Northern Light
Superstar
I think its always important to start with a couple of statements........
1) Apathy rules.
Voter turnout is estimated to have been ~65% that's actually high by U.S. standards and not completely out of line with contemporary Canadian norms.......... but its important nonetheless to remember that 35% didn't vote.
Of the 65% who did, Trump won the popular vote (as thus far counted) by roughly 4 points, 51% to 47% so he obtained the actual voting support of 51% of 65% which is to say the support of 33% of Americans of voting age.
Or put another way 67% of Americans didn't get off the couch to vote for him.
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2) In the U.S. in Canada, and most other countries its an anomaly when voters vote FOR a candidate. Its typical that voters are far more likely to turn out and be steadfast in their choice when motivated by anger.
This naturally does not favour anyone seen to be an incumbent. Particularly one who didn't move hard and fast to disassociated herself w/unpopular policy moves (or inactions)
Remember, upper-middle income to high income Americans are generally doing great right now, typically, but not entirely associated with college education. But anyone in the bottom1/2 of the Country's economic strata are struggling with inflation and low wages and the Dems have precious little to show from their first 2 years of having power in the House, Senate and Oval office for those in that category.
There was no federal minimum wage increase, its still at $7.25 USD; there was no free community college tuition as promised by Biden in the 2020 campaign, no federal mandate for paid sick days, no expansion of paid parental leave.
Yes there was a really good infrastructure package, but the typical, struggling U.S. household....it looked like a pretty big let down. Meanwhile, you see a U.S. southern border that appeared to be out of control, with a government that gave the appearance of indifference for a couple of years, and a then Vice President who said she favoured decriminalizing illegal border crossing........ That's a hard genie to put back in the bottle.
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3) Middle class voters less motivated by reproductive rights and other issues, because they themselves were unaffected in many places. More women now engage in the use of mifepristone and misoprostol (colloquially, the abortion pill (though its two pills) than surgical abortion. Women who need a surgical abortion, and have money, can also travel to where its legal. Similarly the minimum wage isn't their issue.
What motivates the voter who says they are irked by 'pronoun' issues is rarely that issue unto itself. Its the sense that their real needs were ignored in favour of 'pronouns'. Whether that's logical or fair is a different matter, its how they feel.
Yes, some are motivated by hate/sexism/racism/transphobia/homophobia etc. But most are motivated by the same thing as everyone else "What in it for me". Does Trump have the answer for them? Probably not.
But does he need to? That is to say.............all he has to be is the alternative vessel for the disaffected.
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Final note..........last night 7 U.S. States enshrined reproductive rights (access to abortion) in their State Constitutions. Including more than one state that voted Trump.
Equally, the State of Missouri passed a substantial minimum wage hike and a paid sick day mandate; and the votes in Alaska seem to be leaning the same way.
While Florida failed to adopt abortion rights or legalize Marijuana both exceeded 50% support. (Florida requires 60% for ballot initiatives to pass).
I certainly didn't support Trump and share all the concerns about this term may bring, but I do think its important not to broad brush the American electorate as a bunch of neanderthals.
