Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[BurlOak]

Read the link that was provided - http://www.metrolinx.com/en/docs/pdf/board_agenda/20100519/Five_in_Ten_Board_web.pdf - it provides both the $1.4 billion number in 2008 dollars, and the escalated number, in the year of spending at $2.465 billion. If you look at the cash flows, it's not two years of spending - the spending peaks in 2019/2020 ... that's 12 years of inflation, not 2 (for the peak spending year).

If you go run the numbers, you'll see that the document uses a construction price index of 4% (which is pretty typical). So then you can calculate the actual 2008$ of the $2.465 based on year of spending, and you get about $1.7 billion. So the price seems to have gone up from about $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion. At the same time though Finch seems to have dropped from $1.2 billion to $0.9 billion.

So if the escalated cost has now dropped to $2.3 billion, then the cost in 2008$ must now be less than $1.7 billion ... somewhere in $1.5 to $1.6 billion I'd guess. Or the money is being spent earlier (which isn't how these projects normally work )

But according to the TTC report to Commision (table on page 16), the LRT cost is in 2011 dollars, not escalating dollars.

so either;
1) they are comparing escalated dollars for LRT to current (or 2011) dollars for subway, just to make subway look better, OR,
2) the LRT cost has climbed to $2.3B in 2011 dollars.

Reading the TTC response, it is clearly written the second way.

 

[rbt]

Hey, if they can find a link to support their claim that a yet to be built vehicle is going to be faster than the current Mark Is or IIs then I'll apologize to them. But my firm belief is that they are making up "facts" to support their argument.

You can engineer a train that will go from 0 to 80km/h in 3 seconds (lots of sand). Electric motors long ago passed the abilities of passengers to stand during acceleration/decelleration.

Ultimately, train speeds are limited by the passenger safety, track geometry, and your energy budget.

 

[nfitz]

But according to the TTC report to Commision (table on page 16), the LRT cost is in 2011 dollars, not escalating dollars.

Oh, now that's an interesting twist.

so either;
1) they are comparing escalated dollars for LRT to current (or 2011) dollars for subway, just to make subway look better, OR,
2) the LRT cost has climbed to $2.3B in 2011 dollars.

Or someone has simply made a mistake. Perhaps someone has added the cost of the Sheppard East Maintenance facility, which Metrolinx has under the Sheppard East budget, to the RT conversion/extension, to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

Tough to say ... and no real indication that TTC is any more privy to the current Metrolinx costs than the rest of us.

Does seem a little odd though ...

 

[gweed123]

Oh, now that's an interesting twist.

Or someone has simply made a mistake. Perhaps someone has added the cost of the Sheppard East Maintenance facility, which Metrolinx has under the Sheppard East budget, to the RT conversion/extension, to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

Tough to say ... and no real indication that TTC is any more privy to the current Metrolinx costs than the rest of us.

Does seem a little odd though ...

If anyone happens to be in a position to get some clarification on that, it would be greatly appreciated. It does certainly seem odd.

 

[ssiguy2]

How in god's name is a simple conversion going to cost $1.4 billion when Vancouver is building a complete grade separated 11km Rapid Transit corridor which will include all stations/bays, vehicles, and a 1 km underground tunnel thru the most expensive real estate in the country in a earthquake zone for the same amount of money?

I still haven't heard a logical answer to the basic question.......why are they converting it in the first place. Toronto rapid transit system is small enough as it is and to spend this much money to not even expand it is obscene borderline criminal. Why not do what everyother city on the planet does when the system is slowing down.......fix the line and buy new trains. I know that may not be the ribbon cutting the TTC is hoping for but would save a "little" money and wouldn't bring the entire system to a grinding halt for 2 {which everyone knows will become 4} years.

Also before you talk about the smow, it hasn't been a problem in South Korea or at JFK which can get as cold and snowy as Toronto and Vancouver can get some pounding itself. This would also save having to build a new maintenance/garage/control centre and the savings could be used to elevate the line from Kennedy to DM and have a continous rapid transit system that would be cheaper to run as it could be automated. Remember this is what Metrolinx originally wanted to do before Miller got his hands on it.

As I also have stated the conversion to LRT is also going to be the most expensive and time consuming of any of the options {standard Metro, monorail, or maintaining the SkyTrain} as it, unlike the others will require raising the roof on the current stations to accomodate the catenary lines.

It seems Toronto is spending a small fortune for no other reason than make sure no one has to cross the street for a transfer.

I can honestly say I can't think of any advantage to an LRT conversion.

 

[nfitz]

How in god's name is a simple conversion going to cost $1.4 billion when Vancouver is building a complete grade separated 11km Rapid Transit corridor which will include all stations/bays, vehicles, and a 1 km underground tunnel thru the most expensive real estate in the country in a earthquake zone for the same amount of money?

God's name? How is that relevant? Which god?

You are not paying attention though. It's not a simple conversion. That would be a fraction of the price. Much of the cost is for the extension, and for the construction of a new underground station at Kennedy.

 

[k10ery]

But according to the TTC report to Commision (table on page 16), the LRT cost is in 2011 dollars, not escalating dollars.

so either;
1) they are comparing escalated dollars for LRT to current (or 2011) dollars for subway, just to make subway look better, OR,
2) the LRT cost has climbed to $2.3B in 2011 dollars.

Reading the TTC response, it is clearly written the second way.

It's escalated 2011 dollars. So I think there is no inconsistency:

- Metrolinx says the cost is $1.8B if built in 2010.
- At 4.5% construction inflation, that's $2.7B 2019 dollars when it's actually built.
- At 2% CPI inflation, that's $2.3B real escalated 2011 dollars as reported by TTC.

 

[BurlOak]

God's name? How is that relevant? Which god?

You are not paying attention though. It's not a simple conversion. That would be a fraction of the price. Much of the cost is for the extension, and for the construction of a new underground station at Kennedy.

Yeah ssiguy2, haven't you been paying attention. I looks like the $1.4B has escalated to somewhere between $1.8B (http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tra...threatens-to-reopen-scarborough-subway-debate) and $2.3B (http://ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Commiss...upplementary_Reports/Response_to_Commissi.pdf)

Plus you also have to consider that they have to build an extra Station at Kennedy instead of using the one station for both ECLRT and SRT.

 

[snowystar]

Fixed...

How in god's name is a simple conversion going to cost $1.8-$2.3 billion when Vancouver is building a complete grade separated 11km Rapid Transit corridor which will include all stations/bays, vehicles, and a 2.3 km underground tunnel thru somewhat expensive real estate in the country in a earthquake zone for less amount of money? (The houses that the line is tunneling under are mostly in the 500k~750k range.. not that expensive...)

[...]

Also before you talk about the snow, it hasn't been a problem in Beijing or at JFK which can get as cold and snowy as Toronto and Vancouver can get some pounding itself. This would also save having to build a new maintenance/garage/control centre and the savings could be used to elevate the line from Kennedy to DM and have a continous rapid transit system that would be cheaper to run as it could be automated. Remember this is what Metrolinx originally wanted to do before Miller got his hands on it. (The South Korean line have not opened yet due to.. um.. corruption? It is slated to open this year)

[...]

I say many of the Vancouver's problem are not because of the snow, but mostly due to freezing rain or freezing of rain water when temperature fluctuate above or below freezing. The area around the SkyBridge (where the Expo and Millennium line splits off and where most of the problem occurs) always seems to be raining where everywhere else is snowing when the temperature is still below zero. Probably because its above a major river...

 

[BurlOak]

It's escalated 2011 dollars. So I think there is no inconsistency:

- Metrolinx says the cost is $1.8B if built in 2010.
- At 4.5% construction inflation, that's $2.7B 2019 dollars when it's actually built.
- At 2% CPI inflation, that's $2.3B real escalated 2011 dollars as reported by TTC.

There is still an inconsitency. If this logic was used to derive the LRT cost, than the same should be used for subway.

If subway built in 2019 then the $2.8B would increase to $4.2B. Then using the 2% CPI, it would be $3.6B in 2011 dollars.

Or is the TTC saying that this subway could be built now for $2.2B (or $280/km), which would work out to 2.8B in 2019. This would be less than the Spadina subway which is being done 5 years earlier.

 

[nfitz]

Plus you also have to consider that they have to build an extra Station at Kennedy instead of using the one station for both ECLRT and SRT.

You remember of course that in the designs for the Eglinton Crosstown going to Scarborough Centre, there were two sets of platforms, so that they always had the option of running the service separately. So little has changed here.

 

[CapitalSeven]

You are not paying attention though. It's not a simple conversion. That would be a fraction of the price. Much of the cost is for the extension, and for the construction of a new underground station at Kennedy.

That doesn't sound convincing. The platform at Kennedy is likely to be on the mezzanine level, and so probably won't entail any new elevators or escalators, and will be just below the surface. I don't see how it could cost very much.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I can see Kennedy costing $200-300 million. The station has to be completely torn down, rebuilt, and a new entry tunnel dug from north of Kennedy. I think they will be replacing the eglinton bridge over the RT tracks as well.

 

[k10ery]

There is still an inconsitency. If this logic was used to derive the LRT cost, than the same should be used for subway.

If subway built in 2019 then the $2.8B would increase to $4.2B. Then using the 2% CPI, it would be $3.6B in 2011 dollars.

Or is the TTC saying that this subway could be built now for $2.2B (or $280/km), which would work out to 2.8B in 2019. This would be less than the Spadina subway which is being done 5 years earlier.

But the TTC estimates are always escalated.

 

[W. K. Lis]

But the TTC estimates are always escalated.

When do construction costs ever go down?