The fate of the Lawrence stop will likely be decided at the 30% design vote. If the vote comes after the election it will be a key topic highlighted to Scarborough voters. Many subway supporters are currently quite upset we are building this line with only one stop. And it has nothing to do with anyone wanting LRT. I expect it to be a close vote and for it to pass it will mean some councilors will have to soften their stance to make the best put of a bad situation. Even if they don't build it initially it still needs to be roughed in and that wont happen without the support to add it into the design. Currently it is not. Coin flip odds it gets added in.
I hope that both the Lawrence East and the Sheppard / McCowan stations are added back. But, I can see John Tory, or whoever becomes the next mayor, being reluctant to put the issue to another vote.
Opponents of SSE make a sizeable minority on the Council. If the YES vote gets split between those who want more stops, and those who don't want to spend more money, then the opponents get a chance to either derail or delay the whole project. If that happened, then the mayor would get stuck with no clear path at all (the SLRT plan is likely not workable any more without modifications, due to the space constraints).
I'd like to see them trying to get more federal money for this project. Currently, the federal contirbution stands at $660 million out of the $3,400 million total cost. If the federal contribution went up to 40%, that would be about $1,250 million extra; should be enough to restore both lost stops.
Not sure though if the project started before the latest federal announcement is still eligible.
Sheppard line is getting built. The only question is when? My guess is an extension it unlikely to happen during with this construction of the SSE but will be discussed at election time to help push the Lawrence stop thru possibly. It may be more likely to occur around the same time or just following the DRL long with a package with Sheppard West. This line was pretty much a done deal once the LRT was "postponed" and the BDL extension to SSE only give the Sheppard line more support as a loop. The support for this loop is pretty large in Scarborough. The Province is fully aware of this and not sure there isn't enough savings to warrant another battle over a transfer technology, which unlike the SSE the battle been had and has time to plan accordingly.
Sheppard subway extension will not happen for a while. Furthermore, when the time comes to deal with the Sheppard corridor, I am not sure that a full-fledged subway is the best answer. I get it that the riders don't want a transfer at Don Mills, and therefore a low-floor LRT may not be the best answer either.
We should at least consider a high-floor LRT option, and a mini / ICTS type subway option with a smaller footprint and cheaper construction (and the transfer at Don Mills eliminated).