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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

I am having a discussion about polls and raw voter data with someone on Twitter. One point brought up is that the CPC can run North Korea numbers in rural areas, but that won't help them a bit in winning the GTA and other urban areas. The Liberals have an inherent advantage in doing that, helped by the NDP decline.
 
Videodrome said:
I am having a discussion about polls and raw voter data with someone on Twitter. One point brought up is that the CPC can run North Korea numbers in rural areas, but that won't help them a bit in winning the GTA and other urban areas. The Liberals have an inherent advantage in doing that, helped by the NDP decline.
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The issue is a lot of Liberal voters who voted last time where one time voters.

Most of my young friends voters liberals just for pot lol


So they have the advantage but the issue is the liberals will also face a raw decline in votes in these areas too.
 
BurlOak said:
http://www.criminal-code.ca/criminal-code-of-canada-section-139-2-idem/index.html
warrenkinsella.com

#LavScam latest: did PMO have direct contact with prosecutors in the SNC-Lavalin trial?

Musings
warrenkinsella.com warrenkinsella.com
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On the face of the Section you could be correct, but I think any successful prosecution would be extremely difficult because of the need to establish the various elements of the offence; illegal act + intent. It seems that legal experts are much divided on whether an offence has been committed. A complaint has been made to the RCMP (by CPC?) so we'll see what happens.

I have been involved in these so-called public office integrity investigations and they are extremely difficult. It is no coincidence that politicians and political staffers never commit things to writing. You end up with a he-said-she-said scenario full of vague information that never makes it past the Crown let alone through court. Criminal prosecutions require proof 'beyond a reasonable doubt; civil cases are decided on a 'balance of probabilities; the court of public opinion only requires ' gee it sort of looks like'.

Anyone who is convinced that an offence has been made out solely on what is available on the public record are free to wander down to their local court office and swear out a private complaint.

Edit to Add: The fact that the JWR, the 'victim' so to speak and undoubtedly the prime witness in any potential prosecution, has testified at Committee that she did not feel the actions were illegal would certainly complicate matters. It would be difficult for her to walk that back and retain any credibility.
 
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Thorns_Embrace said:
I am starting to believe that Doug Ford is going to get #metooed before the next election. They way he treated Randy Hillier was shameful and I believe that if they are sensing an electoral defeat they will dump him.
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I think it could very much be a strategy for the PCs- have Ford run around as the wrecking ball to get the politically expensive stuff out of the way, toss him out under a year or so before the next election, replace him with someone like Elliot, and finally load up the budget with goodies. Of course, Ford has to agree on it as well, or else you're going to get a politically expensive civil war.

Jasmine18 said:
The issue is a lot of Liberal voters who voted last time where one time voters.

Most of my young friends voters liberals just for pot lol

So they have the advantage but the issue is the liberals will also face a raw decline in votes in these areas too.
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Definitely so, Trudeau has cultivated a brand as the 'internationally cosmopolitan, right-side-of-history' choice- but I don't think he can rely heavily on that this time around. People are going to naturally be more cynical of what the Liberals have to offer.
 
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I can't imagine Ford agreeing to that. It would be too complicated for his pea brain to understand, and he is loving the power and getting back at Toronto, because that's what it's all about for him.

And yes, Justin has to step up his game. His "sunny ways" aren't looking quite so bright and sunny these days.
 
Interesting, who could be behind it? FYI, Wilson-Raybould's prior choices for Supreme Court Justice was leaked to the media a few days ago.

Federal judicial affairs commissioner says he can't probe Supreme Court appointment leaks
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https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/fed...obe-supreme-court-appointment-leaks-1.4354359


Also interesting is the Chinese Canola ban- IMO a motivated move on the Chinese to hurt Trudeau in places that already has suspicions of him in the Canadian West. Not too much of an impact in the rest of Canada, but this stuff will build up over time.
 
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I suspect that the Chinese decision to ban canola imports from Canada wasn’t motivated by a desire to hurt Trudeau. The Liberals already have little support in AB and SK, and will probably have less in the future without any Chinese actions. If Beijing really wanted to hurt Junior’s re-election chances, they’d have to punish a Quebec company or industry.
 
pman said:
I suspect that the Chinese decision to ban canola imports from Canada wasn’t motivated by a desire to hurt Trudeau. The Liberals already have little support in AB and SK, and will probably have less in the future without any Chinese actions. If Beijing really wanted to hurt Junior’s re-election chances, they’d have to punish a Quebec company or industry.
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Probably not him specifically, but the move looks like it is targeted to increase tensions within the country. Also, always keep in mind China plays the long game - and think what would happen if say Trudeau loses and the next PM is Conservative - whose base would be far, far more sensitive to this.

Quite frankly, I am not sure if there is anything to lose at this point and just sent Meng to the US ASAP. You push, you get the exact opposite reaction as you wish, and you get it right away. If we are going to take a hit, it better be worth it.

AoD
 
narduch said:
Doug Ford may make it harder for Scheer in Ontario though.

I really don't know anyone happy with Ford so far
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Again, people will deny support for conservatism to one's face for fear of a negative reaction. For lack of a better analogy, snowflakes get easily triggered. That doesn't mean that in the anonymity of the ballot box they wouldn't vote for Ford and the PC's or Scheer and the Con's.

According to the most recent Ispsos and Nano polls, Doug's actually helped the federal Conservatives in Ontario where they're now sitting in majority territory with 40%. They're also leading amongst both genders. So much for "peoplekind"!
 
A recent Mainstreet poll, cited earlier in this thread, showed very low approval ratings, although "would vote for" was a higher percentage. Still not great though. And something like 18% in Toronto. Interesting, because Mainstreet tends to skew conservative.

And I don't think Doug has anything to do with federal numbers. Trudeau is doing that all on his own.
 
I think the same Poll showed that Ford still has his base of Support in the 905.

Untill the Libearls are competitive there again, Ford hold on power is secure.
 
PinkLucy said:
I can't imagine Ford agreeing to that. It would be too complicated for his pea brain to understand, and he is loving the power and getting back at Toronto, because that's what it's all about for him.

And yes, Justin has to step up his game. His "sunny ways" aren't looking quite so bright and sunny these days.
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He's looking like a fraud at the moment. Between some high profile female cabinet ministers calling him out and his seeming ineptitude in handling all of this, his brand/image is coming back to haunt him.
 
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pman said:
www.cbc.ca

PM wanted SNC-Lavalin deal 'one way or another,' top bureaucrat told Wilson-Raybould in secretly recorded call | CBC News

The country's top bureaucrat delivered Jody Wilson-Raybould a blunt warning that the prime minister wanted to "get it done" in granting SNC-Lavalin an agreement to avoid criminal prosecution in a recorded telephone conversation released publicly today.
www.cbc.ca www.cbc.ca

Junior’s middle name is apparently Git-er-done. Quebec Inc. of course. Not pipelines.
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Former attorney-general Jody Wilson-Raybould released an audio recording of a conversation with Canada’s top bureaucrat Friday in which she warned that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “was on dangerous ground” by attempting to interfere in the criminal prosecution of SNC-Lavalin.

Ms. Wilson-Raybould recorded a Dec. 19, 2018 conversations with Michael Wernick, Clerk of the Privy Council, in which he told her that Mr. Trudeau was in “that kind of mood” and wanted the prosecution of SNC-Lavalin to be shelved.

“He is in a pretty firm frame of mind about this, so I am a bit worried,” Mr. Wernick tells her. “It is not a good idea for the Prime Minister and the attorney-general to be at loggerheads.”
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Ms. Wilson-Raybould replies that she was trying to protect Mr. Trudeau from charges of political interference especially after the Director of Public Prosecutions, Kathleen Roussel, had decided to go ahead with the fraud and bribery prosecution of SNC-Lavalin.

“We are treading on dangerous ground here – and I am going to issue my stern warning – because I cannot act in a manner and the prosecution cannot act in a manner that is not objective, that isn’t independent” she said. “This is about the integrity of the government…. this is going to look like political interference by the Prime Minister.”
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Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s submission also revealed that former senior aide Gerry Butts tried to use an erroneous story from the Mulroney-era to persuade her office to accept direction from the Prime Minister’s Office on the case.

Copies of text messages between the former minister and her then-chief of staff Jessica Prince recount how Mr. Butts, one of the senior most officials in the PMO, offered up what he represented as historical precedent for a prime minister to direct an attorney-general on a justice matter.
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In recorded call, Wilson-Raybould warns Wernick that Trudeau was 'on dangerous ground’ by attempting to interfere on SNC-Lavalin

Former attorney-general releases audio of a Dec. 19, 2018, conversation with Canada’s top bureaucrat, in which he told her that the Prime Minister wanted her to shelve the prosecution of the Montreal-based engineering and construction giant
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com
The audio: https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/42-1/JUST/related-document/10387710

Ms. Wilson-Raybould has put her cards down, let's see how Trudeau and the Liberals respond. I don't think she nor Philpotts will be part of the Liberal party for long, IMO.


Also interesting in that it counters SNC claims it never wanted to leave Canada:
SNC-Lavalin blasts leak of ‘Plan B’ that warned of U.S. move
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OTTAWA -- SNC-Lavalin (SNC.TO) warned federal prosecutors last fall about a possible plan to split the company in two, move its offices to the United States and eliminate its Canadian workforce if it didn't get a deal to avoid criminal prosecution, newly obtained documents show.

The documents, part of a PowerPoint presentation obtained by The Canadian Press, describe something called "Plan B" -- what Montreal-based SNC might have to do if it can't convince the government to grant a remediation agreement to avoid criminal proceedings in a fraud and corruption case related to projects in Libya.
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https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/snc-lavalin-blasts-leak-of-plan-b-that-warned-of-u-s-move-1.1236436

All of this is stewing into something toxic- even if this was just a tempest in a teacup, the Liberals' missteps (along with Trudeau's response to the Grassy Narrows protester) really are tossing kindling on the pile of misgivings Canadians usually build up towards political parties before voting them out.
 
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