Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[WislaHD]

I remember speculating over the summer that Tory may not actually support the Scarborough Subway after he comes into office, not after EAs are done in conjunction with his SmartTrack proposal anyway. The real question is... does John Tory have the political balls to reverse on Scarborough so soon after being elected?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm not sure where Steve is getting the idea that Tory may stop supporting the subway. I mean it's possible but it'll take some really big change in the project for that to happen. So far the $75m is actually less than the anticipation amount when the subway was approved. Tory will take a beating on the subway while he promotes "sound planning" on SmartTrack but the risk of angering the voters of Scarborough will more than likely keep the subway alive.

He could push SmartTrack as serving the same purpose as the subway.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I remember speculating over the summer that Tory may not actually support the Scarborough Subway after he comes into office, not after EAs are done in conjunction with his SmartTrack proposal anyway. The real question is... does John Tory have the political balls to reverse on Scarborough so soon after being elected?

The earlier he does it, the better. He has Council under his control, and not too many people will remember the scarb subway cancelation 4 years from now. When he's up for reelection he can say that the SmartTrack "subway" is under construction and people will be happy to see progress.

 

[WislaHD]

The earlier he does it, the better. He has Council under his control, and not too many people will remember the scarb subway cancelation 4 years from now. When he's up for reelection he can say that the SmartTrack "subway" is under construction and people will be happy to see progress.

My thoughts exactly. He has the political mandate to pursue SmartTrack, control of council and a 4 year term.

This also partially solves Tory's SmartTrack funding problem, all while keeping taxes at the inflation rate as he promised. Tory might actually be a genius.

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If we scrap the subway and go full speed ahead with SmartTrack, what does this mean for the LRT? Is it back on the table then?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

My thoughts exactly. He has the political mandate to pursue SmartTrack, control of council and a 4 year term.

This also partially solves Tory's SmartTrack funding problem, all while keeping taxes at the inflation rate as he promised. Tory might actually be a genius.

//

If we scrap the subway and go full speed ahead with SmartTrack, what does this mean for the LRT? Is it back on the table then?

Well the cheapest and quickest option is probably to go back to the LRT.

A few posts back, Gweed and Nfitz suggested alternative alignments that could be better, but I don't think there's much of an appetite to debate this right now.

 

[nfitz]

Someone remind me how many $hundred million the original extend the existing SRT stations, buy Mark II vehicles, and fix the Ellesemere curve was going to cost? Was it less than $500 million total?

Ah, here we go - original estimate was $360 million. $190 million to upgrade the line and $170 million for new vehicles (44 17-metre long Mark II cars to replace the current 28 13-metre long Mark I cars). And now with scope bloat we are $3 billion and counting, including $250 million to extend the life of the SRT until 2024!

Good grief, why don't we just spend the $360 million instead, and then we'd still have a functioning line in 2024 instead of spending $240 million for a pile of rubble and scrap metal!

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'd like to think that higher ups at the TTC are pushing for the cancelation of this project, now that we have a more reasonable mayor. The $900 Million contribution from the City could go a long way towards erasing the TTC's capital budget shortfall, or even just better funding of operations.

 

[GenerationW]

The notion that this subway was only possible under a lunatic like Ford is pretty funny considering that B-D was the centrepiece of Smitherman's transit plan.

There is no evidence the higher-ups at the TTC are doing anything about an SRT replacement other than re-negotiating the master agreement with the province to make the subway a reality.

 

[salsa]

I'm not sure where Steve is getting the idea that Tory may stop supporting the subway.

From the comments thread at the bottom of his article:

Lou: Do you have any information that suggest that the Mayor could be withdrawing his support for the project, or is this a guess on your part.

Steve: It was striking at Executive Committee that the Mayor stayed out of much of the debate, and made no move to trumpet his support for any particular plan. Couple this with his change of position on TTC fares and service, his desire to see detailed studies on transit options and his statement that during the campaign, he didn’t have all of the answers (a paraphase of a remark at Exec), and I would say that the Mayor avoiding premature commitments and leaving room for change. Any move to modify the Scarborough Subway that could significantly affect its cost give him a perfect reason to back away from the project. That’s the problem — leave the subway plan alone, and it risks being unproductive due to competition from his own SmartTrack scheme, change the subway plan, and it may not be affordable.

 

[BurlOak]

If we scrap the subway and go full speed ahead with SmartTrack, what does this mean for the LRT? Is it back on the table then?

I am not sure.

Is there room in the corridor for SRT/LRT tracks, and SmartTrack tracks?
Is there room for these tracks plus having both an SRT/LRT station, and SmartTrack station at Elllesmere, Lawrence, and Eglinton*?
* (At Eglinton (Kennedy Station), a GO station is also needed, but the SRT/LRT station may be more parallel to Eglinton).

The options seem to be:

1. If there is room, the best solution seems to be to go back to the SRT/LRT plan, and to make it sell politically, you connect the SRT to the ECLRT so Scarborough is connected without a transfer.
3. If there is no room for the necesary stations, perhaps one or both of Ellesmere and Lawrence could be dropped from the SmartTrack.
5. Alternatively, the SRT/LRT needs to be completely cancelled and replaced with a branch of SmartTrack.

I see the worst option as going back to the Transit City version of SRT/LRT where it is discontinous at Kennedy. This one has been rejected enough times by enough people that if it is proposed again, then too many Councillors, MPs, and members of the public will oppose it as they have before. There needs to be some change in plan so that these people can accept a different, non-subway, plan.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I see the worst option as going back to the Transit City version of SRT/LRT where it is discontinous at Kennedy. This one has been rejected enough times by enough people that if it is proposed again, then too many Councillors, MPs, and members of the public will oppose it as they have before.

I don't agree.

I think that if SS is cancelled, people will be tired of the debates/studies and will just want something built. The SRT is shovel ready, so that's likely the plan people will prefer.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I am not sure.

Is there room in the corridor for SRT/LRT tracks, and SmartTrack tracks?
Is there room for these tracks plus having both an SRT/LRT station, and SmartTrack station at Elllesmere, Lawrence, and Eglinton*?
* (At Eglinton (Kennedy Station), a GO station is also needed, but the SRT/LRT station may be more parallel to Eglinton).

The options seem to be:

1. If there is room, the best solution seems to be to go back to the SRT/LRT plan, and to make it sell politically, you connect the SRT to the ECLRT so Scarborough is connected without a transfer.
3. If there is no room for the necesary stations, perhaps one or both of Ellesmere and Lawrence could be dropped from the SmartTrack.
5. Alternatively, the SRT/LRT needs to be completely cancelled and replaced with a branch of SmartTrack.

I see the worst option as going back to the Transit City version of SRT/LRT where it is discontinous at Kennedy. This one has been rejected enough times by enough people that if it is proposed again, then too many Councillors, MPs, and members of the public will oppose it as they have before. There needs to be some change in plan so that these people can accept a different, non-subway, plan.

The fact that the SmartTrack studies will be examining the effects of ST on all rapid transit lines, is a very strong indicator that John Tory does not support the subway extension.

Typically, Toronto/Metrolinx reports look at each transit project in isolation; ignoring the effects that one project might have on the other. This ST study is the first study in a long time to look at how the proposed project will affect other rapid transit initiatives.

John Tory isn't ignorant of the Scarborough Subway situation. He knows that, as proposed, the line is at the threshold of being unviable due to low ridership. He also knows that ST will without a doubt divert a signifiant amount of riders away from the subway. If John Tory supported the Scarborough Subway, the ST report would have looked at ST in isolation, not examining its effects on the subway or any other rapid transit lines. This ST report very much looks like an attempt to undermine the credibility of the subway extension.

 

[nfitz]

The notion that this subway was only possible under a lunatic like Ford is pretty funny considering that B-D was the centrepiece of Smitherman's transit plan.

Centrepiece? Smitherman had a $7 billion plan, of which the SRT to subway conversion was only $535 million. Smitherman didn't propose this, he proposed extending the BD up the existing alignment, and then stopping at McCowan, rather than going to Sheppard.

With $6.5 billion of other projects on the table, this wasn't the centrepiece! That this has ballooned to over $3 billion is lunacy, and I expect Smitherman would agree!

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The notion that this subway was only possible under a lunatic like Ford is pretty funny considering that B-D was the centrepiece of Smitherman's transit plan.

There is no evidence the higher-ups at the TTC are doing anything about an SRT replacement other than re-negotiating the master agreement with the province to make the subway a reality.

Your support for this disaster is unreal. Apparently, you know something Steve Munro does not, as he just said the exact same thing everyone else is saying in the last two pages.

Sure there is. It's 1.7 km from Scarborough Centre to Sheppard. if subway instead goes up Markham to Progress, it's about the same length as the current proposal. Better yet, go north on McCowan, then turn at STC to Centennial. Same length, but serves Centennial instead of McCowan Sheppard.

I don't recommend this ... just saying that you can serve further east at a similar cost, and hit STC.

Obviously an SRT replacement that misses the SRT and STC completely is dead in the water, even if it does make more sense from a subway ridership basis - simply because you've still got the current aging SRT to be dealt with.

Why not the SRT Alignment for 1.9 billion or whatever it was? Take the 2 billion left over and put it into other areas. Ironically this would serve East Scarborough at the expense of West Scarborough.

 

[diminutive]

Ah, here we go - original estimate was $360 million. $190 million to upgrade the line and $170 million for new vehicles (44 17-metre long Mark II cars to replace the current 28 13-metre long Mark I cars). And now with scope bloat we are $3 billion and counting, including $250 million to extend the life of the SRT until 2024!

Passing up on this has gotta be one of the most inane blunders in Toronto history.

There's so much unearned hate for the SRT that we're going to spend decades and billions just to duplicate what was already there.

I can't believe that in a City with as paltry a rapid transit network we've wasted so much time/money on one corridor which already had relatively decent service.