate.

 

[kEiThZ]

Immigration is a scapegoat for Canada's housing problems.

Hardly. If you take in more people than the homes you're building, shelter costs will go up.

When you exclude mortgage interest from the CPI, the inflation rate is 2.4%, right at the Bank of Canada's 1-3% target. The Bank of Canada is the largest source of
inflation in Canada. Why are they putting so many people through this much pain?

If you exclude enough items, inflation can be made zero. The entire point of the basket that StatsCan and BoC use, is to accurately reflect the cost of living and the inflation of such.

 

[Brands]

The Bank of Canada is the biggest source of inflation. The Interest rate being at 5%, is the biggest reason for inflation. Without it, the inflation rate is 2.4%. Economists also agree.

 

[Richard White]

The Bank of Canada is the biggest source of inflation. The Interest rate being at 5%, is the biggest reason for inflation. Without it, the inflation rate is 2.4%. Economists also agree.

Can you kindly stop trolling this thread?

 

[Brands]

The Bank of Canada’s Inflation Pickle

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from mortgage broker David Larock.

www.movesmartly.com

Last week during her talk at the Economic Club of Canada (thanks to First National for the invite), TD’s Chief Economist Beata Caranci noted that if our CPI shelter costs remain at their current levels (6%+ year-over-year), all of the other prices that comprise our CPI will have to stop increasing altogether in order for our overall CPI to return to the Bank’s 2% target level.

In other words, if the BoC isn’t willing to look past the current price pressure on shelter costs, it will need to eliminate all other inflation.

 

[kEiThZ]

The Bank of Canada’s Inflation Pickle

This week's Canadian mortgage news and tips from mortgage broker David Larock.

www.movesmartly.com

Last week during her talk at the Economic Club of Canada (thanks to First National for the invite), TD’s Chief Economist Beata Caranci noted that if our CPI shelter costs remain at their current levels (6%+ year-over-year), all of the other prices that comprise our CPI will have to stop increasing altogether in order for our overall CPI to return to the Bank’s 2% target level.

In other words, if the BoC isn’t willing to look past the current price pressure on shelter costs, it will need to eliminate all other inflation.

Take that up with the government who gave the Bank of Canada a mandate to keep core inflation at or below 2%. Expecting an institution to ignore their mandated duty is a bit bizarre. The government can change the mandate if they want.

 

[Northern Light]

The Premier of Quebec has written a letter to the PM asking for him to urgently do something about the number of asylum seekers arriving in Quebec, which is apparently overwhelming that province.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/legault-asks-trudeau-to-slow-influx-of-asylum-seekers-1.7087328

The closure of the illegal entry at Roxham Road seems to have been made up for by people arriving at airports and instantly declaring a need for asylum, apparently many from Mexico; with the Premier implying that no-Visa entry for
Mexicans should be reconsidered.

 

[Northern Light]

The move to restrict foreign students seems to be imminent; though its awfully late to implement for the 2024-2025 school year....

The Star has a leaked memo:

Canada to limit study permits for international students: internal memo

It appears the federal government will soon assign a fixed number of international study permits for each province.

www.thestar.com

From the above:

I think the suggested rollback is too timid by at least 1/2.............BUT....

Not noted above, but mentioned in the article is the idea that their will be a province by province quota.

If said quota is even vaguely proportional to population, the cut in numbers will be notably larger in Ontario that what is suggested above. (good)