King of Kensington
Senior Member
My prediciton for Elizabeth May is not based on these polling numbers (esp. given Atlantic sample sizes are so small). While there isn't a Liberal candidate in that riding, that in no way ensures that the Liberal vote there (around 25% last time) will flock to Elizabeth May. The NDP got second place there last time (32%), and the NDP vote there is mainly a blue collar vote, not a "bohemian/urban intelligentsia/creative class" vote like it is in Trinity-Spadina, and that group isn't as susceptible to the Green appeal (i.e. places like Cape Breton or Northern Ontario aren't exactly hotbeds of Green support). It would be very difficult for May to take the riding as a Green/Liberal - it would require that virtually all of the Liberal vote will flock like sheep to the Greens (in fact many may bolt to the Tories or the NDP and most of the NDP vote would collapse to support May (also not likely).
A smarter move for May would have been to run against John Baird (she lives in Ottawa after all), I think.
A smarter move for May would have been to run against John Baird (she lives in Ottawa after all), I think.