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2024 United States presidential election

I'm in a mild state of disbelief - WTF happened? Why do so many Americans really believe that Trump is beneficial to them? Are there really that many deeply cynical citizens out there who vote for trash candidates like this out of some bizarre sense of spite??

I think its always important to start with a couple of statements........

1) Apathy rules.

Voter turnout is estimated to have been ~65% that's actually high by U.S. standards and not completely out of line with contemporary Canadian norms.......... but its important nonetheless to remember that 35% didn't vote.

Of the 65% who did, Trump won the popular vote (as thus far counted) by roughly 4 points, 51% to 47% so he obtained the actual voting support of 51% of 65% which is to say the support of 33% of Americans of voting age.

Or put another way 67% of Americans didn't get off the couch to vote for him.

****

2) In the U.S. in Canada, and most other countries its an anomaly when voters vote FOR a candidate. Its typical that voters are far more likely to turn out and be steadfast in their choice when motivated by anger.

This naturally does not favour anyone seen to be an incumbent. Particularly one who didn't move hard and fast to disassociated herself w/unpopular policy moves (or inactions)

Remember, upper-middle income to high income Americans are generally doing great right now, typically, but not entirely associated with college education. But anyone in the bottom1/2 of the Country's economic strata are struggling with inflation and low wages and the Dems have precious little to show from their first 2 years of having power in the House, Senate and Oval office for those in that category.

There was no federal minimum wage increase, its still at $7.25 USD; there was no free community college tuition as promised by Biden in the 2020 campaign, no federal mandate for paid sick days, no expansion of paid parental leave.

Yes there was a really good infrastructure package, but the typical, struggling U.S. household....it looked like a pretty big let down. Meanwhile, you see a U.S. southern border that appeared to be out of control, with a government that gave the appearance of indifference for a couple of years, and a then Vice President who said she favoured decriminalizing illegal border crossing........ That's a hard genie to put back in the bottle.

****

3) Middle class voters less motivated by reproductive rights and other issues, because they themselves were unaffected in many places. More women now engage in the use of mifepristone and misoprostol (colloquially, the abortion pill (though its two pills) than surgical abortion. Women who need a surgical abortion, and have money, can also travel to where its legal. Similarly the minimum wage isn't their issue.

What motivates the voter who says they are irked by 'pronoun' issues is rarely that issue unto itself. Its the sense that their real needs were ignored in favour of 'pronouns'. Whether that's logical or fair is a different matter, its how they feel.

Yes, some are motivated by hate/sexism/racism/transphobia/homophobia etc. But most are motivated by the same thing as everyone else "What in it for me". Does Trump have the answer for them? Probably not.

But does he need to? That is to say.............all he has to be is the alternative vessel for the disaffected.

****

Final note..........last night 7 U.S. States enshrined reproductive rights (access to abortion) in their State Constitutions. Including more than one state that voted Trump.

Equally, the State of Missouri passed a substantial minimum wage hike and a paid sick day mandate; and the votes in Alaska seem to be leaning the same way.

While Florida failed to adopt abortion rights or legalize Marijuana both exceeded 50% support. (Florida requires 60% for ballot initiatives to pass).

I certainly didn't support Trump and share all the concerns about this term may bring, but I do think its important not to broad brush the American electorate as a bunch of neanderthals.
 
I think its always important to start with a couple of statements........

1) Apathy rules.

Voter turnout is estimated to have been ~65% that's actually high by U.S. standards and not completely out of line with contemporary Canadian norms.......... but its important nonetheless to remember that 35% didn't vote.

Of the 65% who did, Trump won the popular vote (as thus far counted) by roughly 4 points, 51% to 47% so he obtained the actual voting support of 51% of 65% which is to say the support of 33% of Americans of voting age.

Or put another way 67% of Americans didn't get off the couch to vote for him.

****

2) In the U.S. in Canada, and most other countries its an anomaly when voters vote FOR a candidate. Its typical that voters are far more likely to turn out and be steadfast in their choice when motivated by anger.

This naturally does not favour anyone seen to be an incumbent. Particularly one who didn't move hard and fast to disassociated herself w/unpopular policy moves (or inactions)

Remember, upper-middle income to high income Americans are generally doing great right now, typically, but not entirely associated with college education. But anyone in the bottom1/2 of the Country's economic strata are struggling with inflation and low wages and the Dems have precious little to show from their first 2 years of having power in the House, Senate and Oval office for those in that category.

There was no federal minimum wage increase, its still at $7.25 USD; there was no free community college tuition as promised by Biden in the 2020 campaign, no federal mandate for paid sick days, no expansion of paid parental leave.

Yes there was a really good infrastructure package, but the typical, struggling U.S. household....it looked like a pretty big let down. Meanwhile, you see a U.S. southern border that appeared to be out of control, with a government that gave the appearance of indifference for a couple of years, and a then Vice President who said she favoured decriminalizing illegal border crossing........ That's a hard genie to put back in the bottle.

****

3) Middle class voters less motivated by reproductive rights and other issues, because they themselves were unaffected in many places. More women now engage in the use of mifepristone and misoprostol (colloquially, the abortion pill (though its two pills) than surgical abortion. Women who need a surgical abortion, and have money, can also travel to where its legal. Similarly the minimum wage isn't their issue.

What motivates the voter who says they are irked by 'pronoun' issues is rarely that issue unto itself. Its the sense that their real needs were ignored in favour of 'pronouns'. Whether that's logical or fair is a different matter, its how they feel.

Yes, some are motivated by hate/sexism/racism/transphobia/homophobia etc. But most are motivated by the same thing as everyone else "What in it for me". Does Trump have the answer for them? Probably not.

But does he need to? That is to say.............all he has to be is the alternative vessel for the disaffected.

****

Final note..........last night 7 U.S. States enshrined reproductive rights (access to abortion) in their State Constitutions. Including more than one state that voted Trump.

Equally, the State of Missouri passed a substantial minimum wage hike and a paid sick day mandate; and the votes in Alaska seem to be leaning the same way.

While Florida failed to adopt abortion rights or legalize Marijuana both exceeded 50% support. (Florida requires 60% for ballot initiatives to pass).

I certainly didn't support Trump and share all the concerns about this term may bring, but I do think its important not to broad brush the American electorate as a bunch of neanderthals.
I admit I don't have the facts of where the votes came from. But, I have a feeling that this election result had something to do about gender. Those Americans of all stripes who voted were clear in their support for Trump - a disaster for the Democrats. As an aside, the DJIA was up 3.18 % last time I checked ( and the TSX was also up 169 points). This windfall benefits whom ?
 
I admit I don't have the facts of where the votes came from. But, I have a feeling that this election result had something to do about gender. Those Americans of all stripes who voted were clear in their support for Trump - a disaster for the Democrats. As an aside, the DJIA was up 3.18 % last time I checked ( and the TSX was also up 169 points). This windfall benefits whom ?

Republicans care a lot less about the deficit when a Republican is in the White House. Market knows money will be flowing.
 
I'm in a mild state of disbelief - WTF happened? Why do so many Americans really believe that Trump is beneficial to them? Are there really that many deeply cynical citizens out there who vote for trash candidates like this out of some bizarre sense of spite??

I don't get why Canadians are so surprised. The same things making Trudeau unpopular here are making Democrats unpopular there. From inflation to immigration. And the Americans have had higher inflation and worse immigration problems than us.

I'd actually be very curious to see what impact Russian and Chinese troll farms and misinformation bots had on influencing the outcome. That is something that needs to be looked at in depth, because it's difficult to comprehend that so many people willingly voted for this guy...

They definitely helped. But I doubt they can do much if the base sentiment isn't already there.

I guess our best hope now, given Trump's advanced age and poor health, is that he just drops dead while in office. But that would make Vance president, and is that really an improvement?

Trump spent his last term mostly watching TV and rage tweeting. He'll be doing much the same this time while Vance and the Heritage Foundation run the country.
 
One point that is probably related to this forum. Blue states aren't doing a great job with housing. This is driving people to red and swing states that are increasing their Electoral College share. And a lot of those NIMBYs are supposedly progressive.
 
Blue states aren't doing a great job with housing. This is driving people to red and swing states that are increasing their Electoral College share. And a lot of those NIMBYs are supposedly progressive.
"Buy a liberal a home, make a conservative", Rush Limbaugh
"Once Democrats buy property, they become Republicans", Will Rogers
"The more people who own their own homes, the more people there are who want to protect what they have, and in that sense, to make them more conservative." PM Margaret Thatcher, 1988 speech.

Perhaps under Trumpism this is turned around to: "deny a person the ability or opportunity to buy a home, make a conservative"
 
For those surprised by Gen Z and millennial men voting for Trump, you haven’t been paying attention’s to what has been happening in European elections.

i wasn't all that surprised Trump won. Europe is voting right wing thanks to mass immigration, rising crime, and I expect.the US and Canada follow the trend.
 
For those surprised by Gen Z and millennial men voting for Trump, you haven’t been paying attention’s to what has been happening in European elections.

i wasn't all that surprised Trump won. Europe is voting right wing thanks to mass immigration, rising crime, and I expect.the US and Canada follow the trend.
Last month a far-right party won the election in Austria for the first time since WWII, but all the other parties refused to work with them to build a governing coalition. I feel like that's going to eventually bite them all in the ass.
 
There will be lots of takes coming in. But I like this this thread here. The Democrat brand is in trouble. And it's not just because of failings at the national campaign.


Will add that there are applicable lessons for Canada too. If progressives don't move on housing and crime in cities, the LPC and NDPC should expect a similar backlash.
 
When you look at the margins that cost Harris the Electoral College it's getting obvious that pandering to campus liberal positions doesn't work.


Did Harris actually pander to campus liberals? Save for abortion, which has a majority of voters' support, and trans rights, she ran a very safe, centrist campaign. Trump held the standard Democratic position on Gaza, offered no big budget universal programs, and tried to out-Trump Trump on the border on several occasions.
 

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