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2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)

Again with this liberal mentality that banning guns somehow fixes the issue when all it does is punish the law abiding gun owner.

How about he comes out with a proper plan to reduce the amount of illegal hand guns being smuggled into the province.
Any crime involving any kind of firearm deserves NO BAIL. Period.
 
Again with this liberal mentality that banning guns somehow fixes the issue when all it does is punish the law abiding gun owner.

How about he comes out with a proper plan to reduce the amount of illegal hand guns being smuggled into the province.

The evidence does not bear out that assertion.

Australia took the approach of a ban and did see a material reduction in fire arms crime.

It certainly doesn't wipe it out; that isn't the argument for such a thing.

The argument is that a certain amount of guns obtained by the criminal element were obtained legally; a further amount are thefts from lawful gun owners, and gun retailers.

By removing those sources, you force every criminal to obtain the weapon illegally, in so doing you force the price up significantly.

Since not every criminal can afford the inflated price, fewer criminals carry guns, and the result is less gun crime.

The evidence does bear this out.

The percentage effect is difficult to measure across jurisdictions and time, but is generally well into double-digits.


From the above:

1650406928998.png


You will notice the substantial decline in firearms homicides after the ban on most gun ownership was implemented in 1996; note also the decline in firearms suicides as well.

****

One finds similar evidence in Scotland after stiff gun control was implemented.


From the above:

"The year of the Dunblane massacre, gun homicides peaked at 84 across the UK – the most on record. Today, gun killings have dropped to almost a third of that. In England and Wales in 2012/13, the police recorded 30 gun homicides, 12 fewer than the previous year, and the lowest figure since the National Crime Recording Standard was introduced in 2002."


One may wish to oppose tighter gun controls........but the evidence does indeed show they reduce gun violence substantially.
 
Any crime involving any kind of firearm deserves NO BAIL. Period.
That’s dumb, as absolute positions usually are. My 75 y/o mother in-law had her dead husband’s shotgun in her closet for decades. It was unregistered, improperly stored, with shells sitting beside it, a clear firearms crime. https://firearmslaw.ca/resources/firearms-information/firearms-law/criminal-code/.

On my suggestion she eventually called TPS and asked them to pick it up. At past midnight two officers arrived, admired the late 1970s gun and especially the box of 1980s shells, one exclaimed, “these are in pristine condition“, a nice chat, declined proffered coffees and left. I’m sure those shells went to the TPS range, the gun‘s probably at someone’s cottage now.

There’s always nuance in law enforcement.
 
Provincial NDP out w/a very sensible promise, that if elected, they will cover the cost of virtually all forms of contraception (pill, Plan B, IUDs etc.)

They will release their fully costed platform later; but based on a similar promise made in BC, it would be ~250M per year.

An investment that would pay off in spades as evidenced by studies from the U.S. State of Colorado, which covered similar costs for those with extremely low incomes and saw
payback in less than 3 years in reduced benefits and fewer abortions.

 
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Just heard on the news that a new poll has the PC's and Libs virtually tied at only 4 points apart. The NDP's support on the other hand has cratered.
 
Just heard on the news that a new poll has the PC's and Libs virtually tied at only 4 points apart. The NDP's support on the other hand has cratered.

I think an average of the polls out is always a better indicator of where things likely stand (though there is still, always, a margin of error)

That said:

1650566862825.png


From Polling Canada on Twitter:

 
Provincial NDP out w/a very sensible promise, that if elected, they will cover the cost of virtually all forms of contraception (pill, Plan B, IUDs etc.)

They will release their fully costed platform later; but based on a similar promise made in BC, it would be ~250M per year.

An investment that would pay off in spades as evidenced by studies from the U.S. State of Colorado, which covered similar costs for those with extremely low incomes and saw
payback in less than 3 years in reduced benefits and fewer abortions.

OHIP already covers male vasectomies. See link.
 
OHIP already covers male vasectomies. See link.

I'm aware.

The thing is, most men don't choose to get those; and those who do are typically older, often in a long-term relationship, and have children already.

The importance of this gesture is giving control to women; at virtually any age (from puberty onwards) ..... and ensuring that money is not a barrier to accessing the care in question.

Likewise, I would argue strongly for providing the appropriate training to pharmacy staff and making contraception available w/o a prescription to further reduce hassle.

I'm not so sure about taking it full OTC as it is strong medication, with potential side effects; but I would aim for the fewest barriers possible.
 

Ontario Liberals in 'striking distance' of PCs, poll suggests

From link.

The Ontario election race appears to be tightening ahead of the formal start of the campaign, with one new poll putting the Liberals only four points back of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative party.

The Abacus Data survey of 1,500 Ontarians found that 36 per cent of decided voters plan to cast a ballot for Ford’s PC party in June, compared to 32 per cent who intend to vote for Steven Del Duca’s Liberal party and 23 per cent who said they would vote for Andrea Horwath and the NDP. About six per cent of respondents indicated that they vote for the Green party while four per cent said that they would vote for another party entirely.

The Liberals are up four points from a similar survey conducted in January while the Tories are down one point and the NDP are down two points.

In a release accompanying the poll results, Abascus Data CEO David Coletto said the Liberals do appear to be “within striking distance in the hypothetical ballot,” but he cautioned that they “still have a lot of work to do if they are going to win the election,” starting with the profile of their leader.
The poll found that nearly six out of 10 Ontarians (59 per cent) expressed a degree of unfamiliarity with Del Duca. Only 39 per cent said that they were unfamiliar with Horwath and only 15 per cent said that of Ford.

Ford also had a considerable advantage when it came to personal popularity.

Approximately 41 per cent of respondents said that they had a positive impression of the PC leader, up nine points since January.

About 31 per cent of respondents said that they had a positive impression of Horwath, compared to 30 per cent who said that they had a negative impression.

Del Duca was the only leader of the three main parties with a negative score. About 22 per cent of respondents said that they had a positive impression of him but 27 per cent said that they had a negative impression. A further 27 per cent expressed a “neutral” opinion of the Liberal leader.

Meanwhile, when it came to who would make the best premier 35 per cent of respondents identified Ford as their pick. Horwath was chosen by 17 per cent of respondents and Del Duca was chosen by 12 per cent of respondents.

“Steven Del Duca remains unknown to a large portion of the electorate and those that do have an impression of him are more likely to view him negatively than positively. He is well back in third when respondents are asked who will make the best premier,” Coletto noted in the release. “What is unknown at this point is whether vote intention will align more closely with the perceived best premier or whether the Liberals can hold onto their support despite how people feel about Mr. Del Duca.”
 
I don't sense a strong 'anybody but Ford' sentiment that would be enough to close the gap for the Libs or NDP with the PCs. Barring any big opinion movers once the writ drops, it seems clear that Doug will be re-elected.

Campaigns have a life of their own...........

That said, I don't believe Ontario has ever returned a provincial majority government with less than 37% of the vote..........

Which suggests, at the very least, a strong possibility of a minority government.

To my understanding both the Libs and NDP have publicly said they will not support a Ford Minority government....

So I wouldn't yet presume a Premier Ford post-election.........though, regrettably, that certainly is a plausible outcome.
 

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