Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[hw621]

I'm sure he will - they'll just cancel something else.

Do the rest of us have the stomach to fund it? I think we know the answer to that question.

"Downtown has enough subway" comes to mind...

 

[Streety McCarface]

Indeed. I'm not sure he has the stomach to actually fund his plan.

3 stop SSE + Line 2 prerequisites is a $8B plan; with about $6B of that coming from the province and around $5B requires new money (his entire 10 year subway budget) with very little to show for it.

Of course, a bit of EA work + deferring is almost free.

How will it cost an extra 3.5 billion to reconfigure line 2? Scarborough subway trains are supposed to be stored in tail tracks, signal upgrades will cost at most a 1.5 billion dollars (line 2 is about 4 Km shorter than the then line 1), and new rolling stock should only cost 1 billion dollars. It’s arguably unfair to even group these with the sse (which, admittedly, at this stage, is getting out of hand) since they are required (along with the Kipling yard) regardless if the extension is built or not.

 

[Leo_Chan]

I kind of asked the above, but it's still to be determined.

 

[robmausser]

I kind of asked the above, but it's still to be determined.
View attachment 149668

The answer is no.

The Spadina Extension has the ability to work in ATC mode and manual fixed block. And so will the SSE.

So they could potentially run the entire system in fixed block mode with the current T1 cars and some new TR cars all in fixed block mode until they replace the entire fleet with TRs.

The only reason the Sheppard subway got TRs is that they are planning to run the entire Line 1 in ATC mode come end of 2019, and they don't want to have to interrupt the ATC mode on Line 1 to bring T1 cars down back to Davisville yard.

You can run parts of a system in ATC mode like we are doing on Line 1 right now from Eglinton West to Vaughan MC.

You can also run the entire system on fixed block mode, they've had to shut the ATC off a couple of times on the extension and the converted part on Line 1 (Eglinton West to Sheppard West) due to teething problems. Fixed block manual mode is always available as a backup, even on newer extensions.

 

[skiier]

The Spadina Extension has the ability to work in ATC mode and manual fixed block. And so will the SSE.

You can run parts of a system in ATC mode like we are doing on Line 1 right now from Eglinton West to Vaughan MC.

The Spadina Extension has a block system? There are no signals along the track with the exception of the areas where tracks diverge.

Also, I don't think ATC has been used south of Sheppard West since the 2 week trial last Fall. Every-time I drive on the Allen the ATC signals have garbage bags covering them while the block signals are active

EDIT: Just found this article (from the 2 week trial last year ) that states ATC won't be turned back on until this Fall: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tr...-signalling-system-exceeded-expectations.html

 

[syn]

How will it cost an extra 3.5 billion to reconfigure line 2? Scarborough subway trains are supposed to be stored in tail tracks, signal upgrades will cost at most a 1.5 billion dollars (line 2 is about 4 Km shorter than the then line 1), and new rolling stock should only cost 1 billion dollars. It’s arguably unfair to even group these with the sse (which, admittedly, at this stage, is getting out of hand) since they are required (along with the Kipling yard) regardless if the extension is built or not.

Have you not been paying attention?

The last estimate for a three stop subway was $4.6 billion, and that's quite an old estimate. Like the one stop plan, it's likely to cost much, much more at this point.

We seem to forget how quickly the three stop plan ($4 billion in 2016, deemed financially infeasible) was reduced to one stop, which was 'only' going to cost $2 billion. That one stop solution has now essentially doubled in price, and costs as much as the three stop solution did a few years ago.

$8 billion for three stops doesn't seem at all unreasonable given the extreme cost increases this project has undergone in a relatively short period of time.

 

[hw621]

Have you not been paying attention?

The last estimate for a three stop subway was $4.6 billion, and that's quite an old estimate. Like the one stop plan, it's likely to cost much, much more at this point.

We seem to forget how quickly the three stop plan ($4 billion in 2016, deemed financially infeasible) was reduced to one stop, which was 'only' going to cost $2 billion. That one stop solution has now essentially doubled in price, and costs as much as the three stop solution did a few years ago.

$8 billion for three stops doesn't seem at all unreasonable given the extreme cost increases this project has undergone in a relatively short period of time.

I wonder what is causing the sensational cost increase.

 

[JSF-1]

I wonder what is causing the sensational cost increase.

I would guess a large chunk of it is from the tunneling. Tunneling alone is already expensive but Deep Bore tunneling is just strapping a rocket to the cost. The only way around this would be to cross the Highland Creek at surface level but the question becomes where? The McCowan alignment does not facility such possibility.

 

[rbt]

The Spadina Extension has a block system?

Yes, the "output" is in-cab. T1s still can't use it, despite being fixed-block, without modifications.

Every moving block system has a fixed-block alternative calculation that it falls back to when input from the trains isn't available (or disabled).

 

[micheal_can]

The original Subway in Toronto was cut and cover. Notice how we got away from that? Notice how it is still the least expensive way of building?

 

[44 North]

I wonder what is causing the sensational cost increase.

Something stupid was afoot. Possibly the original decision to go with a single bore continuous tunnel *before* the alignment was chosen. A decision likely made with good intentions under the assumption that it would lower costs and make the project easier/quicker/less expropritation. They then whittled down an alignment that has a couple of undulations, requiring significant depth to carry-forward the (effectively set in stone) plan for single bore, rendering that initial assumption a poor one.

I'm almost certain costs can be lowered, and we can get an inline Lawrence station. This can be done by starting over, perhaps opting for twin bore, staying closer to the surface, extracting midline north and south of Highland, then building a bridge/Old Mill-type station for Lawrence (maybe some expropriation). It shouldn't be fantasy talk to say there are ways to lower the costs when it's obvious there are ways, but unfortunately it is.

 

[syn]

Something stupid was afoot. Possibly the original decision to go with a single bore continuous tunnel *before* the alignment was chosen. A decision likely made with good intentions under the assumption that it would lower costs and make the project easier/quicker/less expropritation. They then whittled down an alignment that has a couple of undulations, requiring significant depth to carry-forward the (effectively set in stone) plan for single bore, rendering that initial assumption a poor one.

I'm almost certain costs can be lowered, and we can get an inline Lawrence station. This can be done by starting over, perhaps opting for twin bore, staying closer to the surface, extracting midline north and south of Highland, then building a bridge/Old Mill-type station for Lawrence (maybe some expropriation). It shouldn't be fantasy talk to say there are ways to lower the costs when it's obvious there are ways, but unfortunately it is.

There's another, simpler reason to consider - the numbers originally given were not based on any real planning, best case estimates based on little knowledge of anything. As planning for it proceeds and reality sets in, the costs rise accordingly.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Have you not been paying attention?

The last estimate for a three stop subway was $4.6 billion, and that's quite an old estimate. Like the one stop plan, it's likely to cost much, much more at this point.

We seem to forget how quickly the three stop plan ($4 billion in 2016, deemed financially infeasible) was reduced to one stop, which was 'only' going to cost $2 billion. That one stop solution has now essentially doubled in price, and costs as much as the three stop solution did a few years ago.

$8 billion for three stops doesn't seem at all unreasonable given the extreme cost increases this project has undergone in a relatively short period of time.

I didn't think I'd have to explain this but it seems as though I have to...

The initial reference in 'total price' for the 3-stop Scarborough Subway extension was 8 billion dollars. As you said, the three stop subway would cost 4.6 billion dollars. 8-4.6=3.4, I used 3.5 for simplicity sake. In other words, 3.5 billion dollars are required to install ATC on line 2 and to renew the rolling stock. I said this number was off because it would cost at most 2 billion dollars for this and these ancillary costs should not be included in the cost of the SSE because they would be required regardless of whether the SSE is actually built.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

We should not be spending 5 billion on a one stop subway. Build both Bloor and Sheppard above ground.

 

[syn]

I didn't think I'd have to explain this but it seems as though I have to...

The initial reference in 'total price' for the 3-stop Scarborough Subway extension was 8 billion dollars. As you said, the three stop subway would cost 4.6 billion dollars. 8-4.6=3.4, I used 3.5 for simplicity sake. In other words, 3.5 billion dollars are required to install ATC on line 2 and to renew the rolling stock. I said this number was off because it would cost at most 2 billion dollars for this and these ancillary costs should not be included in the cost of the SSE because they would be required regardless of whether the SSE is actually built.

You're missing the point.

The $4.6 billion quote is based on old numbers. That base price for the previous option is no doubt much, much higher now. Just as the $2 billion one stop extension is now $4+ billion.[/QUOTE]