2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[lead82]

Lots of pro-Kremlin talking points there. Destroying a ton of infrastructure in Kursk is useful. As is the ability to flank behind Russia's Eastern Grouping. Lastly, it's more than just embarrassing for Putin. Russia is sending literal teenagers (conscripts) to fight the Ukrainians and thousands of them are ending up as POWs. This is creating a whole bunch of political problems in Russia. If their moms get pissed off enough, Putin will have no choice but to pull back elsewhere to reinforce Kursk, which creates openings elsewhere. It was protests movements of conscripts' mothers that ended the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan.

No Pro-Kremlin talking points just reality on the ground. What you say is true but the small damage being done in Kursk won’t have much impact on the strategic lands Russia is slowly gaining in Donetsk oblast. Yes Russia is sending teenagers but it cares not as they have more men to churn through. Putin doesn’t care about people’s lives at all so this is not in this thinking. Mothers protests won’t matter to Putin and while it may have had a role to play in Afghanistan Ukraine is different story. Afghanistan was pointless endeavour. Ukrainian land and Crimea are strategic for Russia to control the Black Sea and to gain access to rich minerals in Ukraines eastern industrial heartland.

I’d be curious to see what happens next. Putin doesn’t seem to care about Kursk incursion. He may even be willing to give it up for Crimea and Donetsk. Ukraines next step will tell if this incursion was justified for any long term gain or just a waste of manpower while losing key lands in the east.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Putin doesn’t seem to care about Kursk incursion. He may even be willing to give it up for Crimea and Donetsk.

At times of invasion Russian leaders have always traded land for time or later leverage. Putin knows that Ukraine doesn't have the stomach to harm Russian civilians in Kursk and that its NATO backers won’t allow Russian territory to be annexed postwar. So unless the people rise up, there's no harm to Putin. Instead he’s focusing on the main goal in south-east Ukraine, including yesterday’s capture of Zalizne.

 

[DSC]

Kyiv Post from today: SEE: https://www.kyivpost.com/

US President Joe Biden spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday and announced a new round of military aid for Kyiv that the Pentagon valued at $125 million.

The call between the two leaders came ahead of Ukraine’s independence day, and on the same day that Washington announced sweeping sanctions against hundreds of individuals and companies tied to Russia’s invasion of the country.

“I am proud we will announce a new package of military aid for Ukraine today,” Biden said in a statement.

and

The Norwegian government reported through its official website on Friday that it was “paving the way for the transfer of Norwegian defense technologies to Ukraine,” by licensing the Nordic Ammunition Company (Nammo) to set up a 155mm artillery ammunition production facility in Ukraine.

Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said: “Our government has taken several steps to increase the production of artillery ammunition in Norway. At the same time, we recognize the importance of strengthening the capacity of Ukrainians to produce modern ammunition in Ukraine.”

 

[Admiral Beez]

2025 will be a new stage in this war.

1. The Russian economy is proving to be robust
2. The Ukrainian people are increasingly supporting a negotiated solution.
3. Starting in January, we can expect dramatic changes to US foreign policy and lethal/monetary aid
4. The EU and NATO are reticent about Zelenskyy's victory plan, and have pushed out NATO membership.

This was why everyone was looking to the 2023 spring offensive for Ukraine to make considerable gains. That was Ukraine's chance. Now it's spring 2025, and I expect much of the support for Ukraine's total victory and reclaiming all its pre-war 2022 or 2014 territory has dramatically waned.

 

[Towered]

Nothing less than a humiliating defeat for Russia is acceptable. No other outcome should be considered whatsoever.

 

[kEiThZ]

2025 will be a new stage in this war.

1. The Russian economy is proving to be robust
2. The Ukrainian people are increasingly supporting a negotiated solution.
3. Starting in January, we can expect dramatic changes to US foreign policy and lethal/monetary aid
4. The EU and NATO are reticent about Zelenskyy's victory plan, and have pushed out NATO membership.

This was why everyone was looking to the 2023 spring offensive for Ukraine to make considerable gains. That was Ukraine's chance. Now it's spring 2025, and I expect much of the support for Ukraine's total victory and reclaiming all its pre-war 2022 or 2014 territory has dramatically waned.

Agree with most. Not sure I agree with the Russian economy being robust. It's proving more robust to sanctions. That doesn't mean it's not degrading and in trouble. Putin needed Trump to win otherwise the cracks were really going to show in 2025. Vehemently agree on how we all screwed up in not helping the Ukrainians win. Every dictator will now be emboldended. Particularly on interfering in democracy, which is now shown to be high payoff. But also on war, because democracies are weak, even on simply paying for war.

Heck, the Russians are so emboldened they are getting on state terrorism bandwagon:

Russia behind plot to plant bombs on cargo planes, Western official says

The case is the latest example of a wider Russian sabotage campaign to disrupt Western support for Ukraine, officials say.

www.nbcnews.com

Nothing less than a humiliating defeat for Russia is acceptable. No other outcome should be considered whatsoever.

I agree with you in spirit. I don't know how we get there in practice when countries like our own have failed to step up with enough to beat Russia.

 

[kEiThZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1854261260533272751

If you know, you know.

 

[afransen]

Agree with most. Not sure I agree with the Russian economy being robust. It's proving more robust to sanctions. That doesn't mean it's not degrading and in trouble. Putin needed Trump to win otherwise the cracks were really going to show in 2025. Vehemently agree on how we all screwed up in not helping the Ukrainians win. Every dictator will now be emboldended. Particularly on interfering in democracy, which is now shown to be high payoff. But also on war, because democracies are weak, even on simply paying for war.

Heck, the Russians are so emboldened they are getting on state terrorism bandwagon:

Russia behind plot to plant bombs on cargo planes, Western official says

The case is the latest example of a wider Russian sabotage campaign to disrupt Western support for Ukraine, officials say.

www.nbcnews.com

I agree with you in spirit. I don't know how we get there in practice when countries like our own have failed to step up with enough to beat Russia.

Ukraine is a bit of a pyrrhic victory for Putin. He may have partially achieved his objectives but it came at a very heavy cost.

 

[kEiThZ]

Ukraine is a bit of a pyrrhic victory for Putin. He may have partially achieved his objectives but it came at a very heavy cost.

Putin doesn't care about the cost. That's the power of dictatorships. They are ever willing to sacrifice millions for personal vanity and grandeur.

Just look at the Dugin boast. They feel completely vindicated. They pulled off Brexit. Now they are going to get the Trump turmoil they wanted the first time. They got Germany to commit economic suicide through environmentalism. They've won substantially in basically destroying the rules based order and rolling back democracy across the world.

 

[afransen]

But he won't be able to roll on to Poland after the hoped-for dissolution of NATO, for instance.

Also: prepare for eastern Europe and Scandinavians working on their nuclear weapons programs.

 

[kEiThZ]

But he won't be able to roll on to Poland after the hoped-for dissolution of NATO, for instance.

Also: prepare for eastern Europe and Scandinavians working on their nuclear weapons programs.

There's several risks that are now being gamed out. The fear isn't Poland. The fear is that he decides to test NATO resolve by taking a chunk out of a Baltic state. He could do very well so this early in a Trump administration and dare Americans and Western Europeans to go to a war for a place a lot of them don't know exist. There's also the problem of Trojan horses like Hungary and Slovakia stalling European action.

Poland is rearming. But they've got years to go before they can genuinely crush Russia. An immediate fight right now would be bloody for Poles without at least the Balts and Scandinavians.

Poland warns Moscow an attack on Baltic states will trigger ‘total confrontation’ - London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com

Poland warns Moscow: any attack on the Baltic states will trigger a swift and forceful response. NATO won't hesitate to defend its allies.

londonlovesbusiness.com

 

[Richard White]

There's also the problem of Trojan horses like Hungary

I can tell you from experience, Hungarians don't like Trump.

The only reason Orbán won was because of rejigging of electoral districts.

A few years ago he rejigged everything to ensure that those areas with limited access to non-state media got more seats in Parliament than those in places like Budapest which can make an informed decision.

In larger cities like Szeged, Budapest, Pécs and Debrecen where it's more urban and educated you will find that Orbán isn't as popular.

His thinking was that if he puts on a good show for the elderly and country bumpkins who only have access to state run media he can sell himself as their saviour.

Hungary has a general election coming up in the spring of 2026. I doubt you will see many radical moves in Hungary.

 

[kEiThZ]

I can tell you from experience, Hungarians don't like Trump.

Dude. I can't buy this. Given that you have proven to be susceptible to misinformation on here (let's just go over your Ukrainian stances), I find it hard to believe the land of Orban doesn't like Trump (if not live him), coming from you.

The truth is some cultures just love strongmen and don't get democracy. Hungarians are probably no different than Latin Americans like that. This cultural preference is also a probable contributing factor in the democratic backsliding in the US. See all those Hispanics voting for Trump. Machismo sells for some.

 

[lenaitch]

a place a lot of them don't know exist

For many Americans that could be most anywhere outside of the US - or possibly their home state.

 

[Richard White]

Dude. I can't buy this. Given that you have proven to be susceptible to misinformation on here (let's just go over your Ukrainian stances), I find it hard to believe the land of Orban doesn't like Trump (if not live him), coming from you.

The truth is some cultures just love strongmen and don't get democracy. Hungarians are probably no different than Latin Americans like that. This cultural preference is also a probable contributing factor in the democratic backsliding in the US. See all those Hispanics voting for Trump. Machismo sells for some.

Excuse me? I would kindly ask that you watch your language.

I've seen their state media, I've been across the country and I've talked to average Hungarians.

Also, I have family who are in the Hungarian armed forces. These are not low level recruits, they are up there in rank and position.

Trust me when I say, Trump isn't liked by all Hungarians.