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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Now that Ukraine has jumped the shark and invaded Russia without much of a hmph from the US or NATO, I would not be surprised to see a larger Ukrainian flanking movement coming out of the Kharkiv Oblast, toward Belgorod before smashing into occupied Luhansk Oblast to take the Russian trenches and minefields from the rear, while liberating Severodonetsk. All coordinated with a frontal Ukrainian attack from Kharkiv along with ATACMS, HIMARs and Storm Shadow strikes on command and control targets within both Russia and Luhansk.

It's about eight to ten hours driving time, if you're in an Abrams or Leopard 2. Here's the route I suggest.

 
I love this surprise offensive. Take the fight right to those disgusting bastards.

As the phrase goes, "Create dilemmas. Not problems."

This offensive creates so many dilemmas. First off, the Russians have to choose where they put stretched resources. Any place they pull off the line creates vulnerabilities. Going forward, they'll have to keep forces there to avoid a repeat. Less resources. Next, they have to choose. Defend Kursk or reinforce their rear. The Ukrainians could swing south and absolutely ravage the rear of the Russian Eastern grouping.
 
The Ukrainians could swing south and absolutely ravage the rear of the Russian Eastern grouping.
Agreed, and there’s little to no antitank minefields or defensive fortifications on the Russian side of the border. This presents Ukraine’s mechanized units a freedom of movement that they just don’t have within Russian-held areas of Ukraine.

My hope is this Kursk move is to divert Russian attention from a surprise amphibious assault on Crimea. I'm suggesting a modern, but secret conversion of merchant ships to LST. A dozen ship sail from Odessa, declared as grain carriers under foreign flags. But at the last moment, while under F-16 and drone cover the ships hoist the Ukrainian flag and turn for Crimea!

rmm-2003_222_11-jpg.792627


Here's a beach in Crimea this summer, but with a dozen such ships. Once she stops, the disguised bow doors open and AFU tanks, AFVs, assault troops and engineering/support units pour out.

 
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This in Kiev Post would seem to be 'on brand' for Putin. SEE: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37500

The Russian news site Vestka, citing sources in the government and parliament, reports that because of what is happening near Kursk following Ukraine’s invasion, where Moscow has lost control over a territory of 1,000 square kilometers (621 square miles) and 82 settlements, criminal cases may be taken out against representatives of the military, security and civilian authorities, who allowed this situation to happen.

One of its contacts said that when the news of the initial stages of Ukraine’s move into Kursk took place on Tuesday, Aug. 6, it was met with apathy amongst officials who did not consider it to be a serious threat.

That view was exemplified by the performance of Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff at the next day’s briefing. Live on television he dismissed the significance of what was happening, claiming that Ukraine’s advance had been stopped and the “enemy was defeated” losing more than 100 of its troops, 54 armored vehicles and seven tanks. This, even though social media from both sides was still reporting Kyiv’s forces were still moving forward.

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has captured hundreds of enemy soldiers in one of Russia’s worst defeats of the war. Now Kyiv thinks it has negotiating leverage to bring its own fighters home.

That all changed on Aug. 8-9, as the buildup of Ukrainian troops, their advance into the Kursk region, and the area occupied by Kyiv’s forces all increased. The source said: “We got scared,” as reports came in of a Russian military column being struck in the village of Oktyabrsky near Rylsk.

The source said they knew it was serious when “Someone began collecting humanitarian aid, I know that people even went there and delivered aid over the weekend.”

According to a Bloomberg report, Gerasimov had received intelligence on Kyiv’s plans weeks before, but chose to ignore it and did not inform Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The fact that he had fallen out of favor as a result was when Putin first tasked Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and then Secretary of Russia’s State Council, Aleksey Dyumin, overall control of the “counter-terrorist operation” to expel Ukraine’s forces.

As things deteriorated, from the Russian perspective, in Kursk, so they did for Gerasimov. Despite having been head of the General Staff for 14 years, he has been excluded from operational planning meetings for the defense of the Kursk region that were chaired by Andrei Belousov, the Minister of Defense on Aug. 15.

Having previously been considered “fireproof” Russian sources believe he is now definitely under threat, with yet another serious failure giving Putin an excuse to continue “cleansing” of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which began with the dismissal of the former Minister, Sergei Shoigu.

The extraordinary campaign to arrest generals and senior Defense Ministry officials accused of corruption that began in May is being done either with the agreement or even the instigation of the Kremlin, according to government sources cited by the Moscow Times.

According to those sources, the arrests were prompted by the FSB and other special services to deflect criticism for the failures of Russia’s “special military operation” and to gain control of defense budgets. The continuing disaster in Kursk may give them the chance to further purge the ministry’s staff of Shoigu’s allies.

The disruption that widescale arrests and dismissals among the upper echelons of the Russian military may improve the performance of its generals in the long term, but it’s hard to see how it can do anything but benefit Ukraine in the short run.
 
The Kursk incursion is wonderful, but what is the long term plan? Do they intend to hold it? A some point, the Ukrainian supply lines get long and vulnerable, and the whole thing draws resources away from the southern front where Russia is still very much a threat.

They could intend to use the newly occupied Russian territory as a bargaining chip, but what if Russia doesn't bite right away?

Opening up an amphibious new front in Crimea would take a lot of resources as well as time to assemble and coordinate. Sneaking up on a beach WWII-style may no longer be realistic.
 
The Kursk incursion is wonderful, but what is the long term plan? Do they intend to hold it? A some point, the Ukrainian supply lines get long and vulnerable, and the whole thing draws resources away from the southern front where Russia is still very much a threat.

They could intend to use the newly occupied Russian territory as a bargaining chip, but what if Russia doesn't bite right away?

Opening up an amphibious new front in Crimea would take a lot of resources as well as time to assemble and coordinate. Sneaking up on a beach WWII-style may no longer be realistic.

My guess is they press on and utilize the resources they find locally.

Putin rules with an Iron Fist but the longer Ukrainians stay inside Russia and the deeper they go it slowly melts that fist.

His image of impenetrable security is being tarnished every day.

Ukraine knows this and eventually if they go deep enough into Russia, maybe.. just maybe.. Russians will see the truth about Putin.

Putin should stay away from Windows at this point. Apples too but that's another story.

Given the situation there is likely talk about Putin being able to effectively lead after allowing Ukraine to invade Russian proper.
 
My guess is they press on and utilize the resources they find locally.
No. Zelenskyy has ignored Russia’s history of trading land for time. Ukraine’s plan, imo was push into the Kursk in order to force Putin to transfer troops out of southern Ukraine. But it’s not working, and Putin is letting the Ukrainians take land in Kursk that they cannot hold longterm, while Russia continues to push into Ukraine.

 
No. Zelenskyy has ignored Russia’s history of trading land for time. Ukraine’s plan, imo was push into the Kursk in order to force Putin to transfer troops out of southern Ukraine. But it’s not working, and Putin is letting the Ukrainians take land in Kursk that they cannot hold longterm, while Russia continues to push into Ukraine.


Optics.

If Ukraine can show themselves to be humanitarian and not Nazi like they may win support.
 
The incursion is a fools errand. It boosts morale and pokes the bear. Beyond embarrassing Putin it does nothing for the Ukrainian cause. The eastern front is losing ground and while Kursk can be a bargaining chip Ukraine knows they can’t hold it. Unless there is a second incursion to take back Kherson or to break the land bridge this episode wastes valuable resources in exchange for more missiles and damage to Ukrainian held cities.
 
The incursion is a fools errand. It boosts morale and pokes the bear. Beyond embarrassing Putin it does nothing for the Ukrainian cause. The eastern front is losing ground and while Kursk can be a bargaining chip Ukraine knows they can’t hold it. Unless there is a second incursion to take back Kherson or to break the land bridge this episode wastes valuable resources in exchange for more missiles and damage to Ukrainian held cities.

Lots of pro-Kremlin talking points there. Destroying a ton of infrastructure in Kursk is useful. As is the ability to flank behind Russia's Eastern Grouping. Lastly, it's more than just embarrassing for Putin. Russia is sending literal teenagers (conscripts) to fight the Ukrainians and thousands of them are ending up as POWs. This is creating a whole bunch of political problems in Russia. If their moms get pissed off enough, Putin will have no choice but to pull back elsewhere to reinforce Kursk, which creates openings elsewhere. It was protests movements of conscripts' mothers that ended the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan.
 
Granted the Kursk region is motherland territory, Crimea still has massive strategic value to Russia and they won't turn away from it easily.

We may be over estimating information flow inside of Russia. The population, especially mothers, can only get upset if they have a clue what it going on, which they may not.

One side benefit to the excursion is a little demonstration of what Ukraine is capable of when there are little to no restrictions for the use of donated arms and ordnance.
 
The population, especially mothers, can only get upset if they have a clue what it going on, which they may not.

Telegram is now getting filled up with stories. Easy clue is when their kids stop answering the phones (which are taken away before they deploy). I'd say this news appears to have rattled Russians much more than the Ukraine invasion. Mostly because those dying in Ukraine were mostly seen as volunteers. These are now kids who have no choice. And include some middle class kids.
 

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