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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Richard White said:
The same mentality applies to Russia, the moment one nuke be tactical or otherwise gets used offensively the US will start turning Russia into a crater. Putin would then lose all support and Russia would likely capitulate just like Japan did in WW2.
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I wouldn't worry about Russian turning into a crater. That kind of escalation isn't in anybody's interest. What will happen is that the US and UK (most of NATO will be too cowardly to join) will destroy a lot of Russian forces in Ukraine, putting Ukrainian ground forces in a much better position to win quickly. The Russians will also be told that if they escalate outside Ukraine, NATO will go toe-to-toe. And if they nuke Western forces? Well....

But given that we've seeing Russia's own missiles get returned to sender, would they really want to take that chance with their nuclear deterrent, only to have possible follow up from the US? I doubt it. As the video points out, the safety of Russia proper and Putin's regime are the most important thing. Ukraine is not worth a nuclear war to Putin. And definitely not to others in his regime.
 
kEiThZ said:
(most of NATO will be too cowardly to join)
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Or in our case, unable to join with the equipment we have available for such a scenario. Leopards are great but with an aging navy and air force I wouldn't want to get involved in a large scale conflict.

@kEiThZ correct me if I am wrong but most of our military equipment is horribly outdated?
 
Richard White said:
Or in our case, unable to join with the equipment we have available for such a scenario. Leopards are great but with an aging navy and air force I wouldn't want to get involved in a large scale conflict.
Click to expand...

We're up against the Russians. Our Hornets and Auroras could definitely play. Ground and Naval forces would mostly be irrelevant in a limited Ukraine intervention. And we already have Hornets that are forward deployed in the Baltics and Romania.

Whether we have the political will to do so, is debatable. It's pretty clear that we're closer to Germany and France and Italy in resolve than Poland and the Baltics. Thankfully, the UK and US have no such hesitation. They will flatten anything with Russian markings inside Ukraine if there's escalation.

Richard White said:
@kEiThZ correct me if I am wrong but most of our military equipment is horribly outdated?
Click to expand...

It is. But Russian kit isn't great. And their training is practically non-existent. We have enough of an edge to contribute. That said, the Brits and Americans won't wait in this scenario for NATO. They will use their most advanced aircraft (lower risk to pilots) and start working to help Ukraine win. Once they own the skies over Ukraine, it's over for Russia. And really by the time NATO decides anything, the Brits and Americans will have established air superiority over Ukraine and probably taken out a chunk of the Black Sea fleet.

Long term, like I've said in the other thread, we need to have a discussion about our place in the world. And not just our place in the world, but how we want to contribute. There's some incredible revolutionary changes in warfare happening and a bizarre twist of having so much obsolete stuff is that we can make drastic changes. But this isn't something the military can decide on its own. The government has to figure this out. I'm a fan of (and advocate for) drastic changes including base closures and getting rid of some capabilities (like tanks). Get a small force that can make meaningful contributions instead of trying to strut around like we're a "middle power", that nobody cares much about these days.
 
Only kinda-sorta related to the thread but I came across this interesting analysis of US foreign engagement mindset circa 2013. I don't think it is particularly relevant now, but it does throw a light on foreign engagements and the political mindset when things go off-script.

warontherocks.com

The Lost Lessons of "Black Hawk Down" - War on the Rocks

Today marks the 20th anniversary of The Battle of Mogadishu, the American operation in Somalia later immortalized by Mark Bowden’s seminal non-fiction
warontherocks.com
 
A lot of people love to screech about American imperialism. Until somebody else invades or threatens their country. Or they have a large natural disaster. Or it destabilizes and falls apart (Balkans, Somalia, Rwanda, etc). Then it becomes, "Why won't the Americans help us? Damn imperialists only care about their own interests."

A live demonstration of this is Pakistanis complaining about insufficient American (and broader Western) aid for the disaster in their country. This after they turned their country into a corrupt, kleptocratic nuclear backed safe haven for anti-Western Jihadists. A year ago they were gloating about the Taliban defeating the US/NATO in Afghanistan. Now they are complaining that we aren't cutting large cheques fast enough.

Personally, I'm not all that worried about Western intervention in Ukraine going awry. The only way that happens is if support dries up and we get a frozen conflict. That was a worrisome possibility a few weeks ago. But now it's clear that the Ukrainians were getting a lot more than they were using. They were just stocking up for a big push.
 
kEiThZ said:
A live demonstration of this is Pakistanis complaining about insufficient American (and broader Western) aid for the disaster in their country. This after they turned their country into a corrupt, kleptocratic nuclear backed safe haven for anti-Western Jihadists. A year ago they were gloating about the Taliban defeating the US/NATO in Afghanistan. Now they are complaining that we aren't cutting large cheques fast enough.
Click to expand...
Classic example of biting the hand that feeds. I would be more sympathetic to their plight if they didn't engage in consistent, strident anti-Western hysteria. The poor, suffering ordinary citizens can look to their own pathetic government to place the blame for any anemic assistance.
 
Towered said:
Classic example of biting the hand that feeds. I would be more sympathetic to their plight if they didn't engage in consistent, strident anti-Western hysteria. The poor, suffering ordinary citizens can look to their own pathetic government to place the blame for any anemic assistance.
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It goes way beyond that. They were duplicitous all through the war in Afghanistan. And then jumped into bed with China, for an anti-India partnership. Hating the West was part of the package. And now they seem surprised that the West isn't onboard to bail out a country that harboured terrorists and insurgents who killed our citizens and soldiers.

Quite a few, both at home and in the diaspora, are crying that it's racism, citing the focus on Ukraine as evidence. They don't seem to get how this works.
 
1662226817965.png


From
https://twitter.com/x/status/1566082323002572800
 
kEiThZ said:
Europe is starting to break just as the economic war with Russia ramps up.

www.reuters.com

Tens of thousands protest in Prague against Czech government, EU and NATO

An estimated 70,000 people protested in Prague against the Czech government on Saturday, calling on the ruling coalition to do more to control soaring energy prices and voicing opposition to the European Union and NATO.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...

No surprise there, with the Communists and the Populists. They have been seeding these groups and the gas war is transparently obvious. Only 70K though, that's kinda low.

AoD
 
If the Germans won’t support Leo2 transfers, let’s send more of our Canadian-produced LAVs, for starters. Did this prior commitment below arrive?

en.defence-ua.com

Canada Supply Ukraine with Brand New Armoured Combat Support Vehicles, High-Resolution Cameras for Bayraktar TB2 UAV | Defense Express

Canada will send 39 LAV ACSV Super Bison infantry support combat vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as well as additional six high-resolution cameras for use on Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drones
en.defence-ua.com en.defence-ua.com
 
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