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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

If we are going down the rabbit hole of who may or may not be at a state funeral you may want to think about whether Putin will come to represent Russia.

In Ukraine's case the Deputy President is actually the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the parliament so in normal times it would be he who would represent the President..
Well ... (From: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...skiy-counteroffensive-pressure-russian-troops )

Putin not considering attending Queen Elizabeth funeral, says spokesperson​

President Putin is “not considering” attending the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, his spokesperson has said.

Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti quoted Dmitry Peskov saying the Kremlin would “wait for the announcement of the protocol of the ceremony” before deciding who would represent Russia.
 
This brought a tear to my eye. So much like my Ukrainian-Canadian grandmother-in-law, mother-in-law and all my wife's family.


I saw somewhere that the interesting thing about this video is that those women are speaking Russian. Not Ukrainian. And they are still so grateful for these soldiers liberating them. Makes the whole Russian narrative about liberating Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine BS.
 

A good animation if you want to see the Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv in the last 3 days:

Stunning progress. Once they capture Kupiansk, the Russian supply lines to Izyum to the south will be cut off. That will further put their positions in Donetsk and Luhansk in peril. With the continued steady flow of Western weaponry to the Ukrainians, I really can't see how the Russians will be able to prevent getting pushed out of the country completely over the course of the next year. What will be truly fascinating to watch will be this scenario eventually repeat itself in Crimea.
 
Like I said. Collapse.....


Georgia, Syria, Kazakhstan are next.

After that comes the republics inside Russia.

As much as I dream of it happening, it's very difficult to imagine a reality where Russia itself splinters apart into many independent states. Then again, history has a knack for unthinkable surprises on occasion (eg. 1991 Soviet collapse)...
 
As much as I dream of it happening, it's very difficult to imagine a reality where Russia itself splinters apart into many independent states. Then again, history has a knack for unthinkable surprises on occasion (eg. 1991 Soviet collapse)...

I do not see that happening.

There are many backwater portions to Russia with nothing more than country bumpkins. Other than military bases and the larger cities like Moscow, Sochi and St Petersburg there is not much in the way or useful civilization.
 
A fun thought experiment by General Knowledge:


I don't think the world is necessarily well served by the splintering of Russia wholesale, anymore than than China, the U.S. or Canada.

There is certainly a case to be made, in theory for some geo-political re-arranging where nations are not contiguous geographically, or where a population within a country demonstrably has no desire to be there.

But its one thing to imagine, in theory some peaceful, or brief struggle shifts that result in a smattering of either new independent nations or shifts of territory from one to another; but wholesale division certainly runs the risk
of instability, and resource fights, and inequity in resource sharing, amongst other things.

I'm also not a particular fan of nationalism or ethno-states.

In full credit to the video in question, much of that complexity is discussed.
 
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There are also reports of desperate fleeing Russian soldiers calling their relatives to phone the Russian military command to ask them what to do because their direct communications are unavailable!

In the first days of the war, we learned that their operational communications network relied on the Ukrainian telecom network. Which they bombed.

They tried to take out Ukrainian military comms. Musk and Starlink worked around it. This is actually a major development. For the first time in history private sector space operators are impacting the battlefield.
 

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