Highway 401 Transit and Auto Tunnel

[innsertnamehere]

I think it is fair to point out that buying out the lease for the 407 and dropping tolls wouldn't actually add much effective capacity to the highway network. It might reduce some VMTs directly by having people take more direct routes, but the 407 would be instantly jammed and there would be no way to cross the region quickly at any price (short of a private helicopter). Perhaps the 407 could be expanded further? The 407 ROW is generally fairly large, but I'm not sure how much further it could be widened without some expropriation. Normally I would balk at buying out the lease (at least half of it is going to CPP), but it might be a better option than spending $100B on a 30 year megaproject.

given the 407's private ownership it wouldn't surprise me if we see the company undertake privately-initiated expansions at some point as capacity goes overboard. At a certain point the revenue potential from additional capacity pays for any expansion.

There is definitely room for a collector-express system on the 407. It would be very expensive to upgrade the highway to such a design, but is the land is likely there with minimal expropriation.

The demand just isn't there for it right now as it's only starting to approach capacity in it's central sections.

 

[ericmacm]

I'm not sure Ontario can pat itself on the back with its 'tunnelling expertise' given how projects have gone.

For the cost of a subway line, it shouldn't be buried under the 401 where it is impossible to access. That whole idea is nonsense, and only designed to make the car tunnel seem less egregious.

To be fair, most of Line 5 Eglinton’s problems (as far as we know at least) appear to be predominantly with the more final aspects of the project, not explicitly the advancement of the tunnels, which finished a long time ago for the original project. You need to look no further than how quickly Eglinton West Advance Tunnel works have gone.

I do agree that putting it directly under the 401 limits accessibility and maybe isn’t the best choice for a subway line, but I don’t see a ton of other options that would justify building a tunnel, other than commuter rail.

 

[rbt]

given the 407's private ownership it wouldn't surprise me if we see the company undertake privately-initiated expansions at some point as capacity goes overboard. At a certain point the revenue potential from additional capacity pays for any expansion.

It's my understanding the 407 agreement requires land be set aside for a 407 Transitway. While only a couple lanes, it gets to be a tight squeeze in some locations like here where the CN track and hydro corridor squeeze in the highway corridor. Some of that can be moved but the price will escalate rapidly.

 

[innsertnamehere]

If expansion was to a, say, 18-lane core-collectors system similar to the 401 south of Pearson, you would need a minimum corridor width of about 100 metres for the highway itself not including any merge lanes or collector-express transfers.

That stretch is already 12 lanes and about 60 metres wide, so you 'need' about 40 metres of additional width.

That stretch in the image has about 300 metres between the CN rail line and Hydro Corridor - I'm unsure of the nature of the utility corridor in that image, but imagine that a 100-m 407, ~20m 407 Transitway, and utility corridor could be accomodated.

Cost escalation on pinch-points is definitely a valid concern, but most of the 407 has a minimum ROW of 120m with extras in many locations and plenty of spare land on either side on top of it's immediate ROW. The Transitway would be the biggest problem, but at a scale of investment such a project would be, not insurmountable.

 

[chrisw]

given the 407's private ownership it wouldn't surprise me if we see the company undertake privately-initiated expansions at some point as capacity goes overboard. At a certain point the revenue potential from additional capacity pays for any expansion.

407 ETR opens new lane in each direction in area between Highway 401 and Highway 410

407 ETR has announced the official opening of 33 new lane kilometres on Highway 407 ETR between Highway 401 and Highway 410.

newsroom.ferrovial.com

A press release in 2020 regarding the opening of 33km of new lanes, between highway 401 and 410.

• Since 2001, 407 ETR has added more than 600 km of lanes to the highway at no cost to tax payers.
• Since assuming operation and maintenance of the highway, 407 ETR has invested more than $1.6B in extensions and expansions to accommodate the growing volume of drivers. This is above and beyond its $3.1B investment for the lease agreement.
• 407 ETR pays all costs of operating the highway, including the full cost of policing, snow removal, enforcement by the Ministry of Transportation and repairs and maintenance to the roadway.

It is quite hilarious though. They've invested $1.6 Billion in extensions and expansions. But they make $0.5 Billion a year in profit and that's after paying $0.5 B in interest. They've paid out $11B in dividends.

 

[innsertnamehere]

yes, up until now the 407 has been adding expansions which were "future-proofed" into the original design. Since the design originally protected for them, they were relatively inexpensive. Those have now been exhausted between the 401 and 404, meaning the corridor is at it's "ultimate" build out of capacity. Any further expansion would involve the expensive reconstruction of bridges, etc. across the corridor which will add huge additional costs.

 

[lenaitch]

yes, up until now the 407 has been adding expansions which were "future-proofed" into the original design. Since the design originally protected for them, they were relatively inexpensive. Those have now been exhausted between the 401 and 404, meaning the corridor is at it's "ultimate" build out of capacity. Any further expansion would involve the expensive reconstruction of bridges, etc. across the corridor which will add huge additional costs.

Tunnel it!!!

 

[Ratazana]

I feel like this is another case of Dougie trying to come up with a solution without first understanding the problem.
Before sinking any money into feasibility study, the first question should be: what are the use cases of the 401? And what percentage of traffic falls into each use case.
Off the top of my head:
1, Through traffic (sub-category: truck vs passenger vehicles) that are not coming and going beyond the GTA.
2, inter-GTA municipalities commute (e.g. Mississauga to Whitby)
3, intra-gta commute (long/medium/short ranges, e.g. Etobicoke to Scarborough, vs airport to Yorkdale, vs STC to Fairview Mall)
4, feeders in and out of other HWY
Etc. etc. etc.

Once the above is known, THEN you can identify a solution.
E.g.
- through traffic: 407 incentive would divert them
- inter municipalities commutes and long range intra commute: GO train with limited stops. (Way cheaper to do this elevated but will require convenient connections to last mile transits)

I trust that sanity will prevail once the smarter people get involved.

 

[PL1]

I feel like this is another case of Dougie trying to come up with a solution without first understanding the problem.
Before sinking any money into feasibility study, the first question should be: what are the use cases of the 401? And what percentage of traffic falls into each use case.
Off the top of my head:
1, Through traffic (sub-category: truck vs passenger vehicles) that are not coming and going beyond the GTA.
2, inter-GTA municipalities commute (e.g. Mississauga to Whitby)
3, intra-gta commute (long/medium/short ranges, e.g. Etobicoke to Scarborough, vs airport to Yorkdale, vs STC to Fairview Mall)
4, feeders in and out of other HWY
Etc. etc. etc.

Once the above is known, THEN you can identify a solution.
E.g.
- through traffic: 407 incentive would divert them
- inter municipalities commutes and long range intra commute: GO train with limited stops. (Way cheaper to do this elevated but will require convenient connections to last mile transits)

I trust that sanity will prevail once the smarter people get involved.

You *know* he's proposed the solution, and is trying to shoehorn the problem. But, agreed that hopefully sanity will prevail

 

[lenaitch]

I feel like this is another case of Dougie trying to come up with a solution without first understanding the problem.
Before sinking any money into feasibility study, the first question should be: what are the use cases of the 401? And what percentage of traffic falls into each use case.
Off the top of my head:
1, Through traffic (sub-category: truck vs passenger vehicles) that are not coming and going beyond the GTA.
2, inter-GTA municipalities commute (e.g. Mississauga to Whitby)
3, intra-gta commute (long/medium/short ranges, e.g. Etobicoke to Scarborough, vs airport to Yorkdale, vs STC to Fairview Mall)
4, feeders in and out of other HWY
Etc. etc. etc.

Once the above is known, THEN you can identify a solution.
E.g.
- through traffic: 407 incentive would divert them
- inter municipalities commutes and long range intra commute: GO train with limited stops. (Way cheaper to do this elevated but will require convenient connections to last mile transits)

I trust that sanity will prevail once the smarter people get involved.

You're missing a key point. Part of solution is to pay some friendly consulting companies a trunkload of money to pretend to chew on a pointless project for a few months.

 

[rdaner]

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[2323]

yes, up until now the 407 has been adding expansions which were "future-proofed" into the original design. Since the design originally protected for them, they were relatively inexpensive. Those have now been exhausted between the 401 and 404, meaning the corridor is at it's "ultimate" build out of capacity. Any further expansion would involve the expensive reconstruction of bridges, etc. across the corridor which will add huge additional costs.

I would presume at this point the next step forward is reconstruction of some substandard ramps on the freeway to freeway interchanges along the core part of the 407, and as part of that they could "future-proof" for a collector-express system. Aside from the 407/400, the rest have loop ramps that I have to imagine someone is eyeing to get rid of. Especially the 427 interchange which was designed at a time where the 427 effectively ended there.

 

[Jonny5]

Can't we just nuke the hurricane away?

 

[jje1000]

I feel like this is another case of Dougie trying to come up with a solution without first understanding the problem.
Before sinking any money into feasibility study, the first question should be: what are the use cases of the 401? And what percentage of traffic falls into each use case.
Off the top of my head:
1, Through traffic (sub-category: truck vs passenger vehicles) that are not coming and going beyond the GTA.
2, inter-GTA municipalities commute (e.g. Mississauga to Whitby)
3, intra-gta commute (long/medium/short ranges, e.g. Etobicoke to Scarborough, vs airport to Yorkdale, vs STC to Fairview Mall)
4, feeders in and out of other HWY
Etc. etc. etc.

Once the above is known, THEN you can identify a solution.
E.g.
- through traffic: 407 incentive would divert them
- inter municipalities commutes and long range intra commute: GO train with limited stops. (Way cheaper to do this elevated but will require convenient connections to last mile transits)

I trust that sanity will prevail once the smarter people get involved.

IMO an alternate reading is that the 401 tunnel is a misdirection and the ultimate goal is to lead the public towards a buy-out of the 407 (despite the denials) or perhaps some sort of co-habitation/public subsidy to make it free to use, or to push the 413 as a 'cheaper' alternative.

It's just the same with the Ontario Science Centre, the report on the roof panels is used to justify shutting it down early so that the move to Ontario Place can begin (in order to then justify the redevelopment plans there)..

 

[rdaner]

Ontario Premier Doug Ford won’t rule out buyback of Highway 407, valued at $29-billion

Doug Ford says ‘all options are on the table’ to fight congestion

www.theglobeandmail.com