How many bull runs do you guys think oil has left before electric cars completely take over??
I say one for sure and perhaps and 2nd one, but no more than that.
Opinions??
The question is a bit confusing, but it really depends on both the supply side and the demand side. Cars and all other vehicles are far from the only users of refined crude oil; all the other users are in play too, and many of those users are not going away quickly, and may see a very big surge in the near future. There's reportedly massive pent up demand for long-distance global travel, so jet fuel may have a 12 or 24 month period of huge demand that could cause another mini-spike in prices, even profitable enough to siphon off gasoline production, which would cause price spikes at the pumps here.
In the longer term, if supply starts trailing off in anticipation of a drop in demand, and the demand does not drop as quickly as anticipated there's a path for a longer term bull market. If there has been one constant in the past few decades, it's that the speed and demand for refined oil products declines far less than projected, and often still manages to increase when it is widely believe to have peaked. Or, to put it another way, change in global energy use is always far slower than even well-informed people expect.
EDIT: Another note is people have totally discounted the money that is backing technological enhancement and innovations to gasoline engines for cars and fuel efficiency. That has never gone away. There's a lot in play there to keep them in the game, and even ahead of electric cars for a long enough time, all of which can be easily marketed to consumers as "green". Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sudden breakthroughs that raise fuel efficiency in gasoline engine cars significantly in the next 10 years to keep them competitive. Some of those innovations we may discover could have been done a long time ago but they would put upward price on the initial cost of the car.
My personal expectation is that by 2050, the developed world will still not reach 20% of personal vehicles as electric, and the world as a whole will be under 5%.