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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Towered said:
Poland has announced they'll be sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine!

I think NATO is getting antsy about ending this conflict sooner rather than later.
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At this rate we may end up sending troops into Ukraine in the next few months.

It would provoke Russia but if they were invited by Ukraine and stopped at the Russian Border (after retaking Crimea, the Donbas, etc) it would not permit Russia to say they were invaded by NATO.
 
Richard White said:
At this rate we may end up sending troops into Ukraine in the next few months.

It would provoke Russia but if they were invited by Ukraine and stopped at the Russian Border (after retaking Crimea, the Donbas, etc) it would not permit Russia to say they were invaded by NATO.
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No, this will not happen. Period.

We have been balking at sending modern tanks for months, same with advanced missile systems (they're finally getting Patriots) no modern aircraft etc. etc.

Troops on the ground in Ukraine will NEVER happen outside of direct Russian attacks on Europe. I am not trying to tear you down, but I really don't understand where these assertions come from Richard.
 
Bjays92 said:
No, this will not happen. Period.

We have been balking at sending modern tanks for months, same with advanced missile systems (they're finally getting Patriots) no modern aircraft etc. etc.

Troops on the ground in Ukraine will NEVER happen outside of direct Russian attacks on Europe. I am not trying to tear you down, but I really don't understand where these assertions come from Richard.
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I am just hypothesizing that given the sudden increase in hardware and a desire to see this come to an end that NATO may take a different approach.

I know it is out of the box thinking however it would get things moving pretty quickly. Conscripts would be no match for NATO troops and it would effectively put an end to the war in short order.

Russia is not as powerful as they make themselves out to be, hence the help from Iran and Belarus.

I also doubt that Russia would openly fire on NATO troops on Ukrainian soil after being invited in by Ukraine. If they were on Russian soil (pre-2014 borders) it would be a different story. Doing so would invite a much more potent response.
 
Richard White said:
At this rate we may end up sending troops into Ukraine in the next few months.
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Zero chance. And we don't even have warning orders to prepare for such a deployment as would be expected.

If there's any intervention (and it's a very long shot), it would be with airpower and a handful of special forces on the ground.
 
kEiThZ said:
Nice of us to buy stuff for Ukraine that even we don't have!
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You will be happy to see this very thought getting media play in the The Star:

www.thestar.com

Canadian Army waiting for air-defence systems as Ottawa buys equipment for Ukraine

Multiple Army commanders have described the lack of such weapons as a key deficiency for the Canadian military.
www.thestar.com www.thestar.com

Several former military officers speaking out on that subject. For the record, I concur that this would seem to be a wise purchase.

From the article:

1673544805550.png

1673544820418.png


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The excuse provided to the media inquiry on why we didn't have this on order for ourselves was as follows:

1673544935369.png


****

Of note, the cost for the system for Ukraine is now public at 406M

As purchases of military hardware go, that's relatively cheap, and a small fraction of the annual budget.
 
Towered said:
Poland has announced they'll be sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine!

I think NATO is getting antsy about ending this conflict sooner rather than later.
Click to expand...
I can’t help but place much of the blame for the coming fall of Solodar upon the West’s vacillation and timidity over sending Leopard 2 and other modern tanks to Ukraine in December 2022. If we send Ukraine these tanks now, we are demonstrably proving that the reasons given previously for withholding the tanks (mainly that the AFU does not have the ability/experience to operate nor the logistics to support modern MBTs) were bogus. What could have possibly changed in Ukraine from December when European leaders said tanks were impossible to January when the same leaders are saying tanks are essential?

This pussyfooting around on the part of the West is prolonging this war and costing Ukrainians lives. Let’s give the AFU what they need.
 
I'm increasingly worried that the West is letting Putin turn Ukraine into Syria or Chechnya. Ukraine will prevail. But it will be a Pyrrhic victory over a pile of rubble. I wish the prevaricating would stop. Give them what they need to smash the Russians once and for all.

At this point, it's not even that much. I'm not convinced the Ukrainians need fighter jets. Air defence, armour, artillery and supply trucks. They'll kick the Russians out.
 
Northern Light said:
You will be happy to see this very thought getting media play in the The Star:

www.thestar.com

Canadian Army waiting for air-defence systems as Ottawa buys equipment for Ukraine

Multiple Army commanders have described the lack of such weapons as a key deficiency for the Canadian military.
www.thestar.com www.thestar.com

Several former military officers speaking out on that subject. For the record, I concur that this would seem to be a wise purchase.

From the article:

View attachment 450081
View attachment 450082

***

The excuse provided to the media inquiry on why we didn't have this on order for ourselves was as follows:

View attachment 450083

****

Of note, the cost for the system for Ukraine is now public at 406M

As purchases of military hardware go, that's relatively cheap, and a small fraction of the annual budget.
Click to expand...

What that piece doesn't mention is that the GBAD project has lots of problems because of how threats have evolved and because that project was mostly designed during the Afghanistan era to counter light artillery and rockets from insurgents.

Real air defence requires a layered approach with ballistic missile defence, long range and short range systems. That would cost a lot more than a billion dollars. But this is Canada. So for the sake of the box ticking exercise that is usually defence policy, the $1B might yield two NASAMS battalion which will let the government say we have air defence.

This Twitter thread from a currently active Army Lieutenant Colonel should help provide some context.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521706269291302912
 
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kEiThZ said:
Nice of us to buy stuff for Ukraine that even we don't have!
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The only reason we have defence spending at all is to deter and if necessary kill Russians. If Ukrainians can do that without any cost in Canadian lives, it‘s a good use of my tax dollars. What’s Canada going to do with such kit beyond letting it expire unused in a warehouse, same as everyone else’s SAM and other close to BBD systems.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
The only reason we have defence spending at all is to deter and if necessary kill Russians. keep our allies from ignoring us completely. If Ukrainians can do that without any cost in Canadian lives, it‘s a good use of my tax dollars. What’s Canada going to do with such kit beyond letting it expire unused in a warehouse, same as everyone else’s SAM and other close to BBD systems.
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Fixed the first bit for you.

Do you have a fire extinguisher, medication or even sunscreen in your house? What do you do when it expires?

Keeping emergency preparedness kit and cycling through that which becomes dated or expired is part of sovereign nationhood. Other that SAR assets, I suppose we don't need any military kit - until we do. If/when that day comes, where are we going to get it? Some of this stuff takes years to acquire, even by nations that have a functioning procurement system.
 
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Was just watching some news from DW News (great place to get another picture of the war and Germany's position) and it seems the gears are slowly turning to get the Leopard II to Ukraine. But at the moment the loggerhead is with Germany and their reluctance to authorize other countries to send the Leopard II. The hope is that when NATO comes together to meet the tanks will be approved by Germany. Right now the UK has offered their tanks as a way to prod Germany along to accepting the current need and releasing the tanks (Germany has the final say if others can send German made military vehicles...including Canada's). Poland the other day has announced they will send their Leopard II to Ukraine, this is of course adding on the pressure on Germany to hurry up and make a decision. Germany via the Schulz government is the hold up.

Of note, if others are wondering why the US tanks aren't as favourable as the Leopard II it sort of boils down to logistics and maintenance. Retired Gen. Mark Hertling mentioned that American tanks are much heavier, more difficult to get parts and are huge gas consumers in comparison to the German Leopards.
 
Admiral Beez said:
The only reason we have defence spending at all is to deter and if necessary kill Russians. If Ukrainians can do that without any cost in Canadian lives, it‘s a good use of my tax dollars. What’s Canada going to do with such kit beyond letting it expire unused in a warehouse, same as everyone else’s SAM and other close to BBD systems.
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By this logic, we should just shut down our military and pay protection money to the Americans. Reduce our practice of foreign policy to cutting cheques.

Note that I didn't suggest that we shouldn't buy the Ukrainians NASAMS. I simply suggested that we should similarly equip ourselves. And had we done that before the war, we'd have been able to help the Ukrainians much earlier. We're now paying for a new system. It'll be months to be manufactured and delivered.
 
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