AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Oddly enough, they could be solar energy powerhouses if they get their act together, though where would they export it to?
AoD
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How many runs does oil have left??
- Thread starter Fresco
- Start date
Oddly enough, they could be solar energy powerhouses if they get their act together, though where would they export it to?
AoD
afransen
Senior Member
For what it's worth, this study included a lot of mediocre compliance cars sold in California and is not really representative of attitudes towards EVs on the market more broadly today. Tesla sells a lot of units, and their owner satisfaction is at the top of the industry.
New study explains why nearly 20 percent of electric car owners return to gas
Some EV owners are not satisfied.thehill.com
afransen
Senior Member
They could become centres for synthetic chemical industry, using extremely cheap solar energy. Also some opportunity to export to Europe using HVDC transmission.
Northern Light
Superstar
Not that there was much doubt............but TransCanada has formally decided that the Keystone project is dead, and will now try to figure out how to un-do the 150km of pipeline it constructed.......
/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tgam/P72HJO4BBRN2ZAAGY6O2KW3KTU.JPG)
www.theglobeandmail.com
Keystone XL pipeline project scrapped in blow to Canada’s energy plan
TC Energy has decided to walk away from the Keystone XL pipeline following a ‘comprehensive review of options’ after U.S. President Joe Biden withdrew its permit earlier this year
www.theglobeandmail.com
kEiThZ
Superstar
The Middle East is heavily investing in renewables.
Why the Saudis Are Going Solar
Prince Turki bin Saud bin Mohammad Al Saud is helping to lead the kingdom’s shift to solar power. (Mohammed Al-Deghaishim)
www.theatlantic.com
UAE becomes world’s first country to produce aluminium using solar power
This solar-powered aluminium will be supplied to global customers under the new product name of CelestiAL.
gulfbusiness.com
But yes there's actually a broad debate in the strategic analysis community on what the transition means for geopolitics. A lot of these countries aren't ready. And the end of oil (or at least substantial reduction in revenue) won't just mean a loss of jobs, but also substantial government revenue that funds everything from large militaries, to the mosque construction that keeps their orthodox imams happy, to social services for a restive population, to bribes for rivals.
And they aren't the only ones in trouble. We don't talk about it at home. But oil has effectively funded a lot of our welfare state with substantial indirect contributions through equalization payments. What happens when Alberta isn't as large a cash cow and Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland all lose oil jobs and royalties while Alberta loses the ability to fund equalization substantially. It's amazing to me how much Canadians have buried their heads in the sand on this.
I'm always torn on what's going to disappear first the urban or suburban gas stations. The land is worth more in denser areas. But charging is much harder in denser areas. Neighborhoods like yours with lots of street parking are challenges to build charging networks for. There are solutions. But we really haven't gotten around to deploying them in Canada. On the other hand, out in Scarborough or North York, where lots of people have garages and driveways to park their cars, might be really easy to obsolete gas stations much quicker.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
Ford's stated range numbers were with a thousand pound load (classic half ton). Numbers will drop when towing. But hopefully, it's enough for most people towing regionally (several hundred kms).
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Alberta and Canada had a viable economy before oil took off in the mid 1960s. It's a shame Alberta wasted on its oil revenue through eschewing PST and high government spending rather than saving most of it, but that was an active, informed decision that they (and ROC) have to live with. Alberta can return to its roots in agricultural, forestry and non-petroleum mining and extraction. You've mentioned before the lack of battery manufacturing in Canada, perhaps Alberta can try to lead in that. Except for the oil sands, which are likely never returning long-term profitability, Canada's oil production has been on the decline since the early 70s, even with the addition of off shore drilling in NL.
As it stands, in the face of major climatic, economic and geopolitical changes Canada is in a better position than most - we have much of the world's fresh water, we grow much of our own food in regions better suited to climate change, we have a small, well educated population and the country is economically in "okay" shape. We're not what Trump would call a sh#thole country.
As an immigrant myself I do question why we're still bringing in hundreds of thousands of semi-skilled people - what are they going to do for work? IMO, Canada's biggest immigration error is family reunification, where one qualified immigrant can bring in several otherwise non-qualified members of their extended family. We emigrated from the UK, Dad, Mum and three kids under 7 y/o. There was no question of my parents then trying to bring our grandparents, uncles, cousins, etc to Canada - if granddad wanted to visit that was great, but if he wanted to live in Canada he should have been required to apply as a skilled immigrant on his own merits. The Australians do immigration right: you must pass a language proficiency test, you must have skills the country wants, and there is zero family reunification beyond dependent children.
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lenaitch
Senior Member
There is a thread on another forum I follow on Ford's new EV truck, and the question came up about the life span battery packs and re-cycling in general. There is apparently a small but emerging re-cycling industry, but I found these posts interesting. The poster is a retired electrical engineer and obviously, benefits from specialized knowledge, but I thought his experience was interesting:
*****
I had put an ad on craigslist to find my first battery pack.. the second one was from cold calling the junk yards every week for 5 months. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't.
My first pack was a Chevy VOLT, but I wasn't happy with it because the cells were configured in such a way that you could only break them down into 12s (44v) modules, and for a 48 volt system, that's already at the bottom of the operational voltage profile. It came from a vehicle with only 30k miles on it so they were like new and I only paid about 50% of what they were worth at the time.
My second pack were Chevy BOLT cells, and while they can be reconfigured, to do the job correctly requires a bit of time on a vertical mill to make specialized drill jigs and connector blocks. Then a week on a drill press and another 3 days to assemble. Easy enough, but very time consuming. Worth the effort though because they're LG Chem cells. I can pump 8000 watts into them and they only rise 1°C so that's darn impressive.
*****
Control of battery parameters is done using a BMS (Battery Management System). I use a high quality unit called a REC BMS that monitors and balances each cell group, controls charging functions, and acts as a safety device to prevent over-charge or over-discharge. REC, Batrium, Lithumate, and Orion are all very good BMS's.
As for the life expectancy of the cells, that is a complex issue. Lithium comes in different chemistries, but for the most part, we can call them Lipo, Phosphate, and LTO. Lipo batteries (500 to 2000 cycles depending on how you treat them) are what are normally used in cars and electronics, these are commonly referred to as Lithium-ion and have a half dozen sub categories all their own. The important thing to know is that their top and bottom voltages are all the same, which is generally 3 volts to 4.2 volts. Phosphate batteries, known as LiFePo4 (2000 to 6000 cycles), have a different voltage profile.. and LTO (Lithium TitanateOxide at 20k to 30k cycles) have yet another voltage profile.
All three lithium chemistries have different characteristics. Lipo cells tend to pack more energy in a much smaller and lighter package, but have the unfortunate ability to create large fire balls. Phosphate cells are very safe and generally just become big smoke bombs when they go rouge, but they are bulky, heavy, and expensive. LTO are the safest and can discharge more energy, and have life expediencies that are just stupidly long and measured in the 30,000 cycle range.. (you'll be giving them to your grandchildren), but they are just as stupidly expensive.
Most cars and small electronics use Lipo cells because of the portability issue. Most home solar batteries are phosphate because of the safety issue.. LTO is still kind of a specialty cell but they are starting to be installed in vehicles in Europe.
Avoiding all the technical discussions about internal parasitic reaction profiles, the general idea is to never charge a lithium battery up to its rated voltage.. Holding back 5% at the top will double your life cycle count while holding back 10% will triple or quadruple it. Then there's the temperature issue. Lithium batteries last longer if you keep them cool. If you want your cordless tool batteries to last a long time, keep them in your refrigerator.. seriously. The higher the cell voltage, or the higher the internal temperature, the faster the parasitic reactions degrade the battery. Doesn't matter if they're in storage or being used. The worst thing you can do with a power tool battery is to charge it up and leave it in your car during the summer.
If you're going to mess with them, you need to either become a quasi-expert, or stick to phosphate or LTO cells.. When you make a mistake with phosphate or LTO, you lose your investment.. When you make a mistake with Lipo cells, guys dressed in heavy gear with long water hoses show up.
If you ever build your own battery bank, try to shift your perspective... You're not buying a battery and adding a BMS.. You're buying a BMS and adding a battery. The BMS is the most important part. Without a good BMS, the rest of the system is at high risk of failure or short cycle life.
Here's a picture of mine [not copied]. This is 25kWh and can easily run my entire home as if the grid was still working.
******
(my question about thermal management)
The amount of energy my home draws, even when we are running laundry, dishwasher, leaving lights on, air conditioning, 3 freezers, 3 desktops, etc.. is but a fraction of what a 5000 lb car needs when it accelerates from a standstill to 70 mph or more.
In short, the amount of energy a home solar battery needs to deliver is a small fraction of what it was designed to do in a car. For this reason, the active liquid cooling systems are not required.
Even when we are charging or discharging close to our maximum limits, our battery bank will only warm up maybe 3 to 4 degrees F. And since the battery is housed in a nice cool basement, that small temperature rise is insignificant by any standard. The maximum temperature of our basement during a hot summer is only about 65 degreesF.. thermal issues aren't even considered until battery pack temps rise to at least 95 to 100, and even then, active liquid cooling wouldn't be employed unless it wants to go much higher than that.
I don't think I could get my battery over 75 degrees if I tried..
Yes, only for backup. We are normally grid-tied solar but since we living in rural countryside surrounded by corn and cows, our gird goes down a lot.. and when storms come through, we can be without power for a week at a time. Usually its 3 to 4 days but we've been without it for 2 weeks once.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I’m looking forward to electric motorcycles that can run at 100 kph for four to five hours between charges, and charge to over 50% in under an hour. Give me that for under CAD $20k and we’re set.
It’s getting close https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/en-ca/model/zero-srs
It’s getting close https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/en-ca/model/zero-srs
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kEiThZ
Superstar
Zero motorcycles were used by US Special Forces:
www.wired.com
Absolutely phenomenal pieces of kit. And 8 yrs of development will have certainly added to their awesomeness.
Zero Rolls Out a Rugged Electric Motorcycle for Special Ops
Electric motorcycles just went from practical to tactical with the Zero MMX, the first all-electric bike developed specifically for the U.S. Special Operation Forces.
Absolutely phenomenal pieces of kit. And 8 yrs of development will have certainly added to their awesomeness.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Looks like they’re all struggling to appeal to the public buyer.Zero motorcycles were used by US Special Forces:
Zero Rolls Out a Rugged Electric Motorcycle for Special Ops
Electric motorcycles just went from practical to tactical with the Zero MMX, the first all-electric bike developed specifically for the U.S. Special Operation Forces.
Absolutely phenomenal pieces of kit. And 8 yrs of development will have certainly added to their awesomeness.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Oh I agree they will be tough to sell. To begin with, Millennials and Zoomers are moving away from driving altogether. And next, they just don't have the same income and/or housing space for hobby vehicles. And that is what is reflected in sales. So the motorcycle OEMs in the West are left selling to a smaller and smaller market of aging Boomers who love motorcycles and want the thrill of a noisy, heavy and complicated machine.
This isn't the case in Asia though where electric motorcycles and three wheelers are really starting to catch on as a form of transport. And of course, there's the e-bikes that are both stealing share from motorcycles at the low end, but also starting to really blur the line in some cases, at least with urban driving. It's very possible to get e-bikes that do 60 kph.
I just wanted to make the point that these electric motorcycles are just awesome pieces of kit. And they will get cheaper as battery prices come down. They should be able to get them down to CA$12k with taxes and fees in 2-3 years. At least for a base model.
This isn't the case in Asia though where electric motorcycles and three wheelers are really starting to catch on as a form of transport. And of course, there's the e-bikes that are both stealing share from motorcycles at the low end, but also starting to really blur the line in some cases, at least with urban driving. It's very possible to get e-bikes that do 60 kph.
I just wanted to make the point that these electric motorcycles are just awesome pieces of kit. And they will get cheaper as battery prices come down. They should be able to get them down to CA$12k with taxes and fees in 2-3 years. At least for a base model.
afransen
Senior Member
Maybe people interested in motorcycle + electric gravitate more to ebikes. There are some pretty serious ebikes that are like quasi motorcycles but don't require motorcycle license, etc.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
This might change things quickly https://advrider.com/uk-issues-2040-ice-phase-out-plan-no-more-new-gas-bikes-after-2035/
kEiThZ
Superstar
I'm not sure electrification addresses those other concerns. Motorcycling, is still a capital intensive hobby that requires a substantial suburban lifestyle. Gotta have a house to store that bike.