A bit late, but nonetheless...
I think the uncertainty that's tied to Brampton getting off-peak hourly service is tied more to staffing levels than track or train availability. I can understand that it's hard for them to forecast how many crews they're actually going to have 5-10 years from now.
Its not hard at all actually. The reason why we're in a bit of a bind crew wise is because the government didn't want to pony up the money. Only recently did stop being, quite frankly 'cheap', since we're now finally on our way to literally doubling the work force within a year or two from last years numbers at the current hiring pace.
This is not the first time crew shortage has insinuated its way into the Brampton discussion.....just wondering....how many extra crews are now needed on Lakeshore for the 263 extra train trips per week.
I am not as intuitively up on train operation as you might be...sorry. Can you explain that means in reference to my question? How many additional crews are needed for the 263 train trips being added to Lakeshore?
Not as many as you might think, since most of the 'new' runs are actually split shifts being transformed into 'long hauls' essentially increasing the amount of work a single crew can do in the same pay period by about 50%. Accomplished by not having to prep a train twice a day, mornings & evenings (30mins each time). Not having to deadhead to Union (30 more)and instead of holding at Union prior to a run it'll be load n'go (another 30). Longer hours will probably also be implemented initially even though B's been trying to cut back ot hours like the plague recently.
We may not be able to predict how many staff they need in 5- 10 years but we can, surely, figure out how many we have now, and how many extra are being allocated to Lakeshore as of June and ask the question that if there are "X" number of additional crews around, why is it so much more imperative to offer 30 minute service on one/two lines with those crew and not any off peak service on the other lines (and, before it is pointed out, I know that the "now" discussion does not include KW but there are other vastly underserved lines that could use more trains).
It's a matter of revenue. They simply have forecasted that spending 7.7 million a year(their estimate) on increasing capacity on a well established line will bring in more money then spending the same amount of money on any other line. GO does not make decisions based on favoritism. They're made base on one of two things; either financial benefit base on ridership projections, (but that's not to say that they couldn't flawed) or their simply political. The province is trying to run GO like a private company would(cutting the operating ratio as much as possible) and this is not a political decisions(otherwise we would of had it 5 years ago).
I'd agree that's not fair at all and its up for debate whether or not that's the way a government should operate a public service, but its certainly based on something more than tangible than favoritism. Brampton may have a large population catchment but that doesn't necessarily mean you'll get more fares per train. I've operated many of the late outpost train runs and it seems to me that the late mid day and evening-night Lakeshore trains are busier. If those fringe rush hour trains cant get many rider I cant see the mid day or late night runs on outpost lines doing too well, at least initially. Which doesn't mean that I think they shouldn't get more service, quite the opposite in fact because I'm sure over time they would do quite well. It just means that I understand why they are going with this expansion first.
"service will be added" is not all day service.
we already know what the added service in 2015 is on KW line and it is (broken record time here) 5 more return trips, weekdays only, than what existed prior to the construction and expenditure of $1.2B
This may be what has been publicly stated but it would be very easy for them to add another long haul or two on that line at that time. I have no doubt they will do so if the demand is there for it once all the construction on the line is finished.
Drum gave the formula for crews....if he is right (usually the case) and my math is good (not as certain on that) the number of crews is 23!.
I suppose I should get into a more detailed analyses of this.
His was a good estimate but not exact. A better way to calculate it than using hours is by how many trips a crew does during a shift. One common shift is a 10:20(or 10:40 for equipment trains heading back to the shop at the end of the night)hr long hauls which does 3.5 trips per day. Another less frequent option is a 8:40hr job which does 3 trips. So depending on how much ot they want to pay(preferable for them none at all) one crew can do between 24 to 35 trips per week. They seem to like the five 10 hr shifts one week four 10hr the next rotation so they'll probably go for that. Which makes for 16 trips(3.5 x4.5) per week per crew on average. And we know exactly how many new trips the service is adding, 263. Which means they need about
19 crews, including spare coverage.
However, as I mentioned previously, that number would be reduced by the increased utilization of crews on long hauls as opposed to split shifts which currently comprise more than 75% of all assignments. Most split shifts only do the equivalent of 2(10 per week) Oshawa-Aldershot trips on average. It all depends on how many they want to and can convert. If they convert say 10 split assignments into long hauls that means the same crews will do 60 more trips a week. Then they would only need
14 or 15 new crews for the service.
Basically.There's no way the have all the crews now, it takes 2 years at the least to train these people. These guys are going to be working longer and harder, I feel sorry for vegeta.
It'll be close, real close but they'll be able to do it imo.
If they go for 10hr 5 day a week every week for the new jobs as well as add hours to current jobs, the could drop the number of new jobs to maybe 10 to 12. I'd say we have about 10 extra eng right now(though the spare board would be stretched thin then so probably on 8) plus 3-4 in training who should be ready by then as well as few others off right now but I have no idea whether they'll be back or not by then.
And lol thanks. But its ok, I actually like the ot as I always take it when I can get it
When you ask them when that line (to any point in the line) will get all day service the answer is quite clear in its vagueness....there are no plans, maybe some day...be patient.....and that is the corridor that they themselves describe as the second highest density in the region....with large population centres and some pretty significant ridership drivers along the way....so (given a bit of time with a decent schedule) there is no reason to expect/assume that ridership and cost recovery would not be very significant.
But your forgetting, vagueness is GO's forte. Take the half hour Lakeshore service, even though its been rumored for years and I was aware of it months ago;
Word is... Niagara service to return in May with an additional train. Barrie weekend service will be back and 1/2 hour Lakeshore service is to begin in June
they only made the official announcement a little over two months before its actual implementation.
I can understand your frustration but to expect them to make official announcements about future service years in advance is just setting your self up for disappointment.
FWIW a couple of weeks ago all my Lakeshore trips had a new trainee "customer service ambassador" on them working with the regular one. So looked to me like they're training a bunch of new people.
Lets just put it this way. The first CSA had to wait 3 to 4
years before they started advancing them to become conductors. Today the average wait is 6-8
months. Almost every CSA who hired on originally is now a conductor(except for those who chose to say as a CSA). I literally don't recognize about a third of the workforce.
That batch of "customer service ambassador" are less than 2 years away for trying out for the engineer seat. That rule needs to be change.
Yes it does, but unfortunately its not something GO has control over.
For example, how many people live or work within walking distance of Oshawa GO Station?
As surprising as it may be and despite its isolated location, when eyeballing how many people get off at stops in the past Ive find that Oshawa is consistently one of the busier if not the busiest station Lakeshore East station in the evening. Might be because of connections though.
