afransen
Senior Member
No, Tory support cratered in Ontario and the Atlantic as well. Just about the only area where they strengthened over this week was in Alberta, where they gained 9 points. Obviously that's not very helpful for them.
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Canada's next Prime Minister?
- Thread starter Solaris
- Start date
adma
Superstar
I'll tell you this much: I'm not voting for Jack Layton. Absolutely not.
Why?
Because I'm not a resident of Toronto-Danforth! Silly!
Why?
Because I'm not a resident of Toronto-Danforth! Silly!
H
Hydrogen
Guest
Not so "cratered" any more.
Tories' lead picking up steam
BRIAN LAGHI
Globe and Mail Update
October 10, 2008 at 9:00 PM EDT
The federal Tories will enter the final weekend of the federal election campaign with a solidified lead and a bounce from vote-rich Ontario, but still needing last-minute votes if they are to cobble together their much-sought after majority.
A wide-ranging poll of Ontario voters by The Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News finds the Tories enjoying a five-point lead over the Liberals in the province, erasing a five-point disadvantage from the 2006 campaign. But the increase still wouldn't provide the Tories with the seats needed to reach a majority. Conservative Stephen Harper will either have to find more seats outside Ontario or convince even more of its residents to vote for his party over Thanksgiving dinner.
The Ontario survey of 1,060 voters shows the Tories at 37 per cent support, a two-per-cent hike over 2006. The Liberals are supported by 32 per cent – a drop of eight percentage points from the last election - while the NDP is backed by 20 per cent – the same as last time. The Green Party is up six per cent to 11 per cent, although its supporters are softer than those of the other parties and have previously moved away from the party come election day.
“The big story is the loss of Liberal support,†said Tim Woolstencroft, Strategic Counsel managing partner. Mr. Woolstencroft added that the Conservatives have begun to earn support of groups that haven't traditionally supported them, such as visible minorities and women.
“It's probably one of the more interesting findings.â€
When put through a seat model, the Tories could gain up to 10 seats and the NDP seven. The Liberals would lose 17 seats.
Mr. Woolstencroft said the gains would not be enough on their own for the Tories to gain a majority, particularly given what appears to be a Tory drop-off in the province of Quebec.
The Tories' Ontario results were buttressed Friday by a new national survey which shows the Tories have staunched the bleeding from earlier this week. According to the polling firm Harris/Decima, the Tories enter the weekend with 34 per cent support, compared to 26 per cent for the Liberals and 18 per cent for the NDP. The gap between the two front-running parties had narrowed to about four per cent earlier this week.
In the Ontario poll, the Liberals continue to lead by a solid margin in Toronto – 39 to 29 over the Conservatives – but are down from their 2006 election number of 51 per cent.
The Tories have made their biggest gains in southeastern Ontario, where they are up by seven percentage points. The Tories also appear ready to make gains in the 905 area code just outside of Toronto.
But it is really the Liberal losses that appear to be helping the Tories.
For example, while the Tories are only one point up in the region of south central Ontario from the last election, the Liberals have dropped 11 points from the last election. The change has turned a five point Liberal lead in 2006 to a seven point Tory lead today.
The poll also found that the Liberals have dropped 11 percentage points within ridings that they won in 2006, while the Tories have jumped two points in Conservative-held ridings. The NDP is strong in its home ridings.
The best opportunity for the Liberals in Ontario appears to be the softness of some of the NDP/Green vote. A total of 44 per cent of Green voters say they are likely or somewhat likely to switch their votes, while 30 per cent of Liberals and New Democrats say the same thing.
Of NDP voters, 40 per cent rate the Liberals as their second choice. Among Greens, 35 per cent pick the NDP as their number two, with 27 per cent mark the Liberals as a second preference.
Mr. Woolstencroft said many Canadians will probably spend Thanksgiving thinking hard about who to vote for.
Tories are hoping that, despite their problems earlier this week, Canadians will ultimately conclude that Mr. Harper is best-positioned to deal with the difficulties facing the Canadian economy.
One of the poll's most interesting findings is the Tory performance among visible minorities. Pollsters found that 36 per cent of visible minorities polled would vote Tory, compared to 38 per cent who vote Liberal.
“That explains why they might do well in 905,†said Greg Lyle a pollster with Innovative Research Group Inc. Mr. Lyle said the Tories may have attracted visible minority groups by arguing that they would help the pocketbooks of lower-income Canadians, many of whom are visible minorities.
Mr. Lyle said that, typically, the Liberals have enjoyed a three-to-one lead among visible minority groups.
The poll was conducted between Oct. 7th-9th and is accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Meanwhile, a survey of 45 key battleground ridings in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec shows the Tories have recovered somewhat from a difficult week. In the 20 Ontario battlegrounds the Tories are tracking at exactly the same as their 2006 figure of 37 per cent. That is, however, an improvement of two points from two days ago. In Quebec's 15 ridings, the party is down a point from its 23 per cent of 2006 , but has moved upward somewhat from earlier this week. Similar trends have appeared in the 10 British Columbia battleground ridings.
The 45 ridings being polled are the tightest races in those three provinces from 2006.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.welectionpoll11/BNStory/politics/home
Tories' lead picking up steam
BRIAN LAGHI
Globe and Mail Update
October 10, 2008 at 9:00 PM EDT
The federal Tories will enter the final weekend of the federal election campaign with a solidified lead and a bounce from vote-rich Ontario, but still needing last-minute votes if they are to cobble together their much-sought after majority.
A wide-ranging poll of Ontario voters by The Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News finds the Tories enjoying a five-point lead over the Liberals in the province, erasing a five-point disadvantage from the 2006 campaign. But the increase still wouldn't provide the Tories with the seats needed to reach a majority. Conservative Stephen Harper will either have to find more seats outside Ontario or convince even more of its residents to vote for his party over Thanksgiving dinner.
The Ontario survey of 1,060 voters shows the Tories at 37 per cent support, a two-per-cent hike over 2006. The Liberals are supported by 32 per cent – a drop of eight percentage points from the last election - while the NDP is backed by 20 per cent – the same as last time. The Green Party is up six per cent to 11 per cent, although its supporters are softer than those of the other parties and have previously moved away from the party come election day.
“The big story is the loss of Liberal support,†said Tim Woolstencroft, Strategic Counsel managing partner. Mr. Woolstencroft added that the Conservatives have begun to earn support of groups that haven't traditionally supported them, such as visible minorities and women.
“It's probably one of the more interesting findings.â€
When put through a seat model, the Tories could gain up to 10 seats and the NDP seven. The Liberals would lose 17 seats.
Mr. Woolstencroft said the gains would not be enough on their own for the Tories to gain a majority, particularly given what appears to be a Tory drop-off in the province of Quebec.
The Tories' Ontario results were buttressed Friday by a new national survey which shows the Tories have staunched the bleeding from earlier this week. According to the polling firm Harris/Decima, the Tories enter the weekend with 34 per cent support, compared to 26 per cent for the Liberals and 18 per cent for the NDP. The gap between the two front-running parties had narrowed to about four per cent earlier this week.
In the Ontario poll, the Liberals continue to lead by a solid margin in Toronto – 39 to 29 over the Conservatives – but are down from their 2006 election number of 51 per cent.
The Tories have made their biggest gains in southeastern Ontario, where they are up by seven percentage points. The Tories also appear ready to make gains in the 905 area code just outside of Toronto.
But it is really the Liberal losses that appear to be helping the Tories.
For example, while the Tories are only one point up in the region of south central Ontario from the last election, the Liberals have dropped 11 points from the last election. The change has turned a five point Liberal lead in 2006 to a seven point Tory lead today.
The poll also found that the Liberals have dropped 11 percentage points within ridings that they won in 2006, while the Tories have jumped two points in Conservative-held ridings. The NDP is strong in its home ridings.
The best opportunity for the Liberals in Ontario appears to be the softness of some of the NDP/Green vote. A total of 44 per cent of Green voters say they are likely or somewhat likely to switch their votes, while 30 per cent of Liberals and New Democrats say the same thing.
Of NDP voters, 40 per cent rate the Liberals as their second choice. Among Greens, 35 per cent pick the NDP as their number two, with 27 per cent mark the Liberals as a second preference.
Mr. Woolstencroft said many Canadians will probably spend Thanksgiving thinking hard about who to vote for.
Tories are hoping that, despite their problems earlier this week, Canadians will ultimately conclude that Mr. Harper is best-positioned to deal with the difficulties facing the Canadian economy.
One of the poll's most interesting findings is the Tory performance among visible minorities. Pollsters found that 36 per cent of visible minorities polled would vote Tory, compared to 38 per cent who vote Liberal.
“That explains why they might do well in 905,†said Greg Lyle a pollster with Innovative Research Group Inc. Mr. Lyle said the Tories may have attracted visible minority groups by arguing that they would help the pocketbooks of lower-income Canadians, many of whom are visible minorities.
Mr. Lyle said that, typically, the Liberals have enjoyed a three-to-one lead among visible minority groups.
The poll was conducted between Oct. 7th-9th and is accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Meanwhile, a survey of 45 key battleground ridings in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec shows the Tories have recovered somewhat from a difficult week. In the 20 Ontario battlegrounds the Tories are tracking at exactly the same as their 2006 figure of 37 per cent. That is, however, an improvement of two points from two days ago. In Quebec's 15 ridings, the party is down a point from its 23 per cent of 2006 , but has moved upward somewhat from earlier this week. Similar trends have appeared in the 10 British Columbia battleground ridings.
The 45 ridings being polled are the tightest races in those three provinces from 2006.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081010.welectionpoll11/BNStory/politics/home
Brandon716
Senior Member
This is the most important part of the article, once you take the spin out and just look at raw data.
If 44% of Green voters are technically up for grabs, as well as 30% of both Liberals and NDP'ers, theoretically the NDP and Liberal vote wavering cancels each other out, and I say at least half of the Green vote is going to come back home and give the Liberals an extra 5% at least.
Most Green voters realize their vote is rather wasted when the NDP and Liberals both have better green policy...
Harper is either going to retain a minority government or lose in a surprise election IMO. Harper's prospects have been overrated and hyped by the media BEFORE this campaign even began.
What will give Liberals a surprise minority government is if NDP'ers get tired of Harper and join a new fresh Liberal face in Dion and throw away previous animosity to realize Harper's GOT GO GO! And if the Bloc can take away support from the Cons in Quebec and if the Liberals can make any gains from a few ridings.
Its only a few days before we know what will really happen. Something tells me half of Green voters know a vote for May is essentially supporting Harper's policies, and that the 30% of Liberals who are on the fence will be more likely to stay in Liberal territory, while the 30% of NDP'ers giving a second glance are realizing what is at stake.
I refuse to rule out a surprise LIBERAL MINORITY. Harper simply has to go... Too many people don't like Harper for them not to give Dion a second look before Tuesday.
Moonmoth
Active Member
The anti-Harper movement is strong, it transcends party lines. Even the Toronto Star is talking about a possible coalition government between the other parties if Harper gets enough seats to form a minority. Either the Liberals will win a minority, or the Liberals, NDP, Green & Bloc will join up in their hatred of Harper and his far right-wing cronies. They might put aside their differences to unite against the destructiveness of another Harper government. This would be extremely effective especially with regards to the environmental crisis, because it's not simply one policy which is the right one to solve our problems, but a combination of various policies and initiatives, so carbon tax plus cap and trade, plus an array of measures.
Either of those scenarios might very well play out. Canada does extremely well with coalition governments, Dion has weathered the storm of ridicule foisted on him by endless tory attack ads, he's proven himself. The vast majority of Canadians want progressiveness not regressiveness. Globally, banks are collapsing, countries are going bankrupt, it's no longer the heyday of rampant greed, growth and consumerism, this is not the time to elect Tories to government.
Either of those scenarios might very well play out. Canada does extremely well with coalition governments, Dion has weathered the storm of ridicule foisted on him by endless tory attack ads, he's proven himself. The vast majority of Canadians want progressiveness not regressiveness. Globally, banks are collapsing, countries are going bankrupt, it's no longer the heyday of rampant greed, growth and consumerism, this is not the time to elect Tories to government.
afransen
Senior Member
Strategically, it makes little sense for the NDP to prop up the Liberals, and the Liberals likely wouldn't want to have the stink of the BQ on them. I think we're headed toward a Conservative minority, but it might well be diminished, and perhaps with any luck that will cost Harper his job.
H
Hydrogen
Guest
It's presumptuous on your part to think that Green voters believe that their votes are wasted. Why would they purposely waste their vote?
If you have looked across the span of Canadian media, you would see that Harper is not getting a free ride. And as for his prospects, many people have not wavered from the idea that the Conservatives would probably return with a minority government once again.
The whole repetitive "fresh face" slogan about Dion is getting very tired. He's not fresh. While Liberal leader, he didn't even attempt to bring down the government, the Conservatives did that for him. As for the Bloc in Quebec, they are merely retaking potential votes that were once their. It's the Liberals who have been thoroughly blown out of the water in Quebec.
Moonmoth
Active Member
I know, but the Liberals, NDP, Bloc & Green have been denouncing Harper saying he's unfit to govern Canada throughout this campaign, if they truly believed that, then they should stop at nothing to patch up their differences temporarily just to ensure he will not be PM in the event of a Tory minority.
Harper's non-policies are brutal and harmful to Canada. If the other parties have any balls at all, they will set that as their unifying factor and stop Harper from flushing what's left of Canada down the toilet.
urbandreamer
recession proof
Moonmoth, how have Harper's policies been harmful to you, a Canadian citizen? Specifics please.
Brandon716
Senior Member
I know many Green supporters off this forum I chat with, and they all tell me they just don't "trust" the Liberals anymore and still feel jaded from the events 5 years ago.
When people get over the fact that Liberals had a scandal, dealt with it, and its history they'll come home. Especially when they start to realize Harper might lead Canada with even more power. That's more distasteful to most potential Green voters than anything.
The left is effectively split into 4 parties and Harper can't garner a majority government, that speaks volumes as to how unpopular Harper is. When the right was split, it was only two parties for crying outloud... The right is presently united under one singular party for both Anglophone and Francophones, and they still can't be guaranteed a majority, and might still lose to a surprise Liberal minority.
IMO Harper doesn't represent Canada in any way, shape, or form.
urbandreamer
recession proof
^Ever been to Alberta, or the BC interior? How about Mid-western Ontario--Perth, Huron and Bruce counties? Oakville, Ontario?
Yeah, thought so.
Yeah, thought so.
Brandon716
Senior Member
I've been to BC, not to Alberta. I've been to Oakville.
Your point being??
Your point being??
Moonmoth
Active Member
What baffles me the most about this Albertan support for Harper is that not only is it decimating the environment but the oil from the tar sands goes directly to the Americans, it's US oil companies mining there, not Canadian ones, Albertans have been brainwashed into thinking it's good for them, that they are profiting - meanwhile they're being blatantly being sold out! It's destined to become a militarized zone, either the oil runs out and all those companies will leave the area leaving Albertans to clean up the mess, or the US army will plow in to protect what's theirs. It's a lose-lose situation either way, and Albertans are lapping it up.
urbandreamer
recession proof
Brandon: My point being you have no idea what you're talking about.
Moonmoth: Ever heard of BQI, Oilsands Quest Inc?
You might want to join in the historic buying op, anything below $1-$1.50 is a gift....but it might go to .50...
Moonmoth: Ever heard of BQI, Oilsands Quest Inc?
You might want to join in the historic buying op, anything below $1-$1.50 is a gift....but it might go to .50...
Brandon716
Senior Member
Alberta certainly is special, I'll leave it at that...
Point still stands that when the right was only split between two parties, the Liberals held a runaway majority and the left is split into 4 parties and the Cons barely can muster up another minority, and if they get a majority it'll be on the hair of their teeth.
Its pretty clear Harper simply doesn't represent the vast majority of Canadian interests. Alberta and Oakville aside.
Point still stands that when the right was only split between two parties, the Liberals held a runaway majority and the left is split into 4 parties and the Cons barely can muster up another minority, and if they get a majority it'll be on the hair of their teeth.
Its pretty clear Harper simply doesn't represent the vast majority of Canadian interests. Alberta and Oakville aside.