Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

For various reasons, a single-deck EMU with four pairs of exits (like a subway train) will likely provide a greater maximum capacity than a double-decker EMU with two pairs of exits, as long as the trains are operated at higher frequencies.There's a reason why you'd be hard pressed to find any metro systems in the world running with double-decker trains.

But for lower frequency service, the double-deckers will provide greater capacity.

Double-deckers make most sense when the track time is shared with freight and/or with express rail service. Double-deckers take more time to load / unload at the major stations (almost certainly having bypass tracks), but then they occupy just one time slot en route between stations, instead of two slots for single-level trains.

 

[syn]

For everyone who thinks the SSE cost will rise, there's a very good reason for that:

John Tory’s favoured Scarborough subway was ‘drawn on the back of a napkin’ when council chose it over LRT, critics charge

The supposedly researched estimate (according to Tory) was based, in part, on napkin sketches. This is exactly why $3.35 billion is nowhere near what this thing will cost - all of the estimates thus far are based on nonsense. When they're forced to do some actual work and reality sets in, the cost rises accordingly.

As SSE planning moves beyond napkins, it seems obvious the cost will be much closer to the $5 billion city staff estimated as the high ceiling for this absurd project.

 

[cplchanb]

For everyone who thinks the SSE cost will rise, there's a very good reason for that:

John Tory’s favoured Scarborough subway was ‘drawn on the back of a napkin’ when council chose it over LRT, critics charge

The supposedly researched estimate (according to Tory) was based, in part, on napkin sketches. This is exactly why $3.35 billion is nowhere near what this thing will cost - all of the estimates thus far are based on nonsense. When they're forced to do some actual work and reality sets in, the cost rises accordingly.

As SSE planning moves beyond napkins, it seems obvious the cost will be much closer to the $5 billion city staff estimated as the high ceiling for this absurd project.

Can someone explain just why digging this short extension is so damn expensive and more importantly why they can't control the number? Even for inflation I'm sure the cost just can't go up by over a billion in just a few years. Why is building subways here so expensive vs other parts of the world???

 

[Amare]

If this subway extension costs anywhere close to $5 billion, Tory should lose his job immediately via some kind of referendum. Forget about subway projects, it would easily be one of the most asinine infrastructure projects in the world. How anyone in their right mind could justify that kind of ridiculous cost for a 1-stop (longest continuous subway tunnel in the world) is beyond me.

 

[syn]

If this subway extension costs anywhere close to $5 billion, Tory should lose his job immediately via some kind of referendum. Forget about subway projects, it would easily be one of the most asinine infrastructure projects in the world. How anyone in their right mind could justify that kind of ridiculous cost for a 1-stop (longest continuous subway tunnel in the world) is beyond me.

We're already at about $4 billion so he's not that far off.

 

[syn]

Can someone explain just why digging this short extension is so damn expensive and more importantly why they can't control the number? Even for inflation I'm sure the cost just can't go up by over a billion in just a few years. Why is building subways here so expensive vs other parts of the world???

Well, it's actually not that short. At 6.2km it's the same distance from Union to St Clair, or Keele Station to Bloor-Yonge. There also seem to be some geographic/geologic difficulties that make tunneling in Scarborough difficult.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Can someone explain just why digging this short extension is so damn expensive and more importantly why they can't control the number? Even for inflation I'm sure the cost just can't go up by over a billion in just a few years. Why is building subways here so expensive vs other parts of the world???

Because all the construction workers are taken. They're all building overpriced condos, sewer lines, LRT lines in Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Subway lines on Eglinton, and Keele (TYSSE), etc. With no workers, they have to bring in workers from other parts of Canada (outsourcing from other countries isn't allowed). Seeing how almost all of Canada is seeing an economic boom in construction, workers wages are going up significantly. There are laws in place to force more workers on site than necessary.

The line is extremely deep, so all stations and emergency exits are going to be extraordinarily expensive to build.

Construction materials are getting much better, however, they're getting much more expensive as a result.

Geography makes tunnelling difficult.

There are many obstacles that require expensive subway building

It's actually a very long line, around 7 km. The fact that it doesn't have 2 infill stations is what baffles me.


We're going to have to deal with this for a long time. Sure, 1.65B was kind of a lowball, but it was a fair initial estimation because 6.2km *0.25 B (per km) = 1.55B$. As it goes right now, the price per km of tunnel is hovering at around 0.6 Billion dollars, which is insane. Bear in mind, though, that Crossrail in London is being built for 15 Billion Pounds. Assume 5 billion go to the rest of the line (TFL rail and rolling stock), that leaves 10 billion pounds (~18-20B CAD) for 21 km of tunnels. That equates to ~860$ CAD per kilometer. Construction isn't as cheap elsewhere in the world as people may think it is, subways or light rail.

 

[micheal_can]

Because all the construction workers are taken. They're all building overpriced condos, sewer lines, LRT lines in Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Subway lines on Eglinton, and Keele (TYSSE), etc. With no workers, they have to bring in workers from other parts of Canada (outsourcing from other countries isn't allowed). Seeing how almost all of Canada is seeing an economic boom in construction, workers wages are going up significantly. There are laws in place to force more workers on site than necessary.

The line is extremely deep, so all stations and emergency exits are going to be extraordinarily expensive to build.

Construction materials are getting much better, however, they're getting much more expensive as a result.

Geography makes tunnelling difficult.

There are many obstacles that require expensive subway building

It's actually a very long line, around 7 km. The fact that it doesn't have 2 infill stations is what baffles me.

Why did the TYSSE cost less than 4 billion yet have more stations and more than 1km longer?

 

[Streety McCarface]

Why did the TYSSE cost less than 4 billion yet have more stations and more than 1km longer?

TYSSE was approved back in like 2008, and back then, I don't think construction was as prevalent as it is today (there was no Eglinton Crosstown, the condo boom wasn't as big, inflation, the Canadian Dollar wasn't in the shitter, etc).

 

[syn]

The condo market was booming throughout the 2000s.

This is a poorly planned idea, in an area not really suited to subways. Let's stop pretending it's because there's other construction happening elsewhere.

 

[Rainforest]

If this subway extension costs anywhere close to $5 billion, Tory should lose his job immediately via some kind of referendum. Forget about subway projects, it would easily be one of the most asinine infrastructure projects in the world. How anyone in their right mind could justify that kind of ridiculous cost for a 1-stop (longest continuous subway tunnel in the world) is beyond me.

Go ahead, book a referendum, and prepare to lose.

 

[Rainforest]

Of course, estimates for Transit City lines were made a lot more diligently than SSE estimates. There is no way the cost could balloon from $6 billion for 7 lines to $11 billion for 4 lines.

 

[EastYorkTTCFan]

Go ahead, book a referendum, and prepare to lose.

It's possible that this year coming municipal election could be one depending on how many of the current councillors get reelected.

 

[Rainforest]

It's possible that this year coming municipal election could be one depending on how many of the current councillors get reelected.

Let's see, but generally it is hard to characterize municipal elections as a referendum on one single issue. There are many issues at hand, and in addition, the wards are not aligned. Residents of every ward tend to vote the way that benefits their neighborhoud most.

I think it is fair to say that if the residents did not vote en masse against some project, then they either support that project, or do not consider it too important.

 

[EastYorkTTCFan]

Let's see, but generally it is hard to characterize municipal elections as a referendum on one single issue. There are many issues at hand, and in addition, the wards are not aligned. Residents of every ward tend to vote the way that benefits their neighborhoud most.

I think it is fair to say that if the residents did not vote en masse against some project, then they either support that project, or do not consider it too important.

Very true I just wish that people wouldn't blindly elect councillors without seeing how they perform in council or on various boards. For example there are one or two on the TTC board that I even wonder if they have ever even been on the TTC.