2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)

[Richard White]

I'll put down my prognostications now:

PC: 78
LIB: 24
NDP: 21
GRN: 1

Anyone else want to go on record now?

PC: 100
Lib: 14
NDP: 8
Green: 2

It will be a blowout win for the PC's while the NDP has their leader turfed. The NDP will go back to their usual borderline non-official party status while the Liberals will rebuild with Del Duca at the helm.

 

[christiesplits]

My prediction is closer to @Jonny5 than @Richard White

PC: 83
NDP: 22
Liberal: 18
Green: 1

- I think Del Duca ekes out a win in Vaughan-Woodbridge, but is still forced to resign by September. The OLP are shut out east of Oakville.
- Doug Ford makes some gains in NDP territory, including Northern Ontario, London and Hamilton.
- Horwath agrees to resign once a new NDP leader is picked in 2023.

 

[Jonny5]

According to preliminary figures released by Elections Ontario, 1,066,545 voters – 9.92 per cent of eligible voters in Ontario – have attended a returning or satellite office and voted during the expanded advance voting period.

Compared to the 2018 Ontario election, 698,609 voters, or 6.8 per cent of eligible voters, chose to cast their ballot, during five days of advance voting.

Normally higher advance voter turnout means higher election day turnout, but I wonder if that correlation still holds up now that people appear much more accustomed to advance voting.

 

[zang]

Normally higher advance voter turnout means higher election day turnout, but I wonder if that correlation still holds up now that people appear much more accustomed to advance voting.

If my poll station weren't in my building (like, for some reason it wasn't for the Federal election), I'd have voted early as well.

I have a feeling Doug isn't doing as well as polls are predicting. The selection bias of phone calls alone mean a lot of younger voters aren't getting counted. Who the hell under 50 answers a call from someone not in their contacts, let alone if you're under 30 and voice calls are a "quaint" feature on a device used for almost anything but. And the self-selection bias of online polling almost always favours angry conservatives.

I think Doug may win with a minority, and if so I hope the NDP and Liberals take a cue from their Federal counterparts.

 

[EddyMCD]

While I would love the PCs to only get a minority, I'm very skeptical about it. Though I would have to imagine more early votes are bad for DoFo. So maybe we'll get lucky. I can see some polls being wrong, but all of them being wrong would be pretty implausible.

 

[zang]

While I would love the PCs to only get a minority, I'm very skeptical about it. Though I would have to imagine more early votes are bad for DoFo. So maybe we'll get lucky. I can see some polls being wrong, but all of them being wrong would be pretty implausible.

And early polls put the NDP in a statistical tie with the PCs the last election. And let's not ignore the will of the electorate to get rid of someone they consider repulsive at the cost of voting in someone they might not even like; it's why we got Ford to begin with.

 

[christiesplits]

Looks like another misstep by the Liberal vetting team (from an NDP partisan account).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531620156539035650

 

[Adjei]

Some wishful thinking in this thread.

 

[Admiral Beez]

While I would love the PCs to only get a minority, I'm very skeptical about it. Though I would have to imagine more early votes are bad for DoFo. So maybe we'll get lucky. I can see some polls being wrong, but all of them being wrong would be pretty implausible.

My guess is the PCs win the largest majority since Harris in 1995.

Some wishful thinking in this thread.

More tribal thinking. I suspect many here aren’t in tune with how much of the province outside of Toronto thinks.

 

[Towered]

My guess is the PCs win the largest majority since Harris in 1995.

More tribal thinking. I suspect many here aren’t in tune with how much of the province outside of Toronto thinks.

I hope that won't be the case, though I get the sense that neither the Liberals nor the NDP have managed to connect their message with voters. Horwath is utterly stale at this point, and Del Duca has all the charisma of a toadstool. I've been saying since he was bizarrely elected party leader that they immediately imploded their election opportunity, and that unflattering reality is bearing out now, even against a pathetic populist like Ford. When I hear him speak all I can picture is Smithers from the Simpsons in my head, and when I see him it's even worse - he looks like a turtle and I find it really distracting that you never see his teeth when he talks. And the cynical attempt by his party to make him less geeky looking by suddenly losing the glasses does nothing to change his image.

I say both party leaders are (justifiably) toast if the PC's win a majority.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I hope that won't be the case, though I get the sense that neither the Liberals nor the NDP have managed to connect their message with voters. I say both of their leaders are (justifiably) toast if the PC's win a majority.

The Liberals should have NEVER have gone back into their history bin and put forth anyone who was ever a cabinet minister under Mother Wynne or McGuinty. Del Duca should have been rejected outright. The party needs a fresh start, no one with any history beyond backbencher under Wynne or McGuinty's government.

As for the NDP, they screwed up so badly in the 2018 election, where the Liberals presented the worst, most universally hated candidate since Rae in 1995, and still couldn't win. And now, they're going to lose again to the PCs notwithstanding the over forty thousand dead from Covid due in most part neglect at for profit LTC homes. I voted NDP in 2018, but will never vote for anything with Wong-Tam's useless mug on it, so voted Lib this time.

 

[picard102]

Was Gerard Kennedy on vacation or something?

 

[evandyk]

If the Liberals and NDP split the vote pretty much evenly in the mid-20s, there is no way the PCs don't win another majority. The vote has to break decisively one way or another to prevent that, and there's no sign of that happening.

 

[Admiral Beez]

If the Liberals and NDP split the vote pretty much evenly in the mid-20s, there is no way the PCs don't win another majority. The vote has to break decisively one way or another to prevent that, and there's no sign of that happening.

I predict a repeat of Mike Harris. Two back to back majorities, but at the tail end of the second majority in 2026 the people tire and the OPCs squabble, leading to another decade of Liberal government.

 

[Jonny5]

I predict a repeat of Mike Harris. Two back to back majorities, but at the tail end of the second majority in 2026 the people tire and the OPCs squabble, leading to another decade of Liberal government.

Oh! Now I want to know who will be the new Ernie Eves?