Next Mayor of Toronto?

[Northern Magus]

The Globe (can't remember which article) also theorized that Smitherman and Tory may battle for the centre-right vote, leaving someone to come up through the centre-left. Of course, you have to take in account that the market for a centre-right mayor is probably a lot bigger.

He's young, but he's an over achiever. I think he'd make a very competent mayor and carry Miller's torch..... I think while Tory and Smitherman are fighting it out and destroying eachother with negative ads, Giambrone can come up the middle and be the David Miller of 2010, the underdog who beat out the giants.

First, let me be clear: most journos haven't the slightest idea about how to win elections. They tend to like parsing things into neat, tidy "left v right" labels. They shouldn't be relied on too much for guidance.

Municipal elections, with turnouts around 30%, are not about left v right or pitching for a "mushy middle". They're predominantly issues based (remember the island airport?), with personality and organiazation playing monumental roles -- and they're all about firing up 14% or more of the electorate enough to show up and vote for you.

The NDP, however, tends to act in a strictly partisan fashion even at the municipal level. That's why they're going to run a candidate of their own no matter what. And that's why Giambrone (if he wants it) could easily get the nod. He will definitely be an NDP torch-bearer, as he has been for all his adult life, and this is largely why under an NDP mayor he was given so many responsibilities that would ordinarily be thought of as out of his league. It also helps explain why he was able to get so many of his projects through.

Mayoral races in Toronto tend to whittle down to two horses in the end. Even when Lastman had no serious challenger for his second term, the media played up (ie overhyped and overplayed) the prospects of his nearest challenger, who wasn't anywhere near at all. Media tend to like two-option point-counterpoint stories, probably for reasons that go to human psychology, and that's probably what we'll get in the end.

And that's why this race will more than likely have whittled down to two horses by Thanksgiving. It will come down to microdemographics. Not just urban-suburban, but income, ethnicity, gender, age, lifestage, etc.

Potentially, John has much less growth appeal than George. If it was John vs "The Strike-Loving, Car-Hating, Tax and Spend Socialists" John could probably find enough Miller-haters to come through. Having little municipal baggage, he could probably forge a big enough tent by promising change and keeping the focus on Miller's negatives. But Miller's retirement and George's entry have wrecked that. He now has to find ways to pull microdemographics out of George's base. Given that John's negatives as a privileged wasp affiliated with a party that has arguably displayed a strong anti-urban, anti-education, anti-multiculturalism bias, this may be a tall order. George's biggest negatives, his bullheadedness and his sexuality, will probably not be hot-button enough to do the trick.

My point: This election will not be about centre left vs centre right because it will not be about ideology. It will be about John and George's defining issues that will create, expand and motivate their political base. Same for Adam, unless he wants this to be a dress rehearsal for the future.

 

[adma]

The NDP, however, tends to act in a strictly partisan fashion even at the municipal level. That's why they're going to run a candidate of their own no matter what. And that's why Giambrone (if he wants it) could easily get the nod. He will definitely be an NDP torch-bearer, as he has been for all his adult life, and this is largely why under an NDP mayor he was given so many responsibilities that would ordinarily be thought of as out of his league. It also helps explain why he was able to get so many of his projects through.

Well, it depends. After all, unless Tooker Gomberg counts, the NDP didn't run anybody against Lastman in 2000...

 

[Roy G Biv]

I like him, but I don't see Giambrone getting anywhere because of this simple equation:

1) Everyone loathes the TTC
2) Giambrone is the chair of the TTC

 

[Northern Magus]

Well, it depends. After all, unless Tooker Gomberg counts, the NDP didn't run anybody against Lastman in 2000...

I can see where you're coming from but I'd argue you're comparing apples to oranges.

In 2000 there was an extremely popular incumbent who'd held off raising property taxes and was respected throughout the electorate for it. (Remember, this was *before* Mel's second term.) The NDP provincial wing were in the midst of a bitter backstabbing, infighting period following their withering defeats in '95 and '99 and in the process of running out moderates like Rae and Lankin. Federally they were not making much inroads against Chretien (their support proving to be very soft), and they'd been shut out of the mayor's office for years.

It's pretty understandable that they were demoralizing, demotivated times. And in 2000 just about every credible challenger decided to keep their powder dry.

Flash forward 10 years and all wings of the NDP have steadily been winning more and more. They've been the incumbents at city hall since 2003, learned the discipline of power, and had the chance to use it to implement some of the core issues they believe in. There's also much different, more hands-on leadership federally from someone who cut his teeth in Toronto council. And there's upcoming federal and provincial elections as well.

If I were Jack, I'd want to run a candidate in order to keep the party visible and relevant, and its messages percolating among the electorate. I'd also use this as a chance to keep my troops in campaign shape and forge more connections in ridings that might swing federally or provincially. And it would be a chance to have a dress rehearsal for 2014 when there's no more Miller baggage and an anti-incumbent campaign might get more traction.

The only challenge is finding a suitably high profile candidate to run. Pretty much by default, it's Giambrone's if he wants it.

 

[nfitz]

Giambrone would be an intersting choice. While a lot of people have issues with the TTC, I think it's quiite clear to most people that Giambrone didn't create the issues, and had tried to move mountains to fix them.

The temptation by Smitherman (and other) would be to attack Giambrone's work to improve the TTC, and in particular attack transit expansion. And I'm not sure attacking improvements to transit is really going to capture that many voters, other than the hard-core right-wing who wouldn't vote for Giambrone, and didn't vote for Miller.

 

[Northern Magus]

I think while Tory and Smitherman are fighting it out and destroying eachother with negative ads, Giambrone can come up the middle......

Make no mistake: if Giambrone is ever in contention there would be plenty of negative ads coming his way. I'm sure that John and George will have learned from Barbara Hall's mistakes.

Miller quite arguably won in 2003 due to a convergence of several fortunate circumstances: Hall's refusal to take him seriously, her limited communications ability and lack of charisma, her lack of a defining campaign issue or focused platform, the loss of too many key advisers during the provincial election, the sudden appearance of two challengers instead of one (and neither being John Nunziata), Miller's hiring coups of John Laschinger and Peter Donolo, and the emergence of the island airport as the ballot question.

It's not impossible to replicate that success, but it would be pretty tough. The key figures behind Miller's cross-party coalition have steadily deserted him over the past year, so it's unclear to me how Giambrone would rebuild that big tent.

 

[Northern Magus]

The temptation by Smitherman (and other) would be to attack Giambrone's work to improve the TTC, and in particular attack transit expansion. And I'm not sure attacking improvements to transit is really going to capture that many voters, other than the hard-core right-wing who wouldn't vote for Giambrone, and didn't vote for Miller.

Doing so would only be motivated by an ideological perspective, and like you say neither of the big two would gain votes through this. In fact, it would probably shrink their tents dramatically. John prides himself on being an urban, urbane philanthropist and George was standing there with Miller at virtually every Transit City and waterfront cheque presenting and ribbon cutting announcement.

So I honestly don't think transit will be a ballot issue in the campaign. Property taxes and economic recovery definitely, but I can't see how there's anything to gain from cancelling TC lines and therefore killing the recession-proof jobs that go with it.

 

[TonyV]

At issue -- City Council's dysfunctional behaviour.

Let us presume:

- that it will be a two-person John vs. George contest -- two strong contenders

- that no earth shattering legislation will be enacted during the next year giving Toronto a truly strong mayor

- no appearance of party politics at city hall​

Who can handle unruly City Council?

I think that Council would tear John Tory apart on the first day; it appears he has learned nothing about politics. I think that council genuinely fears George Smitherman already. Smitherman can tame council.

In the absence of policies / agendas from either candidate, at this point I favour Georgie. Lots can change in a year, though.

 

[Oliver Tweed]

This time around we need the pendulum to swing to the right -- at least fiscally.

Whoever gets in must get finances under control. We're way past moderate responses. We need drastic action.

 

[GraphicMatt]

"Fiscal conservatives" tend to be BS artists of the biggest order in politics - if no candidate will talk about necessary tax increases over the course of their term, then they're fiscally irresponsible.

 

[nfitz]

I think that Council would tear John Tory apart on the first day; it appears he has learned nothing about politics. I think that council genuinely fears George Smitherman already. Smitherman can tame council.

Council feared Smitherman because he had power. He always came across like a bully, and his power tamed council.

As mayor he has little more than one vote. While he has some control over what goes to council, he has no way to pass it. If he goes in all dictatorial and Smitherman on him, I expect that council will eat him alive.

John Tory however, does have people skills, and might work quite well with council. He's clearly an intelligent man, and knows it would be futile to try and bend council in a direction it wouldn't go ... rather than try and force the round peg intot he square hole.

 

[taal]

John Tory all the way!

 

[Automation Gallery]

John Tory all the way!

Well if Johnny boy holds on to the same voters from 2003 he will cruise easily to victory.

2003 Toronto municipal election, Mayor of Torontoedit Candidate Total votes % of total votes
David Miller 299,385 43.26
John Tory 263,189 38.03
Barbara Hall 63,751 9.21
John Nunziata 36,021 5.20
Tom Jakobek 5,277 0.76
39 other candidates 24,462 3.53
Total valid votes 692,085 100.00

 

[taal]

That's why I have a feeling, at the end of the day, there might not be much of a competition here.

 

[TonyV]

John Tory all the way!

But why?

I haven't gone on side for either George or John yet, because I know nothing of what each stands for, what ambitions they might have for the city (not themselves!). Get under their skins and they seem perhaps a bit similar, politically. John Tory may label himself "conservative" but he may be about the most liberal of conservatives I've ever met, save for Crombie perhaps. As for George, well, he's more "angry" than your run-of-the-mill liberal.

So, then, what is John Tory at this point other than a bland (and somewhat passionless) white guy who is being vague on ideas? Why are you saying "Tory all the way" at this early stage, taal? Please tell. Please impress me.