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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

kEiThZ said:
www.theglobeandmail.com

Ukraine plans to ask Canada for Leopard battle tanks, Zelensky’s adviser says

Kyiv intends to make the request when it clears a bureaucratic hurdle with Germany, which has resisted pressure to allow the re-export of the German-made tanks
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com

Let's see if the Germans provide the re-export permits.
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They will. They are going to be under intense pressure from NATO to do just that.

The article is not far off the mark when it says that armored vehicles will be required to end this war. Russia is getting their footing back and if something is not done soon it may not be good for Ukraine. They held out this long but if they do not have munitions and vehicles on the front lines they will not last forever.

At some point, someone will need to blink and provide the means to end this war. A proxy war is all fine and dandy but it does not solve anything.
 
The cynical part of me thinks that it's in the military interests of the US and NATO to drag this conflict on for a longer period. By keeping it going as a slow burn, they can sit back and gradually degrade Russia's military and economic power to the point that they won't recover for decades, or ever even, at comparatively little cost in terms of lives, equipment and financial resources lost.
 
Towered said:
The cynical part of me thinks that it's in the military interests of the US and NATO to drag this conflict on for a longer period. By keeping it going as a slow burn, they can sit back and gradually degrade Russia's military and economic power to the point that they won't recover for decades, or ever even, at comparatively little cost in terms of lives, equipment and financial resources lost.
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Honestly, overwhelming force is required to win this war.

Russia will not hesitate to involve Iran, China and any other degenerate state they can find to win the war. I know it would be a significant escalation however going in with the full backing of NATO like they did in Serbia will win this war.

Bombing the crap out of everything, driving in tanks.. that is what wins wars. Providing weapons and hoping for the best does not.

Pummel the enemy into submission with overwhelming force.
 
Richard White said:
Honestly, overwhelming force is required to win this war.

Russia will not hesitate to involve Iran, China and any other degenerate state they can find to win the war. I know it would be a significant escalation however going in with the full backing of NATO like they did in Serbia will win this war.

Bombing the crap out of everything, driving in tanks.. that is what wins wars. Providing weapons and hoping for the best does not.

Pummel the enemy into submission with overwhelming force.
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Most wars don't end with a decisive and massive battlefield victory. I'm taking a course right now on the logic or rationale of wars and the general trend (though not always true) is that wars end in some form of negotiation or settlement.

Putin is not ready to negotiate right now but that doesn't mean he will never be. Negotiation still remains the most likely outcome of the war.

Also you advocate sending in NATO while also saying Russia will not hesitate to involve China. So you're basically advocating world war 3 and mass global destruction even by your own logic, when there is zero need for such a thing right now.

I feel terribly for the Ukrainians going through this and we should absolutely up our weapons supplies to them, we don't want this war dragging out, but creating the largest conflict in the history of the world is definitely not the way to end this war quickly or minimize suffering.
 
Richard White said:
Once this war is over.. is there a modern day Marshall Plan to rebuild Ukraine or is this going to be another Iraq where we leave and things go to hell?
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And we are already working on a modern day Marshall plan. Ukraine is in Europe not the ME so ofc we'll rebuild them. Welcome to how the world works.
 
There's a good chance that this will be drawn out for as long as possible on both sides. NATO/Western countries are having a boom in arms manufacturing and money is easily made during war times.

I see Russia trying to draw this out so that there will no actual end to the war but leading to a situation of a divided East and West Ukraine akin to North and South Korea; this way Russia gets a buffer zone between them and the West. This is considering that Russia is able to function as a stable entity. So far there are evidence of cracks within it considering you now have the Wagner Group under Prigozhin vying for power against the Russian Military. And lets not forget Chechen leader Kadyrov who's remained suspicious quiet lately. Having "technically" illegal paramilitary groups operating and competing against the state is a recipe for civil war. At some point if Putin is still around, he might have had enough of these other paramilitary groups and have them eliminated.

That's my best read of the crystal ball.
 
Towered said:
The cynical part of me thinks that it's in the military interests of the US and NATO to drag this conflict on for a longer period. By keeping it going as a slow burn, they can sit back and gradually degrade Russia's military and economic power to the point that they won't recover for decades, or ever even, at comparatively little cost in terms of lives, equipment and financial resources lost.
Click to expand...

I know this is the conspiracy theory. But it doesn't make sense in any depth of consideration. Helping Ukraine needs to be v looked at in the wider geopolitical context. Most notably China's threats to Taiwan. From this perspective, helping defeat Russia quickly is both a better deterrent and saves more Western military capacity for future conflict.

I would argue the real issue is simply fear of escalation and bureaucratic bungling. The madman theory has worked on the West for so long, nobody realized how naked the emperor actually was. As they do, support is increasing.

Ukraine will prevail. I have zero doubts about that. It's just a question of how and when they get there. And unfortunately Western incompetence and self-doubt is killing far too many good Ukrainians.
 
Bjays92 said:
Also you advocate sending in NATO while also saying Russia will not hesitate to involve China. So you're basically advocating world war 3 and mass global destruction even by your own logic, when there is zero need for such a thing right now.
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While I agree that involving NATO forces directly is nuts, the idea that China will get directly involved is also quite the reach. China has no real geopolitical interest in Ukraine, either way. The real risk is that China might attempt a play for Taiwan if the perceive the West as having been substantially weakened.
 
kEiThZ said:
While I agree that involving NATO forces directly is nuts, the idea that China will get directly involved is also quite the reach. China has no real geopolitical interest in Ukraine, either way. The real risk is that China might attempt a play for Taiwan if the perceive the West as having been substantially weakened.
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Or demonstrates that it lacks resolve.
 
Looks like the separatist-mind ethnic Russians in Georgia may be rethinking their plans. With little hope now of Russian military intervention, the "South Ossetians" likely understand that any provocation whatsoever will spark a decisive military action by Georgia, who's just waiting for any excuse, to clear them out.


The Georgians clearly know where they stand, and their justifiable Russophobia is strong.


 
Admiral Beez said:
Looks like the separatist-mind ethnic Russians in Georgia may be rethinking their plans. With little hope now of Russian military intervention, the "South Ossetians" likely understand that any provocation whatsoever will spark a decisive military action by Georgia, who's just waiting for any excuse, to clear them out.


The Georgians clearly know where they stand, and their justifiable Russophobia is strong.


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I suspect that all the former Warsaw Pact countries and now-independent-former-Soviet countries and regions that have a sizable ethnic Russian population embedded in them are having internal discussions
 
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