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Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

TheTigerMaster said:
The fact that the SmartTrack studies will be examining the effects of ST on all rapid transit lines, is a very strong indicator that John Tory does not support the subway extension.

Typically, Toronto/Metrolinx reports look at each transit project in isolation; ignoring the effects that one project might have on the other. This ST study is the first study in a long time to look at how the proposed project will affect other rapid transit initiatives.

John Tory isn't ignorant of the Scarborough Subway situation. He knows that, as proposed, the line is at the threshold of being unviable due to low ridership. He also knows that ST will without a doubt divert a signifiant amount of riders away from the subway. If John Tory supported the Scarborough Subway, the ST report would have looked at ST in isolation, not examining its effects on the subway or any other rapid transit lines. This ST report very much looks like an attempt to undermine the credibility of the subway extension.
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It was pretty clear to me that his support of the Scarborough Subway during the election campaign (as well as his support for the Sheppard and Finch LRTs) was very much a "don't rock the boat" play on his part. It's pretty clear to most people who have even a decent understanding of transportation planning that SmartTrack along the Stouffville corridor is going to pretty significantly reduce the demand on any parallel corridors within a few KMs of it. John Tory knows that.

My bet right now is that Tory is working on something in the background to create a SmartTrack-centred plan for Scarborough. I think it will play out like this:

1) It will be clearly stated that SmartTrack along the Stouffville corridor makes the Scarborough Subway alignment as currently planned unworkable due to a lack of ridership to justify it.

2) This lack of ridership will justify a change in plans (moving it to Markham Road was mentioned), which will bring with it an increase in costs.

3) Tory will play the "we have a responsibility to the taxpayers" card regarding the cost increase.

4) Tory presents an "alternative solution" which involves a SmartTrack centred plan, which is really the plan he wanted all along, but couldn't present without during the campaign without appearing to anti-subway.

At least that's what I'm hoping will happen...
 
gweed123 said:
My bet right now is that Tory is working on something in the background to create a SmartTrack-centred plan for Scarborough. I think it will play out like this:

1) It will be clearly stated that SmartTrack along the Stouffville corridor makes the Scarborough Subway alignment as currently planned unworkable due to a lack of ridership to justify it.

2) This lack of ridership will justify a change in plans (moving it to Markham Road was mentioned), which will bring with it an increase in costs.

3) Tory will play the "we have a responsibility to the taxpayers" card regarding the cost increase.

4) Tory presents an "alternative solution" which involves a SmartTrack centred plan, which is really the plan he wanted all along, but couldn't present without during the campaign without appearing to anti-subway.
Click to expand...

5) The people of Scarborough want surface subways subways subways.
 
gweed123 said:
2) This lack of ridership will justify a change in plans (moving it to Markham Road was mentioned), which will bring with it an increase in costs.

3) Tory will play the "we have a responsibility to the taxpayers" card regarding the cost increase.
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Markham Road subway alignment is impossible; way too few riders.

But if it was somehow possible, it would not necessarily lead to a cost increase.

One can just make it shorter, and either keep the cost the same or even decrease it.

gweed123 said:
4) Tory presents an "alternative solution" which involves a SmartTrack centred plan, which is really the plan he wanted all along, but couldn't present without during the campaign without appearing to anti-subway.

At least that's what I'm hoping will happen...
Click to expand...

What is a SmartTrack centered plan?

Do we realize that the SmartTrack Phase 1 frequency totally eliminates the chance of running a branch to STC?
 
TheTigerMaster said:
I think that if SS is cancelled, people will be tired of the debates/studies and will just want something built. The SRT is shovel ready, so that's likely the plan people will prefer.
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They will never "prefer" it. Yes, they will get tired, and reluctantly accept whatever the city is willing to build.

And then they will kill any chance to raise dedicated transit funding for any other project in the city.
 
Rainforest said:
They will never "prefer" it. Yes, they will get tired, and reluctantly accept whatever the city is willing to build.

And then they will kill any chance to raise dedicated transit funding for any other project in the city.
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Says who? Finch and the Sheppard East project will be built regardless. SmartTrack will be built in some form. You over estimate how much people care. The whole city didn't even vote in december.
 
gweed123 said:
My bet right now is that Tory is working on something in the background to create a SmartTrack-centred plan for Scarborough. I think it will play out like this:

1) It will be clearly stated that SmartTrack along the Stouffville corridor makes the Scarborough Subway alignment as currently planned unworkable due to a lack of ridership to justify it.

2) This lack of ridership will justify a change in plans (moving it to Markham Road was mentioned), which will bring with it an increase in costs.

3) Tory will play the "we have a responsibility to the taxpayers" card regarding the cost increase.

4) Tory presents an "alternative solution" which involves a SmartTrack centred plan, which is really the plan he wanted all along, but couldn't present without during the campaign without appearing to anti-subway.

At least that's what I'm hoping will happen...
Click to expand...

I'm confident that this is what will happen.

Note that there are several Council votes before the subway project is finalized. The SmartTrack study, revealing how little ridership the extension has, will likely be done before those votes. Considering that the subway extension won by only 4 votes in 2013 (only 2 councillors needed to change their vote to defeat the proposal), I'd expect the low ridership would be more than enough for Council to defeat the project. Assuming that the ST study doesn't intentionally inflate usage on the subway extension, the chances of this extension being approved are low.
 
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denfromoakvillemilton said:
Says who? Finch and the Sheppard East project will be built regardless. SmartTrack will be built in some form. You over estimate how much people care. The whole city didn't even vote in december.
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You underestimate the depth of opposition to any new taxes.

Finch and Sheppard are already funded and won't be affected. And, SmartTrack will be built in some form.

But after that, once transit advocates ask the city to contribute funds for DRL or for new / extended LRT lines, Scarborough councilors will join anti-tax councilors from other parts of the city, and vote it down. They have not got their subway, now they wouldn't pay for anyone else's lines.

And there will be nothing you can do about it; Scarborough councilors may hold only 20% of the vote, but there are may other councilors that will vote against new taxes regardless of which ward they represent and which wards will benefit from the new transit line.

The city will be totally dependent on provincial / federal funding for transit expansion.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Yeah... it's not as if anyone will remember this 8 years from now.
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Tory will get re elected in 4 years unless something big happens so I guess he can run away from this during pan am

Rainforest said:
You underestimate the depth of opposition to any new taxes.

Finch and Sheppard are already funded and won't be affected. And, SmartTrack will be built in some form.

But after that, once transit advocates ask the city to contribute funds for DRL or for new / extended LRT lines, Scarborough councilors will join anti-tax councilors from other parts of the city, and vote it down. They have not got their subway, now they wouldn't pay for anyone else's lines.

And there will be nothing you can do about it; Scarborough councilors may hold only 20% of the vote, but there are may other councilors that will vote against new taxes regardless of which ward they represent and which wards will benefit from the new transit line.

The city will be totally dependent on provincial / federal funding for transit expansion.
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Then the province will jack Scarborough up. That's not a fight they want to engage in because they'll lose and it will be ugly. Plus if SmartTrack goes through, Scarborough will have something much better then the subway.
 
gweed123 said:
It was pretty clear to me that his support of the Scarborough Subway during the election campaign (as well as his support for the Sheppard and Finch LRTs) was very much a "don't rock the boat" play on his part. It's pretty clear to most people who have even a decent understanding of transportation planning that SmartTrack along the Stouffville corridor is going to pretty significantly reduce the demand on any parallel corridors within a few KMs of it. John Tory knows that.

My bet right now is that Tory is working on something in the background to create a SmartTrack-centred plan for Scarborough. I think it will play out like this:

1) It will be clearly stated that SmartTrack along the Stouffville corridor makes the Scarborough Subway alignment as currently planned unworkable due to a lack of ridership to justify it.

2) This lack of ridership will justify a change in plans (moving it to Markham Road was mentioned), which will bring with it an increase in costs.

3) Tory will play the "we have a responsibility to the taxpayers" card regarding the cost increase.

4) Tory presents an "alternative solution" which involves a SmartTrack centred plan, which is really the plan he wanted all along, but couldn't present without during the campaign without appearing to anti-subway.

At least that's what I'm hoping will happen...
Click to expand...

This process needs to be completed by the end of year. If the SmartTrack and Scarborough Subway studies continue to long, then many Councillors, and the Mayor, will be thinking of re-election and will not oppose the subway.
 
Rainforest said:
What is a SmartTrack centered plan?

Do we realize that the SmartTrack Phase 1 frequency totally eliminates the chance of running a branch to STC?
Click to expand...

I see a SmartTrack centred plan being a branch north of Ellesmere that serves STC. If STC (and maybe Centennial and Malvern) are served by SmartTrack, then the subway is not needed in that area.

That frequency is not written in stone. Tory has a 7 year timeline for SmartTrack, whereas the subway is still a decade or more away. A 15 minute frequency on each branch within the 7 year time would fulfil his promise. This could be increased to 7.5 minutes thereafter.
 
So here's the plan. With SmartTrack, we'll put the Danforth subway on the backburner. Over time, we make sure SmartTrack is just the original GO RER plan, with some extra stations - great for GTA, but no replacement for the SRT.

Then in 2018 we go back to the LRT. But we dither on that for 4 years renegotiating all the federal money and city extra tax portion, to instead be used in Scarborough for a Jacuzzi for the zebras. And then in 2022 with the SRT extended lifespan approaching expiry we simply go back to Plan A and spend $360 million (in 2006 $) for new SRT vehicles. But then after that, we start the LRT cycle all over again ... and maybe a subway ...
 
BurlOak said:
This process needs to be completed by the end of year. If the SmartTrack and Scarborough Subway studies continue to long, then many Councillors, and the Mayor, will be thinking of re-election and will not oppose the subway.
Click to expand...

When are the ST study expected to be competed? And when do we expect the next vote on Scarborough Subway?
 
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