Countdown to 2047: The Death of Hong Kong?

[jje1000]

I don’t think anything will replace Hong Kong. But that doesn’t mean Hong Kong doesn’t stop being what it was, a safe place for business into China.

That's entirely reliant on China's attempts to intrude into Hong Kong's autonomy, and the current SAR government's failure to actually govern and not delegate their public interactions to the police.

The protests are a temporal element and the finance industry has endured worse- structural changes to governance are what they're afraid of.


From S&P and Moody's:

"Moody's has previously noted that a downgrade could be triggered by a shift in the current equilibrium between the SAR's (Special Administrative Region's) economic proximity to and legal and regulatory distance from China," Moody's said in a statement.

The institutional features that grant Hong Kong greater political and economic autonomy - together with the city's intrinsic credit strengths - accounted for Hong Kong's higher rating than China, the agency said.

It said it would "likely downgrade Hong Kong's rating" if it concluded the protests, or measures taken by the Hong Kong government to resolve them, were likely to damage Hong Kong's medium-term economic prospects, or "signify an erosion in the predictability and effectiveness of its governing, judicial and policymaking institutions."

Hong Kong's leader, Carrie Lam, told a group of businessmen in late August that her "political room for manoeuvring is very, very, very limited", because the unrest has become a national security and sovereignty issue for China.

The longer the standoff continues, the greater the risk that Hong Kong's attractiveness as a global economic and financial centre would be diminished, Moody's said.

Dwindling capacity for the government to implement certain policies could "undermine key drivers of its competitiveness and macroeconomic stability."

Moody's downgrades Hong Kong outlook to 'negative' as protests continue

HONG KONG (REUTERS) - Credit rating agency Moody's changed its outlook on Hong Kong's rating to negative from stable on Monday (Sept 16), reflecting what it called the rising risk of"an erosion in the strength of Hong Kong's institutions" amid the city's ongoing protests.. Read more at...

www.straitstimes.com

"Months of persistent conflict and violence are testing the perimeters and pliability of the 'one country, two systems' framework that governs Hong Kong's relationship with the mainland," Fitch said in a statement. "The gradual rise in Hong Kong's economic, financial, and socio-political linkages with the mainland implies its continued integration into China's national governance system, which will present greater institutional and regulatory challenges over time."

"Ongoing events have also inflicted long-lasting damage to international perceptions of the quality and effectiveness of Hong Kong's governance system and rule of law, and have called into question the stability and dynamism of its business environment," Fitch said.

Fitch downgrades Hong Kong for first time since 1995 on turmoil

HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Fitch Ratings downgraded Hong Kong as an issuer of long-term, foreign currency debt for the first time since 1995, saying that the territory's recent political turmoil raises doubts about its governance.. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Ironically, I think the finance industry is what protects Hong Kong at the same time. China is credit-strapped and they need Hong Kong as a FX entry point (I think around 70% of all Chinese FX exchanges still occurs in Hong Kong).

In Hong Kong, China can't pull an Iran, turn off the lights, and emerge with bloodied hands. Turning off forms of communication would fundamentally signal an end to Hong Kong's position as a financial hub- yet this continued connection to the outside world is what allows protesters to actively document and spead evidence of police abuses and false-flag attempts, and allow the greater public to see what's happening.

As of now, I think the protests are at a crossroads, and we'll need to see how the CPC responds to the democractic victories; how they'll attempt to save face. In their views, they can't lose- after all, it's all been 70 continuous years of progress and victory, hasn't it?

 

[SunriseChampion]

But I don't think I'll visit anywhere in China until this Huawei issue is cleared up - I don't need to be randomly detained for months.

What, you're not a "spy"?

And what's your problem with being fairly treated by being locked up on fictional charges and denied consular services for long periods of time whilst being prevented from sleeping?

The evil Canadian side have their prisoner's rights being violated by being restricted to her mansion in Vancouver. What a hell!

The Chinese Communist Party loves you, AdmiralB! They only want what's best for their people and for world peace and prosperity. Don't rebuke them by avoiding their socialist paradise.

 

[jje1000]

So Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Interesting that he chose to sign it- rather than simply allowing 10 days to lapse for it to automatically become law. IMO, it may be that he was still looking to negotiate with CPC, and when that failed, he signed the bill to send a signal to the CPC. Wonder when the tariffs will rise again?

As usual, the CPC throws a fit, and I don't doubt that they'll be looking at ways of revenge. Personally I doubt the bill will be a singular, Hong Kong-saving piece of legislation, but it's more importantly a rejection of the status quo that had endured since the 90s.


Of note- interesting that positive feedback loops always happen in totalitarian regimes when it becomes safer for subordinates to lie than to tell the truth:

Hong Kongers Break Beijing’s Delusions of Victory
The authorities were so confident of elections going their way that state media filed copy in advance.
By James Palmer | November 25, 2019, 4:39 PM

Hong Kongers Break Beijing’s Delusions of Victory

The authorities were so confident of elections going their way that state media filed copy in advance.

foreignpolicy.com

As the CPC finally responds to the election- by accusations of foreign meddling (no irony lost there):

“The result of Sunday’s district council election marks a setback for Hong Kong’s democratic development, as the results were skewed by the illegal activities of the opposition camp to the benefit of their candidates,” said China Daily in an editorial on Monday.

“In the run-up to Sunday’s voting, members of the opposition camp, particularly their young agitators, engaged in an all-out campaign to sabotage the campaign activities of pro-establishment candidates and intimidate their supporters from going to the ballot box,” added the English language newspaper.

The Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily reported Tuesday that the local elections in Hong Kong have concluded, but it did not mention the result.

The newspaper also said the months-long social unrest in Hong Kong has “severely disrupted the elections process” and added that “patriotic candidates” were harassed on the day of the election by those seeking chaos, according to a CNBC translation.

Beijing finally responds to Hong Kong election results after big win for democrats

Chinese state media downplayed the results of Hong Kong's local elections on Sunday, and said the polls "fell victim" to social unrest.

www.cnbc.com

 

[SunriseChampion]

^That Foreing Policy article is brilliant and reminds me of the surreal joke that was officialdom in communist Czechoslovakia. Paranoid delusions. Ultimately, all autocratic governments and cults (interchangeable) turn out the be self-destructive sociopathic schizoid organisations.

 

[jje1000]

The bolts are turning tighter in China- what happens in China's Far West will eventually impact the rest of its citizens, even if they've assumed it'll never happen to them.

China introduces mandatory face scans for phone users

China will require telecom operators to collect face scans when registering new phone users at offline outlets starting Sunday, according to the country's information technology authority, as Beijing continues to tighten cyberspace controls. In September, China's industry and information...

news.yahoo.com

And earlier in Octobber:

Shanghai apartment buildings are secretly installing facial-recognition devices

There appears to be no way to opt out as China broadens its use of digital surveillance.

qz.com

 

[SunriseChampion]

The bolts are turning tighter in China- what happens in China's Far West will eventually impact the rest of its citizens, even if they've assumed it'll never happen to them.

China introduces mandatory face scans for phone users

China will require telecom operators to collect face scans when registering new phone users at offline outlets starting Sunday, according to the country's information technology authority, as Beijing continues to tighten cyberspace controls. In September, China's industry and information...

news.yahoo.com

And earlier in Octobber:

Shanghai apartment buildings are secretly installing facial-recognition devices

There appears to be no way to opt out as China broadens its use of digital surveillance.

qz.com

The Stasi wish they had it this good.

 

[jje1000]

Oh, modern technology is proving to be increasingly terrifying in its ability to record and isolate subjects.

As the shine comes off the economic bloom, the good people of China may find that they’ve given the CPC too much control over their lives- and that the state’s ability to suppress dissent may far outweigh their ability to express it.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Any chance our government is finally going to start publicly talking about the concentration camps (let's not use euphemisms) in Xinjiang?
I know our new ambassador to China knows aaaaalll about them from his time at McKinsey.

Will part of the review on whether to allow Huawei to operate 5G here take into account Huawei's participation in the oppression of the Uyghur?
Does our government use Hikvision as a supplier of surveillance equipment? Hikvision are also involved in the oppression of the Uyghur.

How easy it is to buy our silence and appeasement.

 

[Towered]

Any chance our government is finally going to start publicly talking about the concentration camps (let's not use euphemisms) in Xinjiang?
I know our new ambassador to China knows aaaaalll about them from his time at McKinsey.

Will part of the review on whether to allow Huawei to operate 5G here take into account Huawei's participation in the oppression of the Uyghur?
Does our government use Hikvision as a supplier of surveillance equipment? Hikvision are also involved in the oppression of the Uyghur.

How easy it is to buy our silence and appeasement.

Please, I have zero faith in our politicians to do the right thing. Morals go out the window when money and economic benefits are at risk.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Please, I have zero faith in our politicians to do the right thing. Morals go out the window when money and economic benefits are at risk.

I know. It was a trick question.

Never mind the fact that Trudeau is a big fan of the CPC as bosses of China. It's a family thing. Threw Taiwan under the bus way before I was born.

It's cute (except the Uyghurs, Hong Kongers, Tibetans, and Taiwanese might not think so). It's like the appeasement of Hitler and the Nazis all over again.

Concentration camps, territorial expansion, coercion and threats, everyone too scared to stand up to them.

Where's the crazy bastard Churchill of our times?

Deffo will not be found here in Canada and especially not amongst the ranks of the CPC-loving Liberals.

 

[Towered]

I know. It was a trick question.

Never mind the fact that Trudeau is a big fan of the CPC as bosses of China. It's a family thing. Threw Taiwan under the bus way before I was born.

It's cute (except the Uyghurs, Hong Kongers, Tibetans, and Taiwanese might not think so). It's like the appeasement of Hitler and the Nazis all over again.

Concentration camps, territorial expansion, coercion and threats, everyone too scared to stand up to them.

Where's the crazy bastard Churchill of our times?

Deffo will not be found here in Canada and especially not amongst the ranks of the CPC-loving Liberals.

As much as I generally dislike Trump, he's at least somewhat standing up to them...

 

[SunriseChampion]

As much as I generally dislike Trump, he's at least somewhat standing up to them...

Yeah, I'm actually glad for it.

I'm no fan of the American sociopolitical realm (or American culture), but I do appreciate their penchant for standing up to psychopathic regimes at times. Like the Chinese and Soviets before them.

 

[jje1000]

Interesting views over the last few days- China has essentially been lashing out at the US and banning NGOs and think tanks- could this have a secret blessing of disentangling the China doves (i.e. Brookings Institute) and further waking up the public?

IMO, all China had to do to cement its role in the world would have literally been to do nothing- but right now with Trump and Xi at the helms, it's essentially morphing into a war of ideologies and systems (the trade war is just one of those elements).

 

[reactx]

Russia and China's ominous new friendship

David Andelman writes that natural gas has begun flowing this week along the new "Power of Siberia" pipeline linking Russia and China, a testimony to the increasingly close and, for the United States, quite dangerous ties between the two countries.

www.cnn.com

 

[reactx]

The conditions have become too polarizing in HK:

‘It’s very dangerous’: Pro-government demonstrators denounce Hong Kong protests - National | Globalnews.ca

Chief among the demonstrators' complaints was that they have grown scared of the black-clad, frequently violent hard core of the anti-government movement.

globalnews.ca