2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[DSCToronto]

Can someone explain why the grain exporting deal with Russia is necessary? All the countries bordering the Black Sea have exclusive economic zones and I cannot see why grain ships from Ukraine could not simply remain within these Zones and avoid the 'international waters' further out.

Of course, Russia could certainly still attack them but surely NATO could state that any attacks on shipping inside the exclusive economic zones of its members would be 'firmly responded to". The Montreux Convention give free passage to (almost) all ships through the Bosphorus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montr...20 July 1936,the Black and Mediterranean seas.

No doubt there are reasons but ....

 

[lenaitch]

That map shows the Crimean Peninsula and its waters still within Ukrainian territorial waters, which they haven't controlled since 2014 when Russia 'annexed' it. Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov are probably not functional and any shipments would have to pass through the Kerch Strait. Besides, I'm guessing Ukraine has little navy the spare to ensure safe passage.

Besides, when has Russia cared about another nation's EEZ?

 

[kEiThZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682010156807143425

 

[Towered]

I'm surprised that they bothered to announce that. They should just strike ships silently.

 

[kEiThZ]

I'm surprised that they bothered to announce that. They should just strike ships silently.

Insurance rates go up immediately when they announce. And at least some carriers will immediately stop service. Part of it is to basically show how absurd the Russian position is, by imposing the exact same conditions on them.

Now Russia has to provide protection to all shipping at high cost. Or risk a Ukrainian strike creating further loss of service and even higher insurance rates.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not the greatest news.

A Sobering Analysis Of Ukraine's Counteroffensive From The Front

A military analyst just returned from touring the Ukraine front and has offered his blunt take on how the counteroffensive is really going.

www.thedrive.com

 

[kEiThZ]

Not the greatest news.

A Sobering Analysis Of Ukraine's Counteroffensive From The Front

A military analyst just returned from touring the Ukraine front and has offered his blunt take on how the counteroffensive is really going.

www.thedrive.com

Agree to a point. But I also think not giving them everything they need has substantially limited their ability more than the West wants to admit. Expecting them to do combined arms with no airpower, no long range missiles and a shortage of tanks is a bit of a high bar.

I'm still optimistic that the attritional fight is going well and we'll see breakthroughs in August. Not to the extent I would have hoped. But we'll see something.

 

[Towered]

They're chipping away and liberating small amounts of territory every single day. Keep in mind that they also value the lives of their soldiers and do their best not to waste them, while their enemy has zero regard for human life. That, combined with so far not having received jets and long range missiles makes for a difficult situation. I get rather rankled when we in the West get to sit and watch this tragedy from a safe distance and then whine that the good guys aren't winning fast enough.

Give them the goddamn tools and they'll do it rather than hamstring them for nonsensical reasons and complain.

What about "as long as it takes"? That's the line Ukraine's allies keep publicly spouting. If some are getting impatient, then shut up and send a lot more weapons that will make a difference.

 

[kEiThZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682292437044154368

 

[Northern Light]

I don't get Twitter previews, and unfortunately, that link also doesn't let me see the subject/preview either w/o signing in.

I assume it may be the Girkin news, either way, a link to a story on his arrest:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/21/europe/igor-girkin-arrest-russia-intl/index.html

 

[Admiral Beez]

I'm still optimistic that the attritional fight is going well and we'll see breakthroughs in August. Not to the extent I would have hoped. But we'll see something.

Me too. Here's some info on the challenges facing the sappers.

Breach and Breakthrough

The Challenges of 21st Century Combined Arms Breaching in Ukraine

mickryan.substack.com

 

[kEiThZ]

Me too. Here's some info on the challenges facing the sappers.

Breach and Breakthrough

The Challenges of 21st Century Combined Arms Breaching in Ukraine

mickryan.substack.com

Big fan of General Ryan. I subscribe to his substack and am working my way through his book.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682292437044154368

Totally expected - it's a common theme throughout this war.

AoD

 

[Admiral Beez]

I'm 50/50 on this. Bakhmut is useful to pin down Russian forces if there's an assault coming soon. It may not be, if there's not.

The Russian regulars have been given many months to build up their defensive lines whilst the AFU was distracted fighting Wagner for Bakhmut. We all wonder why Russia was fighting for the seemingly strategically insignificant town, but perhaps it was always to grind down Prigozhin while buying time to build up a near-impenetrable wall of mines, trenches and fortifications across southern Ukraine. This would support Putin’s faith in the long game, where he believes Ukraine’s slow progress will compete with the West’s waning attention span and leadership changes.

 

[afransen]

The Russian regulars have been given many months to build up their defensive lines whilst the AFU was distracted fighting Wagner for Bakhmut. We all wonder why Russia was fighting for the seemingly strategically insignificant town, but perhaps it was always to grind down Prigozhin while buying time to build up a near-impenetrable wall of mines, trenches and fortifications across southern Ukraine. This would support Putin’s faith in the long game, where he believes Ukraine’s slow progress will compete with the West’s waning attention span and leadership changes.

Russia's strategy is only to outwait western attention spans, but it is going to be calamitously expensive for him to do so. It is rumoured he will be invoking another round of mobilization. He is feeding Russia's future of young men to the meat grinder, if they can't escape abroad first.