Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The funny thing is, the Skytrain goes through several different cites.

It's embarrassing. They just opened the Port Moody extension and I'm just shocked at how fast everything is getting done there.

So if you don't want a new way of doing things, you want the 1 stop subway.
Either Either go back in time and don't make the deal to remove Ford at all costs (and abandon the connected SRT/ECLRT), or we accept the 1 stop subway, or, we find a new way of doing things.

The connected LRT was the best plan.

TigerMaster, thanks for the links.

I have to say that your interpretation of those data is not correct.

The TTC current ridership document counts all riders that use Line 3 (SRT), i.e. ridersh travelling in either direction. It gives a typical daily ridership of 38,810 (in 2014).

But the first table in the SSE document says that "Subway boardings, Scarborough Centre Station (passengers/day)" is 30,800. That is, they do not count riders going in the opposite direction (disembarking at STC).

In order to make those two numbers comparable, we need to multiply the SSE projection by the factor of 2 (90+ % of riders will take the same route in 2 opposite directions during the day).

Then, we get 61,600 (projection) for SSE versus 38,810 for the existing SRT; a growth of 58%.

Of course, it would make more sense to compare the projection for SSE to the projection for extended SRT, and in that case the diff should be much smaller (the extended SRT might even have a slightly higher ridership).

In any case, the suggestion that SSE is going to cause a decrease in ridership is disproven, even though a few other posters rushed to jeer about it hoping that they found yet another flaw in this project.

And even now, they still want to turn every train back. So why is the TTC talking out of both sides of their mouths? I don't believe it will be as low as 30k, but 60k is a pipe dream.

Precisely.

One desires logic, rationality and intelligence to inform decision-making, and accordingly opposes vote-buying exercises like the SSE, while the other panders, distorts, and plays immature mind games, all to feed the Respect the Suburbs pathology.

I'll let you decide who is who.

And I'll let you predict which of them will win.

Rainforest, you'll never get tired of being the centrist haha. I support the subway (for now, but pstogios right on this.

Keep drinking the kool-aid. The guy who cant compromise and continues to try to dictate what get built in another area against decades of debate and preference all based on one sided "facts". Matlow and his ilk come off knowledgeable to their faithful. But he doesn't represent Scarborough nor does he care to listen or compromises with the intelligent people from Scarborough. Their was an intelligent other side of this debate that had been ignored. So...

After all this time and they are still that determined to dictate what happens in another area, they deserve the Political chaos they've created. This is what has happened. You don't get an extreme Mayor without a reason.

And these people are so use to controlling the narrative they don't realize they are just making matter worse but not compromising. Even Robby gave them a compromise but they thought they were in denial

If the province cancels this, what are you going to say though? If they don't want to pay for it, you can't really do anything. You can't pencil out the a soon to be 4 billion dollar subway.

 

[OneCity]

It's embarrassing. They just opened the Port Moody extension and I'm just shocked at how fast

If the province cancels this, what are you going to say though? If they don't want to pay for it, you can't really do anything. You can't pencil out the a soon to be 4 billion dollar subway.

They wouldn't. The cost is basically the same for them and this isnt the "Common sense revolution" coming in. PB has already expressed support, and has little to no interest in LRT. Only the City will cancel, thats the only hope for those still hoping.

I think your only going to get a bigger subway by fighting to be honest as Doug and PB will team up to gain power together. And if the Liberals somehow sneak back in were all likely to be subway rich all the way to Sudbury

 

[sixrings]

Sure sounds like you have had your own share of Kool aid. No one knows the future but we do know that PC's have had their fair share of cuts in the past.

They wouldn't. The cost is basically the same for them and this isnt the "Common sense revolution" coming in. PB has already expressed support, and has little to no interest in LRT. Only the City will cancel, that the only hope for those still hoping.

And I think your only going to get a bigger subway by fighting to be honest as Doug and PB will team up.

 

[OneCity]

Sure sounds like you have had your own share of Kool aid. No one knows the future but we do know that PC's have had their fair share of cuts in the past.

Sorry I added the Liberals part after and ive always said I NEVER count out the Provincial Liberals, But that changes nothing on the subway front. Only adds IMO.

In any event Doug and PB will be partnering around subways in Toronto and the "little guy" everywhere. Im not drinking the Kool aid im just describing the Political reality. At this point I still expect Tory to win a second term in Toronto unless the media chases him down and cuts their own throat. A downtown far Left candidate... well they'll do pretty good in the polls leading up but they wont do se well in the actual election in this climate

 

[goreckm]

They wouldn't. The cost is basically the same for them and this isnt the "Common sense revolution" coming in. PB has already expressed support, and has little to no interest in LRT. Only the City will cancel, thats the only hope for those still hoping.

I think your only going to get a bigger subway by fighting to be honest as Doug and PB will team up to gain power together. And if the Liberals somehow sneak back in were all likely to be subway rich all the way to Sudbury

If Ford somehow wins, we already have a playbook for dealing with one. Council takes away his transit file. Either way, I predict a gridlocked council, and likely nothing will be built for those years.

 

[OneCity]

If Ford somehow wins, we already have a playbook for dealing with one. Council takes away his transit file. Either way, I predict a gridlocked council, and likely nothing will be built for those years.

How well did that work during that term & the following election? They need a better playbook. Compromise would be a helpful addition.

 

[BurlOak]

If Ford somehow wins, we already have a playbook for dealing with one. Council takes away his transit file. Either way, I predict a gridlocked council, and likely nothing will be built for those years.

The last last council took transit away from Ford, it costs us a couple of Billion dollars and a wasted a half decade.
Would they do the same thing again?

Of course they would!

 

[BurlOak]

How well did that work during that term & the following election? They need a better playbook. Compromise would be a helpful addition.

PlayBook worked perfectly. It got Ford defeated. All Councillors got re-elected. T got their left wing Liberal all as a majority.

Once you realize realize the goal of the last 5 years, you realize just how well Councillors and MPP's did in achieving their goals.

 

[Rainforest]

And even now, they still want to turn every train back. So why is the TTC talking out of both sides of their mouths? I don't believe it will be as low as 30k, but 60k is a pipe dream.

That 60k estimate feels a bit too large, but it shouldn't be dramatically lower than that.

We can cross-check by comparing the peak ridership to total daily ridership for two similar lines: Line 3 (existing SRT) and Line 4 (Sheppard subway). They are similar in the sense that > 90% of their riders travel to/from the busiest station (Kennedy on Line 3 and Sheppard-Yonge on Line 4).

For Sheppard subway (2014): daily ridership 47,680, peak about 5,500, ratio = 8.7.

For SRT: daily ridership 38,810, peak about 5,500, ratio = 7.1.

So, we can expect that ratio to be somewhere between 7 and 8 for SSE. If the peak projection is 7,300, then daily should be between 51,000 and 58,000.

Regarding the idea of turning every 2-nd train back, I think it makes perfect sense, at least during the morning rush. The capacity is still there; a train every 6 min means 10 trains per hour, and that's enough for 10,000 riders per hour in each direction.

 

[WislaHD]

And then watch the conservatives try to get out it as well. Instead of two subway, there might be zero, all because of the way things are done.

The PC's can point at the exuberant cost of the Scarborough subway the provincial Liberals have given us, campaign on upgrading the SRT for $430 million ($360m in 2006 adjusted for inflation), and sell it to the rest of the province as massive cost-savings from a fiscally conservative party.

And the PC's would be absolutely correct.

They don't need Scarborough or Toronto votes for that matter. They can campaign on not spending billions of dollars in Toronto (for the rest of the province, Scarborough may as well be downtown Toronto) and sell themselves as the fiscally responsible party.

And the PC's wouldn't be wrong.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

They wouldn't. The cost is basically the same for them and this isnt the "Common sense revolution" coming in. PB has already expressed support, and has little to no interest in LRT. Only the City will cancel, thats the only hope for those still hoping.

I think your only going to get a bigger subway by fighting to be honest as Doug and PB will team up to gain power together. And if the Liberals somehow sneak back in were all likely to be subway rich all the way to Sudbury

Ontario has fiscal problems up the wazoo. PB is trying to win votes and associating with ford will piss off women in the 905. He's running to be premier of the province. Mike Harris was for Sheppard until he wasn't. Look I support this, but I realize many people don't and that is inside and outside of the city. If the tories find a chance to cut and run? They will.

 

[Hopkins123]

Let's just vote for the party that puts up firm commitments to fund 80% of the construction costs and call it a day.

With Toronto's limited tax base we shouldn't be expected to pay one-third.

 

[micheal_can]

Instead of voting for the party that says they will pay for it, why not vote for the one that says HOW they will pay for it in our current financial constraints? Oh, right, they won't say it.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The PC's can point at the exuberant cost of the Scarborough subway the provincial Liberals have given us, campaign on upgrading the SRT for $430 million ($360m in 2006 adjusted for inflation), and sell it to the rest of the province as massive cost-savings from a fiscally conservative party.

And the PC's would be absolutely correct.

They don't need Scarborough or Toronto votes for that matter. They can campaign on not spending billions of dollars in Toronto (for the rest of the province, Scarborough may as well be downtown Toronto) and sell themselves as the fiscally responsible party.

And the PC's wouldn't be wrong.

Exactly. I so agree with this. I hope they go back to the drawing board on this subway and do elevated. There is no way this thing should be built underground.

That 60k estimate feels a bit too large, but it shouldn't be dramatically lower than that.

We can cross-check by comparing the peak ridership to total daily ridership for two similar lines: Line 3 (existing SRT) and Line 4 (Sheppard subway). They are similar in the sense that > 90% of their riders travel to/from the busiest station (Kennedy on Line 3 and Sheppard-Yonge on Line 4).

For Sheppard subway (2014): daily ridership 47,680, peak about 5,500, ratio = 8.7.

For SRT: daily ridership 38,810, peak about 5,500, ratio = 7.1.

So, we can expect that ratio to be somewhere between 7 and 8 for SSE. If the peak projection is 7,300, then daily should be between 51,000 and 58,000.

Regarding the idea of turning every 2-nd train back, I think it makes perfect sense, at least during the morning rush. The capacity is still there; a train every 6 min means 10 trains per hour, and that's enough for 10,000 riders per hour in each direction.

They will be turning it back all day. Hedways will probably be 10 min at some point and then the fight will be why aren't there enough subways coming to us? The SRT corridor allays much of these problems. McCowan makes things worse.

 

[nfitz]

For those riders who want to get downtown (that's downtown Toronto, bypassing downtown Scarborough), they could board SmartTrack at Lawrence or Ellesmere (current neighbourhoods served by the SRT). That's where the "rider loss" may happen.

No, that wasn't it.

Someone, somewhere, was making out that the total predicted ridership at Scarborough Centre for the subway, is actually less than current (or is it when it peaked a few years ago) for the SRT.

Though I did notice that the total for 1-station subway is now less than the fully-funded SRT LRT option. Previously they'd compared the LRT to the 3-station subway option and subway was higher - but dropping to 1 station has dropped below the LRT level, now that the numbers are in. They were pretty quiet about that.