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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Towered said:
Pardon me for saying so, but this a really big f*cking deal. Brilliant strategy and execution by the Ukrainian military to enable what will wind up as a crushing, humiliating defeat for the much vaunted Russian army.
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It is beyond brilliant. I've been talking to a bunch of folks who have served as planners on divisional staff or as brigade staff officers. What the Ukrainians have pulled off is amazing, especially when you understand how planning is done and the discipline involved to execute.

To start with, a division on the offensive will normally have phase lines for different units. "We'll get to xyz by HH:MM time." And usually when they get there, they stop. This gives the division, time to consolidate, move back the wounded and POWs, move up supplies, move up supporting forces like artillery and air defence. It also avoids units stepping on each other and friendly fire.

They showed extreme discipline in not slowing down to engage every unit. The brigades in front would bypass, while the brigade at the rear would mop up, allowing them to keep up the momentum. We saw the Ukrainians achieve their objectives quickly (probably Kupyansk) and transition the entire division and other forces to the attack, to encircle Russians at Izyum. They did this after 36 hrs, with no rest. And no reports of fratricide I've seen. They did this without the time to move up supplies and support, and move back prisoners. They did this despite the fog of war and not being totally aware of Russian intent or even the size of Russian forces. These are all extremely difficult things. Imagine the discipline it takes to not shoot back at every single thing shooting at you after 36 hrs with no sleep, in territory you didn't plan to take, in a fight exceeding all your plans.

And the other big point. A division is big. 10-20 000 troops. Hundreds of armoured vehicles and hundreds more trucks carrying food, ammunition and fuel. The Russians have satellites (IMINT). They have the ability to intercept electronic communications (ELINT). They have spies all over Ukraine (HUMINT). Either the Russians completely ignored all the intelligence they had. Or the Ukrainian commander somehow managed to hide an entire division and all their supplies. Either way he caught the Russians completely off guard.

All of this together is incredible. Anybody I talk to Western military circles is completely in shock.... And in awe of these guys. And the craziest part? The Ukrainian General Staff were skeptical that this plan would even work:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568256502481432577
 
kEiThZ said:
It is beyond brilliant. I've been talking to a bunch of folks who have served as planners on divisional staff or as brigade staff officers. What the Ukrainians have pulled off is amazing, especially when you understand how planning is done and the discipline involved to execute.

To start with, a division on the offensive will normally have phase lines for different units. "We'll get to xyz by HH:MM time." And usually when they get there, they stop. This gives the division, time to consolidate, move back the wounded and POWs, move up supplies, move up supporting forces like artillery and air defence. It also avoids units stepping on each other and friendly fire.

They showed extreme discipline in not slowing down to engage every unit. The brigades in front would bypass, while the brigade at the rear would mop up, allowing them to keep up the momentum. We saw the Ukrainians achieve their objectives quickly (probably Kupyansk) and transition the entire division and other forces to the attack, to encircle Russians at Izyum. They did this after 36 hrs, with no rest. And no reports of fratricide I've seen. They did this without the time to move up supplies and support, and move back prisoners. They did this despite the fog of war and not being totally aware of Russian intent or even the size of Russian forces. These are all extremely difficult things. Imagine the discipline it takes to not shoot back at every single thing shooting at you after 36 hrs with no sleep, in territory you didn't plan to take, in a fight exceeding all your plans.

And the other big point. A division is big. 10-20 000 troops. Hundreds of armoured vehicles and hundreds more trucks carrying food, ammunition and fuel. The Russians have satellites (IMINT). They have the ability to intercept electronic communications (ELINT). They have spies all over Ukraine (HUMINT). Either the Russians completely ignored all the intelligence they had. Or the Ukrainian commander somehow managed to hide an entire division and all their supplies. Either way he caught the Russians completely off guard.

All of this together is incredible. Anybody I talk to Western military circles is completely in shock.... And in awe of these guys. And the craziest part? The Ukrainian General Staff were skeptical that this plan would even work:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568256502481432577
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I would be curious to see how the Russian media is taking this.

You might have been right yesterday. Don't be surprised if we see a general mobilization in the future.

I suspect however that by initiating a general mobilization in Russia, Putin would essentially be admitting defeat.

A general mobilization would tell Russia and the world that Putin has lost control of the situation. In Russia that could be a very dangerous thing.
 
kEiThZ said:
I fear we may wake up to Putin declaring a general mobilization in Russia and probably Martial Law. And who knows what comes after.
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Would a general mobilization do anything beyond fill a million Russian coffins? Mikhail Khodaryonok doesn’t seem impressed on Russian state tv.

 
Richard White said:
I would be curious to see how the Russian media is taking this.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1568310989149605888

Richard White said:
You might have been right yesterday. Don't be surprised if we see a general mobilization in the future.

I suspect however that by initiating a general mobilization in Russia, Putin would essentially be admitting defeat.

A general mobilization would tell Russia and the world that Putin has lost control of the situation. In Russia that could be a very dangerous thing.
Click to expand...

I'm hoping he just declares martial law to crack down on dissent at home, blames Shoigu and Gerasimov and orders a withdrawal from Ukraine. But I fear he will attempt to escalate with mobilization. His whole career, it's been his go to play. That's all he knows. This is why it's important for the Ukrainians do deal as much damage as possible right now. This will create resistance to mobilization in Russia. And will ensure that any mobilization is ineffective in Ukraine.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Sec Gen., has said that Russia has deployed 80% of its ground forces in Ukraine. A quarter to a third of those are dead. And another quarter are injured. Ukraine has effectively taken half of Russia's army off the field. Trying to mobilize with these numbers means nobody to train conscripts and even worse equipment for the troops. It's only going to escalate casualties.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Would a general mobilization do anything beyond fill a million Russian coffins? Mikhail Khodaryonok doesn’t seem impressed on Russian state tv.

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Dictators aren't known for reasoned decision-making and consideration of somber and sage advice.
 
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It does appear to be more and more likely that Russians have just completely abandoned Izyum. Really is unbelievable whats going on, total collapse of Russia's northern front.

I have no idea what the hell Putin does now. I suspect he's still hesitant to declare total mobilization. I also still believe there is a risk of Putin trying to widen the conflict in the face of a certain defeat but who knows.

Edit: take with a grain of salt, but apparently Ukrainian troops have reached the outskirts of Lysychans'k. I find that almost unfathomable but multiple sources are claiming such.
 
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Bjays92 said:
It does appear to be more and more likely that Russians have just completely abandoned Izyum.
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That was yesterday's news. Right now the Ukrainians are fighting for places over 50-100 km from there.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568592199419416578

Maps are kinda pointless right now. Just look at Google Earth and where the fighting is reported. It's all moving faster than most mapmakers can keep up with.
 
Bjays92 said:
I have no idea what the hell Putin does now. I suspect he's still hesitant to declare total mobilization. I also still believe there is a risk of Putin trying to widen the conflict in the face of a certain defeat but who knows.
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He can try. But whatever he does will only make it worse for him and Russia. The last thing he wants is Western intervention piling on in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Consider what happens when Ukraine wins and joins the EU and NATO. This will also break Russia's gas stranglehold on Europe. Ukraine has substantial gas reserves in Donbas and offshore. And an existing pipeline network. And they'll be protected by NATO guarantees. Sanctions will further cut them off. Russia is going back to Soviet era living conditions for good.
 
kEiThZ said:
He can try. But whatever he does will only make it worse for him and Russia. The last thing he wants is Western intervention piling on in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Consider what happens when Ukraine wins and joins the EU and NATO. This will also break Russia's gas stranglehold on Europe. Ukraine has substantial gas reserves in Donbas and offshore. And an existing pipeline network. And they'll be protected by NATO guarantees. Sanctions will further cut them off. Russia is going back to Soviet era living conditions for good.
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He had literally created the very scenario that his actions were trying to deter - and did so at great social, economic and military cost to his nation. Not the first time in history that had happened. If he hadn't annexed Crimea (or stopped at that), Ukraine would still be bumbling along. Instead, Putin have awakened a tiger that handed his ass to him - while the West just had a sales demonstration of what old military tech could do.

AoD
 
Northern Light said:
In light of the how well the current campaign is going for Ukraine, and oddly timed story is out on potential weapons shortages there, and for western/NATO countries more broadly.

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Nothing oddly timed. Bare cupboards perk up potential aggressors. How is it that people still have not learnt this?

There'd be no war in Ukraine if they had 5000 Javelins and a thousand Leopards in February. And there'd be no Ukraine right now if they had to rely on countries like Canada and Germany to support them with the tools to defend themselves. The article reminds me of the Chinese bragging about sending blankets instead of weapons:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561661740240232449

The fact that most of the G7 other than the UK and US couldn't provide enough to even outfit a full brigade (or even a battalion in our case) is embarrassing. And has only strengthened the positions of the US and UK as the real guarantors of democracy in the world. Everybody else is fluff. And as I've predicted before, Poland is going to rise up the reputational ladder while countries like Canada and Germany descend.
 
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