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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

This collapse is spectacular. And the both the repression and blame game has started inside Russia.
 
A few notes here, largely lifted from the Institute for the Study of War's analysis on Twitter, though I'm also examining other sources. But the graphics below are from the preceding.

1662657492066.png


1662657469539.png


A note here, if you're looking at this map, in the upper 1/2, you will see a city/town named Kupiansk this is a major Russian military logistics hub, and the Ukranians appear to be within 50km of it.

It either is, or will be within artillery range in short order.

Should the Russian lose this node, they would be in a great deal of trouble (as if they aren't already).....

****

1662657689104.png


1662657710916.png


I'll just plug in a general twitter link that will send you to the above thread (s); and more:


*****

Further to the above, I've just encountered info that suggests that the Russians are in fact evacuating Kupiansk.

They are initially evacuating women and children; the military, so far, has been ordered to hold position, as I understand it.
 
Towered said:
Ooo, do share more - I'm fascinated with this stuff and mainstream media coverage is lacking.
Click to expand...

Some city councillors in St. Petersburg drafted a motion basically accusing Putin of weakening Russia by invading Ukraine.

The FSB is raiding the homes of various dissidents claiming there is some grand conspiracy to undermine Russia.

Igor Girkin is claiming that Russian military isn't acting competently on intelligence to blunt the Ukrainian offensive because there's traitors inside.

Also the Russian trolls are claiming they aren't fighting Ukrainians. But that these are tens or even hundreds of thousands of British SAS and American SEALs.

You can see the narrative developing. "We lost to NATO. And these traitors betrayed us.". Anything not to admit that they are absolutely getting their backsides handed to them by the "Little Russians".
 
kEiThZ said:
Some city councillors in St. Petersburg drafted a motion basically accusing Putin of weakening Russia by invading Ukraine.

The FSB is raiding the homes of various dissidents claiming there is some grand conspiracy to undermine Russia.

Igor Girkin is claiming that Russian military isn't acting competently on intelligence to blunt the Ukrainian offensive because there's traitors inside.

Also the Russian trolls are claiming they aren't fighting Ukrainians. But that these are tens or even hundreds of thousands of British SAS and American SEALs.

You can see the narrative developing. "We lost to NATO. And these traitors betrayed us.". Anything not to admit that they are absolutely getting their backsides handed to them by the "Little Russians".
Click to expand...
This in Guardian ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response ) expands on the above.

“The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia,” Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. “We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time.”

Girkin, a former Russian intelligence colonel who became a commander of the pro-Russian separatist forces in 2014, is arguably the most prominent voice within an increasingly loud and angry group of ultra-nationalist and pro-war bloggers who have taken to berating the Kremlin for its failure to achieve its tactical objectives as the fighting in Ukraine has entered its seventh month.


After Ukraine’s latest counter-offensive in the south and the north-east of the country, these bloggers – who have so far been granted a public platform denied to many – have intensified their criticism of the Kremlin, slamming the army’s inadequate performance in the war and urging Vladimir Putin to declare a full-scale mobilisation."
 
kEiThZ said:
This is actually how all of NATO trains. Contrary to popular belief (as even some in this forum think), our troops are not brainless drones. You are briefed two things:

1) Your objective.

2) Commander's intent.

You are also briefed on branch and sequel plans if there are any.

What does this mean in real life? It means that regardless of whether you are a corporal or a major general, you understand the plan and the vision. It means that you not only know what your objective is, but also what to do if you accomplish or fail to achieve your objective. We expect even Privates who hit their goals to then go beyond, because they know what the overall plan is. And since everyone knows the plan, if one leader goes down the next in line steps up and knows what to do. This doctrine is called "Mission Command". Video to explain here:


One of the biggest transformations to the Ukrainian Armed Forces was transforming them from a hierarchical, top-down Soviet style military to a NATO style Mission Command military. That half a decade of training that Canada and all the NATO partners did? That was to teach them how to think like us.

You can teach a monkey how to shoot a gun. Just look at the Russian Army. Teaching said monkey how to, "Think globally. Act locally." is a whole other ballgame. The Russians don't tell their troops anything. They tell them to go to xyz coordinate and hold it till they die. They aren't told the plan. They get overrun? They don't destroy their vehicles (as we expect our troops to do in that situation). Their officer goes down and they don't know what to do, because nobody else was briefed on the overall plan and their unit's objectives. And their officers take zero initiative. Because initiative is not rewarded. Hell, if you risk and lose, you might be severely punished.

How our militaries work are a reflection of our culture. An all volunteer Western military would never accept the kind of treatment and leadership the Russians impose on their troops. Our folks expect to know the plan. And they expect to hear the truth regardless of how bad it is. Our folks expect a two way relationship of trust built on competence and confidence.

PS. I hope everybody watches the video. 9 mins. But it's worthwhile. You might even start recognizing the behaviour in leaders around you.
Click to expand...
I wasn't implying otherwise, but even in western armies there are sections, fire teams, etc. Many of video clips I've seen depict a single gun vs. a gun line, a lone armoured unit or a group of maximum two or three members performing a task. This seems to be raising the concept of 'commander's intent ' and communications to an impressive level, during wartime, in a military that, while relatively large, not extensively equipped a matter of months ago.

They are also displaying an impressive level of ingenuity and adaptation to deliver just about anything that will go boom to the enemy.
 
lenaitch said:
I wasn't implying otherwise, but even in western armies there are sections, fire teams, etc.
Click to expand...

The Ukrainians have those too.

lenaitch said:
Many of video clips I've seen depict a single gun vs. a gun line, a lone armoured unit or a group of maximum two or three members performing a task.
Click to expand...

This isn't different doctrine. They are reducing the density of their forces and avoiding massing to create vulnerability. This is important because they are the side with less artillery and airpower. You can see them massing now, during offensives.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1567883017015726082

lenaitch said:
They are also displaying an impressive level of ingenuity and adaptation to deliver just about anything that will go boom to the enemy.
Click to expand...

They have. And we have plenty to learn from them. But it's important to understand that a lot of their skill did come from something we spent over half a decade developing. Talk to Ukrainians from 2015. Or the NATO trainers who went there. They'll tell you the UAF was no different than the Russians back then.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I don’t see that on the feeds I watch. I am hearing of Russians disguising as civilians, but not of a rout.
Click to expand...

I'd say soldiers dropping their uniforms and running is usually signs of collapse. Sure, it's not everywhere. But this is the start. And look how far the Ukrainians are advancing in 24-48 hrs:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567893944574394368

Not technically a rout. But also attacks that far deep into Russian lines would not be possible unless those lines are actually collapsing. Can the Russians find their footing and re-establish defensive lines somewhere? Possibly. And probably too. But for now this is still a developing collapse. And it's happening in multiple areas. Not just Kharkiv.
 
It seems like this war may lead to the other shoe dropping for Russia's place as a global power. I would be quite shocked if this lead to further disintegration of the Russian state. Russia could have a future as a significant power within Europe but that would require it to pivot from defining itself in opposition to Europe/the West to joining it. Maybe in another generation or two.
 
This is the end of Russia as a European power. It's also the end of their dream of the Russian sphere of influence (Ruski Mir). The question left is how much influence they have elsewhere (Africa, Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia). And whether they survive as a country when lots of angry veterans (mostly ethnic minorities from outlying regions) come home.
 
A look at estimated territory status.

1st image is 2 days ago, second is current. Pink/red colouration is/was Russian territory.

Note that I can't confirm the source or the accuracy of info, but I believe it to be credible.

2 Days ago:

1662691131113.png


Current:

1662691210880.png


That, if true, is a massive move in 48 hours.
 
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