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GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

People are very angry about increasing Hydro costs do we think increased GO service can get support back?

Mrs. Wynne will need more than a fabulous smooth GO roll-out to move things meaningfully back to win territory. She may need Harry Potter, Gandalf, Sabrina the little witch, or Glinda the Good Witch of the South if things continue as they are. I'd personally settle for a slap-down of some of the decade-long trough-ers.
 
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The problem is, there is no one better than her. She is bad, no argument there. However, there isn't anyone out there that is any better.
I fear we are in for 5-10 more years of horrible politics in Ontario.
 
How much of an impact do you think GO service will have on the Liberals popularity? People are very angry about increasing Hydro costs do we think increased GO service can get support back?
Mrs. Wynne will need more than a fabulous smooth GO roll-out to move things meaningfully back to win territory. She may need Harry Potter, Gandalf, Sabrina, or Glinda the Good Witch of the South if things continue as they are. I'd personally settle for a slap-down of some of the decade-long trough-ers.
With Bart here. It will improve commute, but there is so much other crap that it will be tough to overcome.
 
How much of an impact do you think GO service will have on the Liberals popularity? People are very angry about increasing Hydro costs do we think increased GO service can get support back?

I don't think it will be significant at all. As many here have pointed out, the vast majority of GO riders have no idea 1) what RER is, 2) what RER will personally do for their travel, 3) what their vote in the election has to do with RER in clear specific terms--and I'm quite certain that virtually no non-GO riders know or care at all. RER is still so nebulous and relatively far-off (>1 term) that it just isn't something most people know anything about.

For me, it's a tough one. I hate a lot of things the liberals have done, i.e. the Hyrdo One sale and increased prices, but RER, general transit building across the province (tons of beautiful LRTs), and their support for Electric Vehicles (such as upcoming free charging at home overnight) are all extremely important to me and the PCs would certainly kill EV incentives and likely scrap or severely lobotomize RER/general transit construction, and I don't see the NDP as having any real chance until they throw Horwath out the door and let the door hit her on the way out (thanks to her giving Wynne her current majority on a silver platter with that stunt she pulled). I also completely abhor my local Liberal MPP, he is distasteful and rude, he never responded to a serious but simple inquiry that I made multiple times to his office through various channels. So I'm in a really tough spot next election, and I think a lot of Ontarians are likely similarly conflicted.

But, to your question, I don't see GO service having any significant effect at all--I don't think anywhere near 1% of the vote will likely hinge on GO service specifically.
 
I don't think anywhere near 1% of the vote will likely hinge on GO service specifically.
I find the issue so depressing, I wasn't going to throw in my 3 cents worth (2 cents + inflation), and I agree with everyone's gist, but here's the danger:
*Improvements* won't help or help little, but using the issue of *incompetence* will become one of the issues, at the same time not offering an improvement.

Watch for negative campaigning like you're never seen it before in this province. Does the name "Trump" ring a bell? I detest the man, even as I'm to the right of centre on some issues, but this election won't be *for* someone, it will be against them. And guess who that is? Just as Average Pleb knows little to nothing on RER et al, they will know the smell of blood, and react accordingly. A clever orator and commanding presence could handle that. Wynne can't.
 
The Liberal promises won't get them any loyalty. The things that do come on line before the election may get modest acknowledgement, but not enough to outweigh the non-transit crap.

What Wynne may be able to leverage is any noise made by the PC's around cancelling or deferring any of the Liberal "promises". The Liberals' promises don't have much behind them, but PC takeaways will not be popular.

- Paul
 
Hopefully they abandoned the "cut 100,000 public service employees."

They didn't want them "cut", they wanted them "fired". That is what backfired. They couldn't have done a better job of sounding like a crowd of meanspirited haters. (Which they fundamentally are, IMHO.) Balancing the budget isn't worthwhile unless they had the enjoyment of "firing" people.

Every Ontario family has a teacher or a health care worker or public servant, or two. That promise drove fear into just about every home in the province.... when it ought to have been pitched as simple prudence.

Ontario desperately needs some financial discipline, and the deficits can't continue indefinitely. I just wish we could find a good centrist leader who acknowledges the need for services and investment, but has a disciplined, diligent inclination so the spending is managed properly.

The reality is, we are going to be a high-taxation province. It's the only way to fund the things the voters expect. Transit being one, but far from the only item on the list.

- Paul
 
Now I must admit it's pretty cool to see Barrie getting All day two way trains on weekends (frequency is bad but not that bad) . Is the only reason the same service doesn't exist during weekdays a lack of rolling stock?

As of today, there is only a single operational siding on the line, which is between Maple and King City stations. A second siding, between YorkU and Rutherford stations, was supposed to be completed in August 2016, but it's behind schedule so it won't begin operation until later this year. That new siding would have allowed the off-peak service to operate every 60 minutes (with a 10-minute layover at Aurora), but for now we're making do with 75-minute off-peak service (with a 46-minute layover at Aurora).

With only a single siding along the line, it's physically impossible to have any counter-peak service, because the existing peak-direction commuter service operates every 30 minutes in the afternoon peak, and every 15 minutes in the morning. A hypothetical counter-peak train would encounter peak-direction trains more frequently than the sidings exist.

With the current track configuration, a weekday service would need to operate over an even more limited time-span than the existing midday service on the Kitchener line. The first and last off-peak Kitchener Line trips do meet peak-direction trips, which wouldn't be possible on the Barrie Line. Once the new Rutherford siding comes on line later this year, it might just be possible to squeeze a single counter-peak train past the start or end of peak-direction service, allowing for midday service with similar hours to the existing Kitchener Line service.

Yup. It has been slow reece, but we are getting there. By 2018. We should have all day service on Stoufville, Barrie, Mt Pleasant at least. Milton should be on the table, unless they liberals want to lose seats out there. I hate the slow pace myself, but we are moving forward which is key.

Actually I don't think the pace is slow at all. GO Transit has seen more service expansion in the last decade than it did for its entire previous history combined. Of course many train lines still operate peak-direction commuter service as they have for decades, but in the meantime we've seen huge expansions of bus service, with half-hourly or better two-way all-day bus service to most train stations, as well as the development of crosstown routes such as the 407 corridor, and the expansion of the service area to include places such as Niagara, Kitchener, Guelph, Brantford and Peterborough. A decade ago Kitchener had no GO service at all, and today it has 4 commuter train round trips per day, hourly express service to Brampton, hourly local service to Square One, frequent express service to Square One or Bramalea/York on certain days and peak-direction express buses from Cambridge to Milton.

The big service expansion is just starting to spread to GO Trains, as the construction projects we started years ago are starting to reach completion. For example, full double-track from Union to Aurora (including the Davenport grade-separation and provision for a future third track), full quad-track from Union to Pearson Junction, finally expanding the pinch point at Bayview Junction (Hamilton), a passing siding at Milliken, full quad-track from Union to Port Credit, and extending the triple track from Guildwood to Pickering.

The Barrie Line is one the furthest along in its service and track expansion. It doesn't have the highest potential new off-peak ridership of the seven train lines, but it is logistically the easiest to implement. But even without the massive train service expansion planned between now and 2018, the rate of service expansion has been quite respectable:
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Notes: I'm not sure when service increased from 4 round trips per day to 5. I've shown it as 2011 but that might be off by a year or so. Frequency is measured during the summer (so from 2013-2016 it includes the pilot weekend service).
 

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I don't use GO trains frequently. I use LSW to visit friends in Burlington and since it's a social visit involving alcohol, it's a great way not to be drinking and then driving back into the city.

Anecdotally, I do often drive back in the late evening from the Sherway area and I see a westbound LSW train and bloody hell - they look fairly full at 10, 10:30, 11:00, or 11:30 at night.

So these comments were a long lead in to: Are the all-day (Kitchener, LSW, LSE) and weekend services (LWS and LSE) attracting significant ridership or can you shoot a cannonball through a 12-car train?
 
RER could be a fantastic service or a cataclysmic failure, it's all going to depend on the fares and fare integration. Very fe people in Toronto use GO despite having, by far, the most extensive coverage, the most corridors, the most stations, and most frequent service and that is due to only one reason and only one reason........it's too damn expensive. 100% fare integration would help but not enough to make it the stellar success it could be. Price, more than anything else matters and you would think Metrolinx would have learnt that lesson from UPX.
 
I don't use GO trains frequently. I use LSW to visit friends in Burlington and since it's a social visit involving alcohol, it's a great way not to be drinking and then driving back into the city.

Anecdotally, I do often drive back in the late evening from the Sherway area and I see a westbound LSW train and bloody hell - they look fairly full at 10, 10:30, 11:00, or 11:30 at night.

So these comments were a long lead in to: Are the all-day (Kitchener, LSW, LSE) and weekend services (LWS and LSE) attracting significant ridership or can you shoot a cannonball through a 12-car train?

I haven't been able to find any detailed ridership statistics for the past few years. They keep publishing system-wide ridership, which tells you a lot for UP Express given that there's only a single line, but doesn't tell you much about GO.

Anyway the problem in your question is the 12-car train. If the metric for ridership is how full it makes a 12-car double-decker train, then hardly any rail lines in the world would have off-peak service. Consider that even in the most rail-oriented countries, off-peak regional services are rarely more than 8-car single-decker EMUs operating at 6 trains per hour. Which is the capacity equivalent of about 3 trains per hour with 12-car GO trains (and of course a lot fewer people would take those trains if they only operated 3x per hour).

GO Trains are absolutely enormous. So even a mostly-empty train is still a huge number of people. Currently GO doesn't bother re-organizing its trains outside of rush hour to reduce excess capacity, because the savings from running shorter trains aren't enough to offset the cost of reorganizing the trains. Passengers boarding an off-peak train may feel like the train is empty and therefore a waste of money. In contrast, if trains were reorganized to have fewer cars off-peak, passengers would feel that the trains are well-used and therefore a good use of money - even though it's actually a worse use of money than the current situation. And as we've discussed here before, all-day services have a lower per-train operating cost than peak-only services, so they don't need to be as full to achieve the same economic performance. Another factor that's not intuitive to the average rider.

If the year 2016 has taught us anything it's that current politics are entirely about perception. It doesn't matter how well things work, it only matters how well they appear to work. So at the end of the day, regardless of any well-justified reports that find that the new trains have reasonable ridership for the operating cost, the political reaction to off-peak train service will be dictated more by facebook posts saying that the new GO trains are running empty (hashtag liberalwaste).
 
I haven't been able to find any detailed ridership statistics for the past few years. They keep publishing system-wide ridership, which tells you a lot for UP Express given that there's only a single line, but doesn't tell you much about GO.

Anyway the problem in your question is the 12-car train. If the metric for ridership is how full it makes a 12-car double-decker train, then hardly any rail lines in the world would have off-peak service. Consider that even in the most rail-oriented countries, off-peak regional services are rarely more than 8-car single-decker EMUs operating at 6 trains per hour. Which is the capacity equivalent of about 3 trains per hour with 12-car GO trains (and of course a lot fewer people would take those trains if they only operated 3x per hour).

GO Trains are absolutely enormous. So even a mostly-empty train is still a huge number of people. Currently GO doesn't bother re-organizing its trains outside of rush hour to reduce excess capacity, because the savings from running shorter trains aren't enough to offset the cost of reorganizing the trains. Passengers boarding an off-peak train may feel like the train is empty and therefore a waste of money. In contrast, if trains were reorganized to have fewer cars off-peak, passengers would feel that the trains are well-used and therefore a good use of money - even though it's actually a worse use of money than the current situation. And as we've discussed here before, all-day services have a lower per-train operating cost than peak-only services, so they don't need to be as full to achieve the same economic performance. Another factor that's not intuitive to the average rider.

If the year 2016 has taught us anything it's that current politics are entirely about perception. It doesn't matter how well things work, it only matters how well they appear to work. So at the end of the day, no matter how well-researched and justified a report is that states that the ridership is reasonable for the operating cost, the political reaction to off-peak train service will be dictated more by facebook posts of people saying that the new GO trains are running empty (hashtag liberalwaste).

I ought to have been clearer. Are there some good qtys of people riding? Others here were referring to under ten people boarding in the AM on one of the two trains that GO introduced in summer 2015 westbound from West Harbour in the morning. Numbers like that would make anyone nervous. Is the off-peak ridership significant? Or are the trains mostly empty. Forget about the consist details.
 
I ought to have been clearer. Are there some good qtys of people riding? Others here were referring to under ten people boarding in the AM on one of the two trains that GO introduced in summer 2015 westbound from West Harbour in the morning. Numbers like that would make anyone nervous. Is the off-peak ridership significant? Or are the trains mostly empty. Forget about the consist details.

Sorry, I didn't mean to pick on your post in particular, I was just using it to make my point that GO needs to be increasingly cautious about how the new train services appear to perform if they are to be useful political tools. Which means they really need to cut down off-peak train lengths even though that doesn't necessarily make economic sense.

I'm also interested to see how the new services perform in terms of actual people carried. I've been wondering about emailing GO for some more detailed ridership info - which would allow me to make some other comparisons I'd like to do.

And yeah, if the new off-peak trains have as little ridership as the Pan-Am express to Hamilton then it doesn't matter what consist they run. Anecdotally, the Barrie line summer weekend trains had pretty dismal ridership the first year the summer pilot was run (2013), but ridership seems to have grown each year since, to the point that on labour day (?) 2016, I rode a mostly-full 10-car train into Union on a weekend (>1000 passengers on that individual train). I'm guessing the new weekend Barrie line trains will have truly pathetic ridership this year, but it will increase steadily over the next few years as more people get used to considering the GO train as an option for off-peak travel.
 
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