King of Kensington
Senior Member
When we look at the ridings in Ontario, these are the ridings I think can swing:
416:
Beaches-East York (Liberal, could go NDP)
Parkdale-High Park (NDP, could go Liberal)
905 belt:
Mississauga-Streetsville (I'm pretty sure the Libs will at least take this one back!)
Mississauga South, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville (these are high income seats that are still WASP enough to fall to the Tories, they came pretty close last time)
Halton (depends on if people agree if Garth Turner is important as he thinks he is, and/or national trend)
Oshawa (the Tories seem to keep winning this, but the NDP still comes close - what effect will Flaherty have in his backyard?)
Hamilton/Niagara:
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (possible Liberal steal, though the Libs have really fallen out of favor in Hamilton)
St. Catharines (narrow Tory hold, could swing back to the Liberals)
Welland (Liberal held but the NDP took 30% last time and Peter Kormos represents it provincially)
Southwest:
Guelph (byelection with Tom King running for the NDP, could go anywhere)
Kitchener-Waterloo (Andrew Telegdi's riding, but if he retires maybe it could go Tory)
Brant (narrowly went Liberal last time, possible Tory pickup)
London-Fanshawe (Libs could maybe steal it if "laptop-gate" becomes an issue)
London West (narrow Lib win, Tories could take it)
Eastern Ontario:
Ottawa-Orleans (Tories won it narrowly, Libs could take it back)
Peterborough (ditto)
Northern Ontario:
Algoma-Manitoulin, Nickel Belt, Thunder Bay-Rainy River and Superior North (Liberal seats that were near misses for the NDP)
Sudbury (could go NDP if things are really good)
Kenora (probably the only real three-way race in Ont.)
416:
Beaches-East York (Liberal, could go NDP)
Parkdale-High Park (NDP, could go Liberal)
905 belt:
Mississauga-Streetsville (I'm pretty sure the Libs will at least take this one back!)
Mississauga South, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville (these are high income seats that are still WASP enough to fall to the Tories, they came pretty close last time)
Halton (depends on if people agree if Garth Turner is important as he thinks he is, and/or national trend)
Oshawa (the Tories seem to keep winning this, but the NDP still comes close - what effect will Flaherty have in his backyard?)
Hamilton/Niagara:
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (possible Liberal steal, though the Libs have really fallen out of favor in Hamilton)
St. Catharines (narrow Tory hold, could swing back to the Liberals)
Welland (Liberal held but the NDP took 30% last time and Peter Kormos represents it provincially)
Southwest:
Guelph (byelection with Tom King running for the NDP, could go anywhere)
Kitchener-Waterloo (Andrew Telegdi's riding, but if he retires maybe it could go Tory)
Brant (narrowly went Liberal last time, possible Tory pickup)
London-Fanshawe (Libs could maybe steal it if "laptop-gate" becomes an issue)
London West (narrow Lib win, Tories could take it)
Eastern Ontario:
Ottawa-Orleans (Tories won it narrowly, Libs could take it back)
Peterborough (ditto)
Northern Ontario:
Algoma-Manitoulin, Nickel Belt, Thunder Bay-Rainy River and Superior North (Liberal seats that were near misses for the NDP)
Sudbury (could go NDP if things are really good)
Kenora (probably the only real three-way race in Ont.)