Monaco
Active Member
I've only seen two units, not in a real estate-capacity, and the units were very nice. But prices are higher than I expected compared to other buildings.
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
cdr108
Senior Member
???
ponyboy
Active Member
Relevant story
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1015893--why-i-sold-my-house-and-rent-instead#comments
Why I sold my house and rent
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1015893--why-i-sold-my-house-and-rent-instead#comments
Why I sold my house and rent
KA1
Senior Member
Monaco
Active Member
Sorry about that.
Meant to say I've only seen two units when I've been in the units of friends, so I wasn't looking around assessing the specific floor plans or finishes. But based just on general impressions (nice units, but not extraordinary), I'm surprised the Met is selling at such high psf, but i'm probably out-of-touch with pricing now.
cdr108
Senior Member
no worries. i didn't know what you were referencing, thus the confusion.
the central location with ttc at one's doorstep for subway and streetcars makes them somewhat desirable.
i don't have specific sales at the met, but reviewing ads on MLS and taking average asking price, i can't imagine ALL the sellers are looking for way beyond market.
that being said, i think market value is way beyond historic affordability.
happy canada day ... oopppsss, that was yesterday
ps - just reviewed the MLS listings and noticed the maintenance fees are very high for a new construction - ~ $0.65 psf !?!
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ducati0000
Active Member
June been one of the best months ever for condo sales in the GTA....I guess the doom and gloom is upon us......
dlam
Active Member
If you want to move to a good area, I guess it's a good time to do it now (even though prices are high). The high prices encourage sellers to make some money. If the housing price drops 25%, a lot of home owners would stay put, making highly desirable areas even harder to get into due to lack of inventory.
I say this because I am about to move from the suburbs to a condo with direct access to TTC subway at Yonge-Finch in North York. As I look into the future with oil prices continue to rise, it will become much more expensive to drive around for everyday living. In addition, I am hoping that the value of my property being near TTC will stay put or just drop slightly when/if the bubble burst. In all, I think I am excited for the change in scenery and lifestyle, being able to walk to tons of restaurants and taking the TTC without stepping outside in the winter.
I say this because I am about to move from the suburbs to a condo with direct access to TTC subway at Yonge-Finch in North York. As I look into the future with oil prices continue to rise, it will become much more expensive to drive around for everyday living. In addition, I am hoping that the value of my property being near TTC will stay put or just drop slightly when/if the bubble burst. In all, I think I am excited for the change in scenery and lifestyle, being able to walk to tons of restaurants and taking the TTC without stepping outside in the winter.
MetropolisM3
Active Member
Apparently, economists are calling for the Canadian real estate bubble to burst within the next 3 years, plunging home values by up to 25%. Add to that the rising mortgage rates, and everyone will be paying the banks more for a home that's worth less.
I just bought a condo, but I'm happy about my purchase. What happens if they're wrong, and the bubble continues to grow for another 5-10 years? Will people keep waiting and waiting until the bubble bursts? What if a bubble burst in Toronto just means a 5-10% reduction in home values in 10 years, is it worth waiting that long?
Economists can speculate about the housing market all they want, but if you want to buy a house or condo today, I don't think their speculation should stop anyone. I also think the Vancouver market is due for a much bigger correction than Toronto.
I just bought a condo, but I'm happy about my purchase. What happens if they're wrong, and the bubble continues to grow for another 5-10 years? Will people keep waiting and waiting until the bubble bursts? What if a bubble burst in Toronto just means a 5-10% reduction in home values in 10 years, is it worth waiting that long?
Economists can speculate about the housing market all they want, but if you want to buy a house or condo today, I don't think their speculation should stop anyone. I also think the Vancouver market is due for a much bigger correction than Toronto.
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klb86
Active Member
ducati0000
Active Member
Permits are up,vacancy in Toronto is less than %1.8,BoC is tepid about raising interest rates due to weakness in the economy...yup sure signs of a crashing real estate market.Why is it every year for the last three years there is this sudden gloomy forecast for real estate in Canada in the summer and every year there been increases.I doubt very much we see any pullback in prices unless you bought a 2000 sqft shack in a trendy area for $700,000.Condos are still very affordable if you dont buy in the heart of downtown and unemployment is still low in Toronto.I would see a softening in prices but a %25 decrease?...wishful thinking for those who are on the sidelines waiting to buy.
interested
Senior Member
I am not a doom and gloom predictor. I don't happen to expect 25% ducati.
However, I have seen a couple of crashes. I am old enough to remember 1989 in Toronto and I witnessed Florida's in 2006/2007 to present.
What I can say is that before each of these, reason and fundamentals went by the way side. The market "turned on a dime" as it were. Sentiment changed and the price drop was rapid and continuous. It just changed overnight as it were as sentiment changed where suddenly everyone got scared and no one bought. Even the "mini correction of 2008" showed this with prices coming off as much as 15% over 9 months in the City of Toronto.
My point is that markets are always a tug of war between buyers and sellers and their perception of value. If there is a 5% drop, will there be more buyers stepping up to the plate figuring it is a good value and bid it up as happened in 2008 or will it be a repeat of 1989 were prices just dropped for 3 straight years and then more or less languished for 4 more before starting a climb back up in 1996 to finally retest 1989 prices in approximately 2002-2003(as I recall). I don't claim to know. I just wish to point out that history has a way of repeating itself.
So for the younger on this forum who have only witnessed a bull market (save the mini correction), I am simply trying to inform that things can be a lot more drastic than what someone uninitiated or less experienced can imagine.
However, I have seen a couple of crashes. I am old enough to remember 1989 in Toronto and I witnessed Florida's in 2006/2007 to present.
What I can say is that before each of these, reason and fundamentals went by the way side. The market "turned on a dime" as it were. Sentiment changed and the price drop was rapid and continuous. It just changed overnight as it were as sentiment changed where suddenly everyone got scared and no one bought. Even the "mini correction of 2008" showed this with prices coming off as much as 15% over 9 months in the City of Toronto.
My point is that markets are always a tug of war between buyers and sellers and their perception of value. If there is a 5% drop, will there be more buyers stepping up to the plate figuring it is a good value and bid it up as happened in 2008 or will it be a repeat of 1989 were prices just dropped for 3 straight years and then more or less languished for 4 more before starting a climb back up in 1996 to finally retest 1989 prices in approximately 2002-2003(as I recall). I don't claim to know. I just wish to point out that history has a way of repeating itself.
So for the younger on this forum who have only witnessed a bull market (save the mini correction), I am simply trying to inform that things can be a lot more drastic than what someone uninitiated or less experienced can imagine.
cdr108
Senior Member
2000 sf for $700,000 in a trendy area is cheaper than market value ... that's $350 psf vs. $650+ psft !
when you say condos are affordable, could you please provide examples b/c i see projects in the suburbs of Missississaug, Etobicoke, NY, Scarb, Pickering, Markham, etc that are selling from $350-500 psf.
and i consider the above prices expensive for non-dt Toronto.
IMO, a 25% haircut would bring all prices in line with historical evaluations.
and i don't consider 25% reduction 'doom and gloom' when valuations have double ( and tripled ) in some areas in the past 10 years !
daveto
Active Member
Excellent analysis. These doom'n'gloomers just don't get it!
Look at the Nasdaq from 1998! People were saying it was going to crash, but 3 years later in 2001 it was even higher! If those gloomy forecasts were right, then how could the Nasdaq have gone higher in the next 3 years? Exactly. It couldn't.
The recent past is always a trustworthy indicator of the future. Only a fool pays attention to investment fundamentals any more. Don't these doom'n'gloomers understand that it is different this time?
interested
Senior Member
Love the sarcasm daveto.