PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[jje1000]

JWR could do well as part of the Green Party, IMO.

Philpotts would do well as an Independent (don't think other parties are strong enough there outside the Libs and Cons), if she manages to keep her profile up.


Also wonder what comes next in terms of the SNC issue, now that the big moves have been made. I don't think there's any more bombshells to be had- but out of this, I think Trudeau came out as the one most damaged by the allegations (and by his own actions).

 

[steveintoronto]

JWR could do well as part of the Green Party, IMO.

Philpotts would do well as an Independent (don't think other parties are strong enough there outside the Libs and Cons), if she manages to keep her profile up.

And this is where it ties back into my 'UK Independent MPs' example:

What next for the Independent Group? Here’s a winning manifesto
Glen O’Hara

This week’s eruption of the new Independent Group in parliament has been caused in part by the toxic culture that has taken hold within each of the established parties. Bullying, intimidation and racism – covert and overt – have already persuaded 11 MPs to jump ship, probably to be followed by more in due course. But if they are to gain a permanent foothold in British politics, they will need to morph into a more normal party, and establish policies that distinguish them from Labour and the Conservatives. What policies might appeal to both social democrats and liberal conservatives alike? [...]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/21/independent-group-mps-manifesto-change

The specifics are different, the movement the same. This 'group' (not a Party!) is now the fourth most powerful in the UK Parliament, just slightly ahead of the Lib-Dems, with whom they not only share many values and views, but will vote together as a de-facto party.

This can happen in Canada's parliament too. By being a 'movement' or 'group' it allows a dynamic much greater than independents working alone. And indeed, no-one would be more conducive to this than Elizabeth May.

As the Ontario Greens have moved to a very centrist and pragmatic place, and gaining credence, so must the federal Greens. And having like minded people at Centre gives strength in numbers. You don't have to 'toe' a party line, you discuss amongst yourselves as to whether to vote as a bloc or independently.

They don't even have to belong to a "party". There's not enough of them yet to even make that worthwhile as per Official Recognition. Perhaps if a few more join the 'group' the number will be at the level needed for Official status, That bridge is down the road.

No matter how you cut it, JWR and Philpott were in for a hard time inside the caucus anyway. Best they stand in the sunshine of their own making, and reap the honest benefit.

 

[Admiral Beez]

JWR basically wrote the book on how to destroy your political career in less than a year.

Bob Hepburn: The rise and fall of Wilson-Raybould

Ego and deception derailed the once popular and powerful cabinet minister, who entered politics to make major progress on economic and social needs of Indigenous peoples.

www.thestar.com

“In reality, though, Wilson-Raybould’s own ego and her act of deception is as much — or more — to blame for the state she finds herself today.”

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think Trudeau came out as the one most damaged by the allegations (and by his own actions).

I disagree. I predict a solid majority for Trudeau in October.

 

[jje1000]

I disagree. I predict a solid majority for Trudeau in October.

Mmm, I think a solid minority is probable. The little peeves that naturally build up over the course of government seem to have accumulated faster here.

It's all dependent on high the Conservatives can hoist themselves by their own petards though, so I won't rule a majority out.

 

[adma]

When was the last time someone ran as independent and won?

Bill Casey 2008 (former PC MP/subsequent Liberal MP)
Andre Arthur 2006-8 (QC talk show host populist; basically a Conservative proxy)
Chuck Cadman 2004 (CPC nomination-losing Reform/Alliancer)
John Nunziata 1997 (ex-Lib)
Gilles Bernier 1993 (ex-Tory; Mad Max's dad)

 

[steveintoronto]

Mmm, I think a solid minority is probable. The little peeves that naturally build up over the course of government seem to have accumulated faster here.

It's all dependent on high the Conservatives can hoist themselves by their own petards though, so I won't rule a majority out.

It really is a race to the bottom, not the top.

What Beez overlooks so conveniently is that an MP is answerable to their electors, not their Party, or the Party Puppeteers.

Or has the basis of our democracy changed in a Parliamentary representative one?

 

[JGHali]

As an informed Dual, I disagree. It's only by degree, not characteristic. If it was as irrelevant as you claim, then why was Trudeau so afraid to institute the reform of representation he pledged to do?

Electoral reform? Ranked ballots might allow for a few more independents, but that remains to be seen. And PR is all about party politics.

The question isn't if JWR can't be part of a new movement on the West Coast, that's becoming a given, it's whether Philpott can also do so In Toronto?

What new movement? I feel like you’re really overreaching on all this.

As for the UK, Brexit has quite literally stretched the entire system to the breaking point with unprecedented paralysis and dysfunction. Canadian politics is hardly lacking in short lived splinter groups - see the Democratic Representative Caucus from
the Canadian Alliance - but I don’t see either JWR or Philpott as such skilled politicians willing or able to foment a new “independent” movement.

I don’t think anyone comes out of all this looking very good. But I wouldn’t want to work with someone that secretly tapes conversations for later media release. Or someone who shops around a tell-all interview that hints at “much more” to the story. None of this makes Trudeau, PMO, or PCO look any less incompetent, but the idea that there’s some high minded principle at work here seems more like hype and spin than anything else.

 

[PinkLucy]

I disagree. I predict a solid majority for Trudeau in October.

Seat projection polls aren’t saying that, but it will be interesting to watch as this scandal dies down. Will the carbon tax have an impact? Will Justin’s broken electoral reform promise have an impact? I’m predicting a minority, hopefully for Trudeau, even though I am not a fan.

 

[steveintoronto]

Bill Casey 2008 (former PC MP/subsequent Liberal MP)
Andre Arthur 2006-8 (QC talk show host populist; basically a Conservative proxy)
Chuck Cadman 2004 (CPC nomination-losing Reform/Alliancer)
John Nunziata 1997 (ex-Lib)
Gilles Bernier 1993 (ex-Tory; Mad Max's dad)

Lots more too:

Pages in category "Independent MPs in the Canadian House of Commons"
The following 92 pages are in this category, out of 92 total. This list may not reflect recent changes (learn more).

A

• Scott Andrews (politician)
• Bona Arsenault
• André Arthur

B

• André Bellavance
• Gilles Bernier (Quebec politician)
• Jag Bhaduria
• Fabien Boisvert
• Samuel Boulanger
• Henri Bourassa
• John Hampden Burnham

C

• Chuck Cadman
• Arthur Cardin
• Jean-Guy Carignan
• Bill Casey
• Benoît Chabot
• Gérard Chapdelaine
• Gilbert Chartrand
• Tony Clement
• Joe Comuzzi
• Maurice Côté

D

• Dean Del Mastro
• Bev Desjarlais
• Frédéric Dorion

F

• Jean-François Fortin (politician)
• Louis Fortin
• Jean-Louis Frenette

G

• Paul-Edmond Gagnon
• Wilfrid Gariépy
• François Gérin
• John Lambert Gibson
• Fernand Girard
• Charles-Auguste-Maximilien Globensky
• Peter Goldring
• Duncan Graham (Canadian politician)
• Raj Grewal
• Richard Grisé
• Helena Guergis

H

• George Haddow
• Robert Henry Halbert
• Sana Hassainia
• Camillien Houde
• Bruce Hyer

I

• Peter Ittinuar

J

• Alfred Gilpin Jones
• Leonard Jones

K

• Darshan Kang
• Wajid Khan (Canadian politician)
• David Kilgour
• Alex Kindy

L

• Liguori Lacombe
• Lucien Lamoureux
• Edgar Leduc
• James Lunney

M

• John Archibald Maharg
• Guy Marcoux
• Dalton McCarthy
• Leighton McCarthy
• Angus McDonald (politician)
• Thomas Robert McInnes
• George McLeod (New Brunswick politician)
• Peter Mitchell (politician)
• Maria Mourani

N

• Alan Webster Neill
• Pat Nowlan
• John Nunziata

O

• Pat O'Brien (Canadian politician)

P

• Massimo Pacetti
• Jim Pankiw
• Carolyn Parrish
• Manon Perreault
• Samuel Platt
• Raoul Poulin

R

• Jack Ramsay (politician)
• Brent Rathgeber
• James Armstrong Richardson
• Robert Lorne Richardson
• Louis Riel
• Jabel Robinson
• Tony Roman
• Joseph Russell (Canadian politician)
• Sylvester Perry Ryan

S

• Stanley Schumacher
• Joseph Tweed Shaw

T

• Ross Thatcher
• Louise Thibault
• John Jabez Thurston
• Hunter Tootoo
• Robert Toupin
• Garth Turner

V

• Pierrette Venne

W

• Erin Weir
• Blair Wilson

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Independent_MPs_in_the_Canadian_House_of_Commons

I'm actually glad now I was incentivized to look that up.

YES!

 

[Videodrome]

I disagree. I predict a solid majority for Trudeau in October.

Really? Even with all of the drama?

Bill Casey 2008 (former PC MP/subsequent Liberal MP)
Andre Arthur 2006-8 (QC talk show host populist; basically a Conservative proxy)
Chuck Cadman 2004 (CPC nomination-losing Reform/Alliancer)
John Nunziata 1997 (ex-Lib)
Gilles Bernier 1993 (ex-Tory; Mad Max's dad)

So the general theme is disgruntled politicians.

 

[adma]

Lots more too:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Independent_MPs_in_the_Canadian_House_of_Commons

I'm actually glad now I was incentivized to look that up.

YES!

A lot of whom served at some point or another as Independents, but weren't necessarily elected as such. (Note how Tony Clement is on the list)

 

[lenaitch]

"Wilson-Raybold Set Multiple Conditions to End Rift"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-trudeau-philpott-snc-lavalin-1.5083792

If accurate, it would seem that JWR has a different view of her gravitas within the government than others did. The one demand, that the current AG would not overrule the DDP regarding SNC seems particularly bizarre. She seems to want to bind a minister of the Crown. If she felt that it was inappropriate for others to exert influence on her as AG, how would this be appropriate?

 

[steveintoronto]

Watch this closely!

Votes in B.C. and P.E.I. give the Greens two shots at making history
Nanaimo–Ladysmith federal byelection coming not long after provincial election in Canada's smallest province

Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Mar 27, 2019 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: March 27

The stars could be aligning for the Green Party of Canada to catch a lucky break — and just in time for October's federal election.

A federal byelection in the B.C. riding of Nanaimo–Ladysmith gives the Greens a chance to make a pre-election breakthrough. Nanaimo–Ladysmith is one of the party's target ridings and the byelection there could take place just days after a provincial Green Party makes history in the smallest province.

Voters in Nanaimo–Ladysmith will be heading to the polls on May 6 for a byelection — the last opportunity Canadians anywhere will have to cast a federal ballot before the scheduled general election on Oct. 21. It follows the resignation of former NDP MP Sheila Malcolmson, who quit her seat to mount a successful bid for provincial office.

The timing couldn't be better for the Greens. Last night, the P.E.I. government announced the next provincial election will be held April 23.

Normally, a provincial election in P.E.I. wouldn't have any implications for a federal contest at the other end of the country. But the Greens are leading in the polls in P.E.I. If that lead holds, the Greens could form their first government anywhere in Canada.

That's the kind of news that can have a galvanizing effect on supporters elsewhere.

British Columbia remains the province where Elizabeth May's federal Green Party is strongest. The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polls, gives the federal Greens 12.9 per cent support in B.C. — nearly five percentage points higher than where the party stood in the province on election night in 2015. [...]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-greens-bc-pei-1.5071962

Symbiosis resonates...

 

[Admiral Beez]

Seat projection polls aren’t saying that, but it will be interesting to watch as this scandal dies down. Will the carbon tax have an impact? Will Justin’s broken electoral reform promise have an impact? I’m predicting a minority, hopefully for Trudeau, even though I am not a fan.

My thinking is that by October Ontarians may be annoyed of Ford’s conservatism while Trump’s now heightened post-Mueller populism may scare any mushy middlers to the Libs. Lastly the NDP will be erased in Quebec and elsewhere, and no chance Quebecers go for Scheer when Trudeau is standing up for SNC and Quebec jobs.