Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

[AlvinofDiaspar]

If people are vaccinated, they shouldn't be back in the ICU. Something's going wrong if ICU availability is decreasing slower than admission grew last month.

People who get into ICU doesn't clear as quickly as they get in. There is absolutely nothing unexpected about this - we have seen it with the December wave where the ICU numbers never really went down before the March wave hit.

AoD

 

[Northern Light]

I'm reading the SSP COVID page of the US. I think that the general attitude there is more laissez-faire, and that Canada is more cautious around these things. I think we could take a hint from them, and move towards less rules (the only time I'll ever say we should move towards the US). So, I agree with you.

Based on the statistics in relation to vaccination; and the fact that I feel many restrictions, particularly as they related to outdoor and/or low-risk activities were excessive to begin with (while other restrictions were too lax)....

I tend to agree.

Though, I'm not sure I would describe it as emulating the U.S. writ large.

Lockdowns once everyone is vaccinated is ridiculous. If everyone's protected, what are lockdowns doing? 2 weeks after my vaccination, I'm calling my lockdown over. At least, with friends who are also vaccinated ...

Indications from preliminary studies show Pfizer and Moderna to be in the ~50% effective range in the first 10 days following 1st dose vaccination.

By day 15, that number rises to 89-91%

Citation: https://www.asbmb.org/asbmb-today/science/040421/how-effective-is-the-first-shot-of-the-pfizer-or-m

If people are vaccinated, they shouldn't be back in the ICU. Something's going wrong if ICU availability is decreasing slower than admission grew last month.

I would agree....

People who get into ICU doesn't clear as quickly as they get in. There is absolutely nothing unexpected about this - we have seen it with the December wave where the ICU numbers never really went down before the March wave hit.

AoD

So the important metric in relation to the behavior of the public would not be the existing number of people in ICU it would be the new ICU admission rate.

Average stay in ICU for a Covid patient is 20.8 days

Citation: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...-four-times-as-much-as-average-cihi-1.5361631

Given current vaccination rates (inclusive of 2 week post-shot effectiveness); I would expect to see material drops in ICU occupancy by mid-week at the latest.

 

[DSC]

Ontario is reporting 1,794 cases of #COVID19 and nearly 34,600 tests completed.

 

[Bayer]

I'm reading the SSP COVID page of the US. I think that the general attitude there is more laissez-faire, and that Canada is more cautious around these things. I think we could take a hint from them, and move towards less rules (the only time I'll ever say we should move towards the US). So, I agree with you.

That general attitude is reflected in the 177 per 100,000 COVID death rate in the U.S. compared to 67 here, according to data published in the New York Times. I would rather be careful for a few more weeks, knowing the alternative is more suffering and death. But the morons demonstrating right now on Bloor St. would disagree with me, I'm sure.

 

[Rufus8]

okay never mind

My apologies. The headline does say January 2020 to February 2021. BUT the 658 deaths only refers to the two month period of January 2021 to February 2021. The full year total is included in the text and is much higher.

therefore your statement of “Stats Canada says the excess death rate from Jan 2020- Feb 2021 was 2.1% (658 more than usual)” Is incorrecok

 

[Rufus8]

what I don't understand is why Toronto, which was the only city affected by SARS (remember?) outside of China, had not established a clear process to handle such a situation arising again. And from the same source! Why did the powers that be fail to realise that SARS could have been worse? Also what is "essential travel" during a pandemic? Madness. I remember last year they complained about cruise ships but how different is a cruise ship from an airplane? Why was there not a more stringent air travel ban as soon as it became clear that it was spreading in winter 2020, when Italy had the first outbreak? Again so many questions. Africa dealt with ebola better than we dealt with covid, what lessons could we learn? I don't expect any answers, just bored as hell with the lockdown.

 

[TheKingEast]

That general attitude is reflected in the 177 per 100,000 COVID death rate in the U.S. compared to 67 here, according to data published in the New York Times. I would rather be careful for a few more weeks, knowing the alternative is more suffering and death. But the morons demonstrating right now on Bloor St. would disagree with me, I'm sure.

We'll never escape lockdown with that mentality and we will continue to ignore the pain that these lockdowns cause. Imagine if the media focussed 100% of their energy to suicides and other deaths caused by unreasonable restrictions?

 

[TheKingEast]

what I don't understand is why Toronto, which was the only city affected by SARS (remember?) outside of China, had not established a clear process to handle such a situation arising again. And from the same source! Why did the powers that be fail to realise that SARS could have been worse? Also what is "essential travel" during a pandemic? Madness. I remember last year they complained about cruise ships but how different is a cruise ship from an airplane? Why was there not a more stringent air travel ban as soon as it became clear that it was spreading in winter 2020, when Italy had the first outbreak? Again so many questions. Africa dealt with ebola better than we dealt with covid, what lessons could we learn? I don't expect any answers, just bored as hell with the lockdown.

Haven't you realized the powers that be are incompetent? This pandemic has shown us that there are some bright minds out here in the political spectrum (ie: New Zealand's prime minister) and some complete idiots (ie: Doug Ford). Thing is a lot of times we don't witness that incompetence until something really bad happens. I have many questions myself but I just chaulk it up to sheer incompetence and people put in positions they are unqualified for.

 

[DSC]

Haven't you realized the powers that be are incompetent? This pandemic has shown us that there are some bright minds out here in the political spectrum (ie: New Zealand's prime minister) and some complete idiots (ie: Doug Ford). Thing is a lot of times we don't witness that incompetence until something really bad happens. I have many questions myself but I just chaulk it up to sheer incompetence and people put in positions they are unqualified for.

Public Health is always hard to get funding for; when it works 'nothing happens' which, to some, means they are unnecessary. Remember in 2019 Ford wanted to merge almost all the public health units, thank god there was enough resistance to stop that. We MAY not need quite as many as we have but local knowledge is vital.

 

[Quint]

what I don't understand is why Toronto, which was the only city affected by SARS (remember?) outside of China, had not established a clear process to handle such a situation arising again. And from the same source! Why did the powers that be fail to realise that SARS could have been worse? Also what is "essential travel" during a pandemic? Madness. I remember last year they complained about cruise ships but how different is a cruise ship from an airplane? Why was there not a more stringent air travel ban as soon as it became clear that it was spreading in winter 2020, when Italy had the first outbreak? Again so many questions. Africa dealt with ebola better than we dealt with covid, what lessons could we learn? I don't expect any answers, just bored as hell with the lockdown.

This is what makes me so mad! Of all the places outside of Asia Toronto should have been the best prepared for dealing with Covid-19 but our useless officials totally failed to learn any lessons from SARS. If people recall, patient zero, who had recently just returned from Hong Kong was examined at Scarborough general with symptoms of SARS. The hospital sent him directly home despite the fact the emergence of a mystery respiratory disease in Asia was already known. He would go on to infect other family members who would also die. Much the same thing happened with Covid-19.

Vietnam was another place hard hit by SARS but they learned their lessons! To date in all of Vietnam a country of over 100 million people there have been only 39 deaths from the outset of the Pandemic. In Ontario we have that many in one day!.

In January 2020 when they got a hint of the growing pandemic in China, Vietnam closed all its borders with China and curtailed almost all airline traffic. For those flights that were allowed in, passengers were tested as soon as they stepped on the tarmac (not even allowed inside the terminal!). Positive cases were sent to special hospitals that ONLY had Covid-19 patients. Those passengers who tested negative were bused to government quarantine facilities where they had to stay for 14 days (for free!). For those with money they could opt for more luxurious quarantine accommodations at a resort in Da Nang of course all facilities heavily guarded by the military.

Vietnam went almost a year before recording it's first Covid-19 death! During that time the most critical patient was a British expat pilot for Vietnam Airlines. Vietnam was so determined to avoid any deaths that they put this pilot on a heart lung bypass machine and after a few months he recovered and was able to fly home to Britain.

Throughout all of this Vietnam was only shut down for about 3 weeks in the spring of 2020 during which time restaurant and bar owners used the down time to renovate their businesses. Since last Summer all businesses have been fully open in Vietnam (bars and restaurants with no restrictions) and life goes on pretty much as normal with the exception that the country is still closed off to tourists.

And one final thing! Less than 1% of Vietnam has received any vaccinations to date. They accomplished the most amazing record of any other nation dealing with Covid-19 without resorting to mass vaccination! programs.

 

[Rufus8]

Public Health is always hard to get funding for; when it works 'nothing happens' which, to some, means they are unnecessary. Remember in 2019 Ford wanted to merge almost all the public health units, thank god there was enough resistance to stop that. We MAY not need quite as many as we have but local knowledge is vital.

Yesterday as I was racking my brain for memories of SARS it all came flooding back to me - Dalton McGuinty, the Gas Plants, Mike Harris' welfare reform - we really are stupid voters! The British say you get the government you deserve. As for Ford he is just a figurehead I don't think he makes any decisions himself, he's told what to do and say. Still don't know how he became leader.

 

[Jonny5]

This is what makes me so mad! Of all the places outside of Asia Toronto should have been the best prepared for dealing with Covid-19 but our useless officials totally failed to learn any lessons from SARS. If people recall, patient zero, who had recently just returned from Hong Kong was examined at Scarborough general with symptoms of SARS. The hospital sent him directly home despite the fact the emergence of a mystery respiratory disease in Asia was already known. He would go on to infect other family members who would also die. Much the same thing happened with Covid-19.

Vietnam was another place hard hit by SARS but they learned their lessons! To date in all of Vietnam a country of over 100 million people there have been only 39 deaths from the outset of the Pandemic. In Ontario we have that many in one day!.

In January 2020 when they got a hint of the growing pandemic in China, Vietnam closed all its borders with China and curtailed almost all airline traffic. For those flights that were allowed in, passengers were tested as soon as they stepped on the tarmac (not even allowed inside the terminal!). Positive cases were sent to special hospitals that ONLY had Covid-19 patients. Those passengers who tested negative were bused to government quarantine facilities where they had to stay for 14 days (for free!). For those with money they could opt for more luxurious quarantine accommodations at a resort in Da Nang of course all facilities heavily guarded by the military.

Vietnam went almost a year before recording it's first Covid-19 death! During that time the most critical patient was a British expat pilot for Vietnam Airlines. Vietnam was so determined to avoid any deaths that they put this pilot on a heart lung bypass machine and after a few months he recovered and was able to fly home to Britain.

Throughout all of this Vietnam was only shut down for about 3 weeks in the spring of 2020 during which time restaurant and bar owners used the down time to renovate their businesses. Since last Summer all businesses have been fully open in Vietnam (bars and restaurants with no restrictions) and life goes on pretty much as normal with the exception that the country is still closed off to tourists.

And one final thing! Less than 1% of Vietnam has received any vaccinations to date. They accomplished the most amazing record of any other nation dealing with Covid-19 without resorting to mass vaccination! programs.

Beware of talking about how wonderful any particular country has done with COVID. There were several commenters here crowing about how India was embarrassing Canada only four months ago. I haven't seen them around much lately.

Organic growth does not happen in a perfect simultaneous linear progression everywhere. It never has. That should be one of the key lessons learned, but it appears no country anywhere learned that basic one taught in middle school science. To quote a silly movie, "Life... finds a way." Viruses are a bona fide life form. Indeed, in many cases, the longer you go without the virus sweeping your country the more certain you are to have a horrific result as the virus has already retooled itself into a much better killing machine to your unexposed population. Is Vietnam ready to have its borders sealed for the next ten years? China too, for that matter?
Closing borders to Canada from all travel was simply not even remotely possible and we've done extraordinarily well considering that we couldn't and didn't.

 

[Richard White]

Closing borders to Canada from all travel was simply not even remotely possible and we've done extraordinarily well considering that we couldn't and didn't.

It was possible. Australia did it and so did we on 9/11 (operation yellow ribbon).

All they would have needed to do is close the border crossings, ports and shut down all airports for anything but military or humanitarian flights.

Trudeau didn't close the borders because in their mind you can't prevent Canadians from returning home.

It has been done during times of global emergency in the past. It could have been done now.

By shutting down Canadian airspace, curtailing VIA rail and closing the borders we could have limited spread and the entry of new cases into Canada.

The post-mortem on Covid-19 in Canada will likely bring substantial change and topple a few governments.

 

[Jonny5]

It was possible. Australia did it and so did we on 9/11 (operation yellow ribbon).

All they would have needed to do is close the border crossings, ports and shut down all airports for anything but military or humanitarian flights.

Trudeau didn't close the borders because in their mind you can't prevent Canadians from returning home.

It has been done during times of global emergency in the past. It could have been done now.

By shutting down Canadian airspace, curtailing VIA rail and closing the borders we could have limited spread and the entry of new cases into Canada.

The post-mortem on Covid-19 in Canada will likely bring substantial change and topple a few governments.

"All they would have needed to do is close the border crossings, ports and shut down all airports for anything but military or humanitarian flights."

You and I live in very different Canadas.

 

[Richard White]

"All they would have needed to do is close the border crossings, ports and shut down all airports for anything but military or humanitarian flights."

You and I live in very different Canadas.

Like I said they have done it before and it can be done again.

They just didn't want to.