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Baby, we got a bubble!?

I just ran into a new thread '460 Yonge'. A yesterday's post indicates that Canderel -- developer of, among others, RoCP1 & 2 and AURA -- has purchased property at 460 Yonge, just north of College, for $ 22 million. Earlier, other developers have purchased properties along Yonge street: for example, 501 Yonge Street.

I am not too much knowledgable about development industry. However, if one is to add carrying costs of this purchase and other development costs, then, it is obvious that whenever this property comes to the market -- 4/5/6 years down the road -- sq. ft. selling price of units will be higher than the current sq. ft. prices: around $ 850 sq. ft. for some developments.

Isn't is logical to assume that, ignoring short term dip in the prices, if any, road down the road is sunny?
 
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I just ran into a new thread '460 Yonge'. A yesterday's post indicates that Canderel -- developer of, among others, RoCP1 & 2 and AURA -- has purchased property at 460 Yonge, just north of College, for $ 22 million. Earlier, other developers have purchased properties along Yonge street: for example, 501 Yonge Street.

I am not too much knowledgable about development industry. However, if one is to add carrying costs of this purchase and other development costs, then, it is obvious that whenever this property comes to the market -- 4/5/6 years down the road -- sq. ft. selling price of units will be higher than the current sq. ft. prices: around $ 850 sq. ft. for some developments.

Isn't is logical to assume that, ignoring short term dip in the prices, if any, road down the road is sunny?

Could you break down how exactly you arrive at that number?
 
This figure of $ 850 sq.ft. has been quoted on this thread by the individuals who have visited sales centres of Cinema Towers and a few other developments.

That's fine, but in your post you derive it from the purchase price of the location (22m), and some other costs about which you are not specific. I don't see how the latter translates into a price of $850 psf.
 
If I borrow from the 460 post on UT; big daddy says he calculated the site at 19000 sq.ft.
Assuming this is correct and assuming they could build say 40 stories and cover it fully: 40 x 19000 sq.ft. equals 760,000 sq.ft.

$22,000,000 divided by 760,000 sq.ft. is $29 land cost/sq.ft.

My suspicion is they might get more than 40 stories but that said, there would be setbacks presumably so assuming 10,000 sq.ft./floor and this results in closer to the $50-60/sq.ft. land cost. If construction costs are $300/sq.ft. I am not sure that we can conclude there is justification for higher prices than $850/sq.ft.

Of course, change any parameter and the numbers change markedly but to me $22 mill would seem about right with up to $60/sq.ft. land cost I believe representing what a builder would expect in a prime location.
 
for those who keeps on screaming the sky is falling should really look at the over market of Canada.Ask most "foreign buyers" and they still consider Canada's real estate as underpriced and the country has stable growth and stability.They arent investing for easy spin of the property but long term income.You think foreign investors would buy a studio unit and become rich by flipping it?.They can make money doing day trades then sitting on a enty level condo_Over built???...I listed my condo for rental and got over 10 applications the first few days from my broker and everyone the potential renter had good jobs and great credit rating.Toronto is far from being over built.
 
for those who keeps on screaming the sky is falling should really look at the over market of Canada.Ask most "foreign buyers" and they still consider Canada's real estate as underpriced and the country has stable growth and stability.They arent investing for easy spin of the property but long term income.You think foreign investors would buy a studio unit and become rich by flipping it?.They can make money doing day trades then sitting on a enty level condo_Over built???...I listed my condo for rental and got over 10 applications the first few days from my broker and everyone the potential renter had good jobs and great credit rating.Toronto is far from being over built.

When did you buy your condo? Is your rent covering all condo related expenses (mortgage, taxes, maintenance fees) and then some?
 
I just ran into a new thread '460 Yonge'. A yesterday's post indicates that Canderel -- developer of, among others, RoCP1 & 2 and AURA -- has purchased property at 460 Yonge, just north of College, for $ 22 million. Earlier, other developers have purchased properties along Yonge street: for example, 501 Yonge Street.

I am not too much knowledgable about development industry. However, if one is to add carrying costs of this purchase and other development costs, then, it is obvious that whenever this property comes to the market -- 4/5/6 years down the road -- sq. ft. selling price of units will be higher than the current sq. ft. prices: around $ 850 sq. ft. for some developments. Isn't is logical to assume that, ignoring short term dip in the prices, if any, road down the road is sunny?

Maybe, but maybe not. Some very big US developers (similar and even bigger than Canderal here in Canada) were buying "prime" Florida land for millions. Today, you can buy from them / banks at 90% discount. Just because big developers are buying lots, planning to keep building and selling, it doesn't mean things can't change! That is their business.
http://www.idealequity.com/images/splash/Why%20Canadians%20are%20scooping%20up%20Florida%20real%20estate.pdf

Just to clarify - no need to go into Florida vs Toronto discussion here. I'm just trying to ilustrate, with actual example, that even big players do make mistakes and we can not assume that everything is nice and dandy just beacuse Canderal made another lot purchase.
 
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for those who keeps on screaming the sky is falling should really look at the over market of Canada.Ask most "foreign buyers" and they still consider Canada's real estate as underpriced and the country has stable growth and stability.They arent investing for easy spin of the property but long term income.You think foreign investors would buy a studio unit and become rich by flipping it?.They can make money doing day trades then sitting on a enty level condo_Over built???...I listed my condo for rental and got over 10 applications the first few days from my broker and everyone the potential renter had good jobs and great credit rating.Toronto is far from being over built.

So you are saying foreign investors are buying not to flip as their primary goal? Is it rental yield? Or is it that, like someone said above, they don't really care - its just a safety against corrupt regimes in their own countries?

Foreign buyers as the long term main driving force of r/e prices in G8 country of 40 million people is naive concept!
 
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for those who keeps on screaming the sky is falling should really look at the over market of Canada.Ask most "foreign buyers" and they still consider Canada's real estate as underpriced and the country has stable growth and stability.They arent investing for easy spin of the property but long term income.You think foreign investors would buy a studio unit and become rich by flipping it?.They can make money doing day trades then sitting on a enty level condo_Over built???...I listed my condo for rental and got over 10 applications the first few days from my broker and everyone the potential renter had good jobs and great credit rating.Toronto is far from being over built.



i don't know which 'foreign buyers' you're referring to, however, the chinese from hong kong have a culture of flipping r/e.

i don't know if the same attitude is prevalent in china chinese buyers yet, but it certainly is still the practice of HK chinese.
R/E markets are cyclical and the HK market seems to experience dramatic booms/busts every 5 years or so.
 
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If I borrow from the 460 post on UT; big daddy says he calculated the site at 19000 sq.ft.
Assuming this is correct and assuming they could build say 40 stories and cover it fully: 40 x 19000 sq.ft. equals 760,000 sq.ft.

$22,000,000 divided by 760,000 sq.ft. is $29 land cost/sq.ft.

My suspicion is they might get more than 40 stories but that said, there would be setbacks presumably so assuming 10,000 sq.ft./floor and this results in closer to the $50-60/sq.ft. land cost. If construction costs are $300/sq.ft. I am not sure that we can conclude there is justification for higher prices than $850/sq.ft.

Of course, change any parameter and the numbers change markedly but to me $22 mill would seem about right with up to $60/sq.ft. land cost I believe representing what a builder would expect in a prime location.

so, based on what you are saying, anything above $350 psf is pure profit? So if they sell at 850, then 850-350=500$ profit on each sqft. And, as you mentioned, there are 760000 sqft. So, their profit is supposed to be $380000000. That's insane. One can found a good university with that money. Prices would have to drop a significant amount for the developers to stop building.
 
so, based on what you are saying, anything above $350 psf is pure profit? So if they sell at 850, then 850-350=500$ profit on each sqft. And, as you mentioned, there are 760000 sqft. So, their profit is supposed to be $380000000. That's insane. One can found a good university with that money. Prices would have to drop a significant amount for the developers to stop building.

What about other costs? Marketing, sales people, promo materials, sales center, etc. etc.
 
for those who keeps on screaming the sky is falling should really look at the over market of Canada.Ask most "foreign buyers" and they still consider Canada's real estate as underpriced and the country has stable growth and stability.

It has been reported that a lot of these so called "foreign buyers" are actually Chinese Canadian citizens.
 
It has been reported that a lot of these so called "foreign buyers" are actually Chinese Canadian citizens.

It ties back to the immigration law and new comers. High earners from China are flooding the immigrant pool recently..just because 1) the regulation of the r/e policy there 2) more and more unstable society

The example I had months ago for the buyer in Vancouver, actually the family immigrated here and the wife and the kid stayed while husband flying back and forth.
 
It ties back to the immigration law and new comers. High earners from China are flooding the immigrant pool recently..just because 1) the regulation of the r/e policy there 2) more and more unstable society

The example I had months ago for the buyer in Vancouver, actually the family immigrated here and the wife and the kid stayed while husband flying back and forth.


Canadians are going to pay a high penalty for the govt's inaction until it becomes too late

Is China driving property bubbles abroad?
Chinese buyers have gone abroad on strong yuan, favorable rates


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-china-driving-property-bubbles-abroad-2011-06-28

By Zhu Yishi, Sun Huixia and Zhang Tao

BEIJING ( Caixin Online ) — In late May of this year, more than 400 people lined up to purchase apartments at a site in New Westminster City, a suburb of Vancouver. Within two and half hours of the start of the sale, all 153 units had been sold.

The otherwise unexceptional set of properties stood out on the sole basis that they attracted unprecedented excitement from Chinese investors.
About Caixin
Caixin is a Beijing-based media group dedicated to providing high-quality and authoritative financial and business news and information through periodicals, online and TV/video programs.
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Bill Morrison, head of sales for the project, told local media that they had not considered marketing the apartments to Chinese buyers until the project was 50% complete, but, “their demand was crazy and Chinese clients accounted for 40% of the total transactions.â€

Many such scenarios have been reported recently by the Canadian media. It seems that where previously Chinese real-estate investors had been fixated on speculative home-buying only in China, they now seem to have set their sights on foreign real-estate markets, fueling speculation.

Bent on buying

According to a report by consultancy Colliers International, 2,527 homes were sold in the first quarter of 2011 in Vancouver, up 35% from a year earlier, with the spike in sales mainly due to a surge of investors from mainland China. The report noted that Chinese investors accounted for 29% of total home sales in the first three months, and stated that number is likely to keep rising.

Additionally, a similar report by the Canadian Real Estate Association in May of this year shows that Vancouver’s housing prices grew 10% year-on-year in April, led by price hikes for luxury apartments.

Zhang Jun, who immigrated to Canada in 2006, had witnessed a brief downturn in Vancouver’s property market following the global financial crisis, but also the ensuing recovery and recent boom since last year, which he attributed in part to increased Chinese interest in Canadian real estate.

“Increasing numbers of my friends in China have consulted me over the process, laws and regulations, and tax policies concerning home purchases in Canada,†he said.

In addition to Canada, Chinese home buyers are bolstering real-estate investment in countries like the U.S., U.K., Australia and Singapore. According to a report released by the U.S. National Association of Realtors in May, overseas buyers bought $1 billion worth of homes in the U.S. in the 12 months to March, Chinese buyers accounted for 9% of those overseas home purchases, making them the second-largest foreign home-buying group, after Canadians.

According to real-estate agency Savills, 35% of the buyers in London’s primary property market came from East Asia and South Asia, of which buyers from mainland China and Hong Kong were the majority. In the same vein, consultancy CBRE projected that mainland Chinese buyers will account for 5% to 10% of London’s residential property sales by volume this year.

Shopper types

Colliers International North China’s managing director Amanda Gao told Caixin that Chinese buyers of overseas property can roughly be divided into three groups.

The first group are those studying overseas. Their well-to-do parents prefer purchasing homes rather than renting homes overseas, and some even purchase large houses, renting out portions to partly fund their children’s studies.

A second group are immigrants. A large wave of Chinese people migrating overseas occurred around 2010, with the number of investment immigrants rising quickly. In major migration destinations such as Canada and Australia, Chinese immigrants’ demand for high-end property has been robust, fueling booms in local real-estate markets.

The third group are those who are simply investing in property. To rein in the overheating domestic property market, the Chinese government has implemented policies such as credit tightening and home-purchase restrictions. In comparison, some overseas countries have looser mortgage policies and lower lending rates, attracting profit-driven speculators into local real-estate markets.

Anton Eilers, executive director of Residential China at CBRE, told Caixin that overseas property transactions by Chinese purely for investment purpose have been increasing steadily since the start of 2011, already accounting for one-third of the total.

Whistling out

A private business owner in northeast China said that the prospect for increasing property values in China has become bleak amid government restrictions, making the investment value limited in the coming two years.

He is currently considering offloading his Chinese property holdings and turning to overseas property investment.

“In cities like London and Sydney, the property investment outlook compares favorably with the domestic market, both in terms of rental returns and the room for property appreciation,†he said.

Beyond the prospect of higher appreciation, DTZ’s Ho said that mature overseas property markets serve as a hedge against inflation. “Mature real-estate markets overseas are more stable and less risky.â€

Ho said that, “switching part of domestic investment to overseas property is not only a good means of fighting inflation, but also allows one’s personal asset structure to become more stable and balanced.â€

Moreover, the appreciation of the yuan has also driven mainland China investors to buy property abroad. Over the past five years, the yuan rose by 22% against the U.S. dollar, not only strengthening its purchasing power, but also easing pressure to repay overseas loans.

This increase in the value of the yuan, combined with sharp depreciation and low interest rates for the British pound, has also made property in London and neighboring areas look cheap in the eyes of Chinese investors. A property consultant in London said that the weak pound meant property in London has become more attractive than real estate in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Unwavering interest

The entry of Chinese capital into overseas real-estate markets has also been accompanied by “Chinese-style†real-estate speculation.

The rapid rise of housing prices in Vancouver has resulted in calls from some locals to curb foreign investment. Royal Bank of Canada economist Robert Hogue has taken extra caution not to label Vancouver’s real-estate market as a “bubble,†though he admitted it remains “high risk.â€

Scott Brown, vice president of Colliers’ Residential Project Marketing Services in western Canada, told Caixin that housing prices in Vancouver and Toronto are now at high levels, but home rents have yet to rise, with many rental returns already as low as 2%.

Factoring in loan interest, property taxes and property management fees, returns on investment are next to nothing.

Zhang told Caixin: “Chinese people’s anticipation for property appreciation far exceeds expectations for rental ncome.â€

Even so, the wave of property investment from China looks dead set to grow.
 

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